New Poll: Arab Americans Are Leaving the Republican Party and Have Surprising 2028 Favorites

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Cite

Thakker, P. (2026, October 27). New Poll: Arab Americans Are Leaving the Republican Party and Have Surprising 2028 Favorites. Zeteo. https://zeteo.com/p/new-poll-arab-americans-are-leaving

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Zeteo · collected 2026-10-27 · by Prem Thakker commentary

Quick Summary

A new national poll conducted by John Zogby Strategies and commissioned by the Arab American Institute reveals shifting political affiliations among Arab Americans ahead of the 2028 presidential election. The survey shows that only 31% identify as independents, reflecting a growing rejection of traditional party lines. Regarding the 2028 primaries, Kamala Harris leads Democratic candidates with 30%, while Donald Trump Jr. is favored by Republican respondents at 30%. Notably, 90% of those polled consider the Gaza crisis very or somewhat important in their voting decisions.
Written by AI on 2026-10-29, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

A new national poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute and conducted by John Zogby Strategies reveals that Arab Americans are increasingly leaving the Republican Party ahead of the 2028 presidential election. The survey, shared exclusively with Zeteo, indicates that 90% of respondents find the issue of Israel and Gaza highly consequential to their voting decisions. The poll also highlights a growing dissatisfaction among Arab Americans with the economic policies and divisive rhetoric from the Republican Party, leading many to seek alternative political affiliations. Prem Thakker asserts that this shift reflects a broader rejection of bigotry and divisiveness in favor of more inclusive policies.

Written for “Arab Americans Shifting Political Allegiances” on 2026-10-29, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
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The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 109678 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-29

Story

📰 Arab Americans Shifting Political Allegiances
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Hindu
Hedges 4 of 31 claims Outlet record 77/100
“The articles discuss different topics: one about a poll of Arab Americans' political preferences, and the other about Israeli politics and potential coalition formation.”
Dawn
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 55 claims Outlet record 71/100
“The articles discuss different aspects related to Arab/Muslim Americans and their political involvement, but describe separate incidents: one is a national poll about voting preferences for 2028, while the other reports on voter registration efforts in Texas ahead of the midterms.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 35 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of political engagement among Arab populations, with Article A focusing on a poll about Arab Americans' voting preferences for the 2028 U.S. election and Article B reporting high voter turnout among Palestinian citizens in Israel's parliamentary elections.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 7 of 26 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different groups (Arab Americans and Israeli Arabs) in distinct contexts (polling for future elections vs. current election turnout).”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 2 of 25 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different topics related to Arab Americans and Israeli politics, not the same specific incident.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 5 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different topics: one covers a poll about Arab Americans' political preferences, while the other reports on Israeli parliamentary election results for Arab parties.”
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Politics
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1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
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Zeteo · 210 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
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Who wrote this

Prem Thakker
15 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Now, a few things will happen.
🔮 The findings are fascinating, from whom Arab Americans support in 2028 (on both sides of the aisle), to how many identify as socialists or MAGA Republicans, to how consequential Israel and Gaza will be to their votes.
🔮 And while corporate media will somehow treat it like just another story, we most certainly will not.
🔮 “Part of it, quite frankly, was spiritual for me because here I was in the land of the Bible for reasons that one day God will reveal, but a land that He had chosen,” he continued.
🔮 On this day in 2001, President George W. Bush announced the formation of what would become the Department of Homeland Security, now a key part of Donald Trump’s authoritarian state.
🔮 By May this year, a solicitation appeared on the website for her merchandise, “The Clapback Collection,” allowing users to inquire about Crockett’s consulting services and more.
🔮 His detention order expires on Oct. 28 – which would be a more than four-month stint in prison, with no allegations made public.
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Israel Has Kidnapped Another American Teenager
🔮 That Kirk would become a martyr, a vessel for even more far-right political domination?
🔮 Manzur joined Prem in a barn-burning conversation about how U.S.-funded violence in Bangladesh shaped her foreign policy views, how Trump is using the Iran War to make massive amounts of cash and avoid scrutiny on the Epstein files, and how the people in charge are “willing to burn down the planet” for their own greed.
🔮 On Friday, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani celebrated Raksha Bandhan, a traditionally Hindu festival that honors the bond between brothers and sisters, by visiting India Home, a community center for South Asian seniors.
Also by Prem Thakker
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 15 articles by Prem Thakker →

Topics

Arab Americans Gaza Israel Republicans Zeteo

Subjects

Arab Americans NORP · 10× Israel GPE · 6× Gaza GPE · 4× Republicans NORP · 3× Arab American NORP · 2× Democratic NORP · 2× Republican NORP · 2× Trump PERSON · 2× Zeteo ORG · 2× the Arab American Institute ORG · 2×

Narrative

And now what they’re saying is this appeal to bigotry, the ruinous nature of the policies on the economy, and dividing people – they’re saying ‘Enough’s enough, and we’re rejecting it,’ and so in many ways, this is a community that is pretty much where the country is.” Check out more from Zeteo:
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-29
🔮 The findings are fascinating, from whom Arab Americans support in 2028 (on both sides of the aisle), to how many identify as socialists or MAGA Republicans, to how consequential Israel and Gaza will be to their votes.

