But he could be facing a very different political landscape, depending on the results of the US midterm elections held the previous day.
uncertain
he → face → elections
As the name implies, midterm elections fall nearly halfway through a president’s term.
asserted
elections → imply → term
They are often a telling referendum on the sitting president’s performance, something Trump is actively encouraging by telling voters “pretend I’m on the ballot”.
asserted
I → tell → ballot
In this case, voters will decide whether Trump’s Republican party can retain its grip on Congress.
asserted
party → decide → Congress
Democrats are hoping to capitalise on growing discontent with Trump to seize control of the US House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate.
uncertain
Democrats → hop → Representatives
Republicans are fighting to preserve their congressional majorities and prevent a fresh period of legislative paralysis and investigations into the White House.
asserted
Republicans → fight → House
What is being decided?
asserted
What → decide → ?
The US Congress in Washington has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
asserted
Congress → have → Representatives
Both must approve federal legislation before it can become law and both play important roles in overseeing the executive branch.
asserted
both → approve → branch
The House is elected every two years, meaning all 435 voting seats are contested at every congressional election.
asserted
seats → elect → election
The Senate has 100 members serving staggered six-year terms, so roughly a third of its seats are up for election every two years.
asserted
third → have → election
This year’s ballot includes:
-
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
asserted
ballot → include → Representatives
Republicans are defending a narrow majority, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to take control.
-
35 seats in the Senate.
asserted
Democrats → defend → Senate
Thirty-three seats are up in regular elections, along with two special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill the remainder of terms that were vacated early.
asserted
that → fill → terms
Republicans currently hold 53 seats, against 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them.
asserted
who → hold → them
Democrats need to gain four seats to secure a majority.
asserted
Democrats → need → majority
Voters will choose governors in 36 states and three US territories.
asserted
Voters → choose → states
The elections for Congress will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of Trump’s second term.
asserted
party → determine → term
The governorships and state legislative contests will shape policymaking closer to home, from education and reproductive rights to taxation and the administration of elections.
asserted
governorships → shape → elections
Why do the midterms matter?
asserted
midterms → matter → ?
They have a long history of punishing the occupant of the White House.
asserted
They → have → House
The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections, a 90% rate of loss that stretches back to 1946.
asserted
that → lose → 1946
George W Bush’s Republicans gained seats in the 2002 midterms, following the September 11 attacks.
asserted
Republicans → gain → attacks
But Barack Obama’s Democrats suffered a “shellacking” in 2010 and Trump’s Republicans lost the House in 2018.
asserted
Republicans → suffer → 2018
Republicans enter this election with a narrow margin for error in the House and a more substantial advantage in the Senate.
asserted
Republicans → enter → Senate
The RealClearPolitics average of national generic polls showed Democrats leading Republicans by 8.2 points in early October.
asserted
Democrats → show → October
Trump has been forced to hold campaign rallies in what should be safe Republican states.
asserted
what → force → rallies
But political polarisation and years of redistricting have reduced the number of genuinely competitive House districts, making it harder for either party to translate a national swing into a big change in seats.
asserted
party → reduce → seats
The Reuters news agency has estimated that only about 40 to 50 House races are truly competitive.
asserted
races → estimate → ?
What are the races to watch?
asserted
races → watch → ?
Several Senate contests have emerged as key battlegrounds.
asserted
contests → emerge → battlegrounds
In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed is seeking to hold an open seat for Democrats after Gary Peters, the incumbent senator, decided not to seek re-election.
asserted
Peters → seek → election
In Georgia, Jon Ossoff, a Democratic senator, enjoys a healthy poll lead over Republican challenger Mike Collins.
asserted
Ossoff → enjoy → Collins
In Maine, a state won by Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, Susan Collins, the Republican senator, is defending her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson.
asserted
Collins → win → Jackson
Ohio offers another major test, with Democrat Sherrod Brown seeking to return to the Senate against Republican Jon Husted.
asserted
Brown → offer → Husted
Texas has become especially closely watched.
asserted
Texas → become → ?
Democrat James Talarico is taking on Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general.
asserted
Talarico → take → Paxton
Republicans have spent about $210m to help the scandal-plagued Paxton.
asserted
Republicans → spend → Paxton
No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.
asserted
Democrat → win → 1994
Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024.
asserted
Trump → win → 2024
…and 39 more, not listed.
The Aporia