Claims (27 extracted, 0 hedged)

While the commentariat often talk about Arab Americans, seldom do we hear from them. asserted
we → talk → them
A new national poll of Arab Americans has been shared exclusively with Zeteo. asserted
poll → share → Zeteo
The findings are fascinating, from whom Arab Americans support in 2028 (on both sides of the aisle), to how many identify as socialists or MAGA Republicans, to how consequential Israel and Gaza will be to their votes. asserted
Israel → support → votes
Commissioned by the Arab American Institute and conducted by John Zogby Strategies, the poll surveyed Arab Americans nationwide ahead of the 2026 midterms and as the 2028 presidential election looms. asserted
election → commission → midterms
Some such media treatment came in response to the Washington establishment’s disdain for those who stand against the bipartisan machine fueling Israel’s genocide in Gaza – with Arab Americans percevied as the primary source of inconvenient dissent (a proposition proved wrong time and again). asserted
proposition → come → dissent
While corporate media has dismissed Arab Americans and many other groups when it comes to Israel and Palestine, the importance of the issue has not gone away. asserted
importance → dismiss → issue
A whopping 90% of respondents to the new poll said the crisis in Gaza would be very or somewhat important in determining their vote in 2028. asserted
crisis → say → 2028
A plurality, 41%, said they would not support a candidate who refused to end unconditional support for Israel, including 56% of respondents aged 18-29 and 46% of women. asserted
who → say → women
As far as the 2028 primaries go, two candidates in each party stood above the rest. asserted
candidates → go → rest
On the Democratic side, voters were split between Kamala Harris (30%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (29%), with Gavin Newsom on 18% and Ro Khanna, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg trailing in single digits. asserted
Khanna → split → digits
On the Republican side of the aisle, Donald Trump Jr. led the field at 30%, with Vice President JD Vance at 25%. asserted
Jr. → lead → %
Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz trailed at 8% each, and Ron DeSantis rounded out the field at 6%. asserted
DeSantis → trail → %
“In 2026, the unpopularity of the Trump administration and the Democratic Party’s movement away from unquestioned support for Israel have undone much of the damage the Biden administration caused to Arab American support in the 2024 election,” the Arab American Institute writes. asserted
Institute → undo → election
Still, the poll finds Arab Americans who identify as independents at a historic 31% – following national trends rejecting the two-party system. asserted
who → find → system
Nevertheless, respondents who identified as Democrats bounced back after a sharp decline during the past two administrations. asserted
who → identify → administrations
While a staying portion of Arab Americans identify as Republicans, when it comes to political ideology, the findings are a bit more nuanced. asserted
findings → stay → ideology
More respondents, for example, identified as democratic socialists than as MAGA Republicans and conservatives combined. asserted
respondents → identify → Republicans
“There’s a convergence of views on critical issues, and Trump’s on the wrong side of every one of them,” James Zogby, managing director of Zogby Research Services, tells Zeteo. asserted
Zogby → ’ → Zeteo
“This is a Democratic year for the community, and it’s a return to where they were in 2020. asserted
they → ’ → 2020
It depends, as they say, on the candidates’ views. asserted
they → depend → views
Of those who identified as Democrats, a plurality (39%) identified as democratic socialists – more than any other ideological group. asserted
plurality → identify → group
When it comes to voting, 59% of respondents said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to just 26% who said they’d be voting for the Republican. asserted
they → come → Republican
Unfortunately, 65% of Arab Americans reported experiencing discrimination due to their ethnicity or country of origin – the fourth conservative survey in which that figure has increased. asserted
figure → report → which
Nearly three out of four respondents aged 18-29 report facing discrimination. asserted
respondents → age → discrimination
In some ways, they’re the canary in the coal mine,” Zogby says. asserted
Zogby → ’re → mine
“When Israel was running roughshod over Palestinians, and people were beginning to get upset about not just about Gaza, but about the role that [pro-Israel lobby group] AIPAC plays [in U.S. politics], Arab Americans were given a warning…and people didn’t pay attention. asserted
people → run → attention
And now what they’re saying is this appeal to bigotry, the ruinous nature of the policies on the economy, and dividing people – they’re saying ‘Enough’s enough, and we’re rejecting it,’ and so in many ways, this is a community that is pretty much where the country is.” Check out more from Zeteo: asserted
country → say → Zeteo
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