5 reasons why Lorne Doerkson is the next premier of British Columbia
Eby's snap election gamble backfired, while the B.C. Conservative leader projected normalcy
Even by the standards of British Columbia politics, this was an election for the history books.
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this → backfire → books
Five weeks ago, Lorne Doerkson was a little-known MLA from the Interior, vacationing in Africa while his Conservative Party was self-immolating.
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Party → know → Africa
Today, he's set to become the 38th premier of British Columbia, leading the second-largest caucus the province has ever seen, while the NDP sits with its worst election night in 25 years.
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NDP → set → years
Plenty of analysis will follow in the days and weeks — and frankly years — to come about the 2026 B.C. provincial election.
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Plenty → follow → election
But here are five reasons why the election ended the way it did, based on conversations with campaign leaders with both major parties and nine years covering the outgoing NDP government.
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it → end → government
David Eby announced a snap election during a press conference at the Government House in Victoria, B.C., on Sept. 22, 2026.
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Eby → announce → Sept.
Eby's snap election call
You can't tell the story of this election without talking about the reason it happened.
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it → tell → reason
Eby's decision to head to the polls two years after the last election, despite having a majority in the legislature, angered people from the moment the idea became public — by his own admission.
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idea → head → admission
"People were very surprised and frustrated by the election call.
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People → surprise → call
I should have done a better job of letting them know how stalled out the legislature was," he said.
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he → do → job
It's true that the B.C. NDP felt frustrated by the difficulties of passing legislation in Victoria with their narrow seat margin.
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NDP → feel → margin
But the results showed that voters were much more frustrated with Eby and the snap election, and had very little sympathy for MLAs having to work long nights in the legislature when the NDP was still able to pass the legislation it wanted.
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it → show → legislation
Eby tried pivoting his campaign message from U.S. President Donald Trump to taxing the rich to the risks of Doerkson, but no pivot lasted particularly long.
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pivot → try → Doerkson
Put simply, from coast to coast to coast, there will be a new warning story told when governments consider a snap election call.
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governments → Put → call
While many people will say many things about the decision, it brings to mind the adage often attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
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he → say → mistake
B.C. Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson pets a dog during a provincial election campaign stop in Vancouver on Oct. 23, 2026.
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Doerkson → pet → Oct.
Doerkson projected normalcy
While the election will forever be known for Eby's snap election call, the story of Doerkson becoming "the accidental premier," as many quipped on election night, is equally historic.
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many → project → night
CBC Soapbox Social commentator Mo Amir frequently called Doerkson "Normie Lorne," and Conservative organizers continually tried to put their new leader in places where he would talk about the economy, play up his small-business background in Williams Lake, and avoid controversial takes.
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he → call → takes
NDP supporters criticized Doerkson for his continued support for Conservative MLAs who had made controversial statements about American politics or 2SLGBTQ+ issues in the past, along with the lack of questions he took from the media compared to Eby.
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he → criticize → Eby
Doerkson returned from a trip to Africa and assumed the interim leadership of the Conservatives on Sept. 20.
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Doerkson → return → Sept.
Given the lack of policy focus in this campaign, there are big questions about what specific policies a Conservative government will prioritize in the years ahead.
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government → give → years
However, voters seemed very comfortable giving them that time and mandate.
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voters → seem → time
The Conservative Party got close to 50 per cent of the vote on election night, on pace for the highest percentage for any party since the dominant 2001 B.C. Liberal performance that left the NDP with two seats.
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that → get → seats
Whatever arbitrary bar moderate voters might have set if they were considering voting Conservative, it seems Doerkson cleared it.
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Doerkson → set → it
Conservatives projected stability
It certainly helped that the Conservatives managed to present a mostly united front behind him.
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Conservatives → project → him
"There's nothing like a gun to your head," said Andrew Reeve, a former B.C. Liberal communications director, on election night, describing the last-second scramble that saw almost all of the MLAs who had departed the party's caucus in the preceding two years rejoin its ranks as Eby made his election call.
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Eby → be → call
A number of former B.C. Liberal organizers who were sidelined under John Rustad and particularly Kerry-Lynne Findlay took command of party operations, excised Findlay and her husband Brent Chapman, and bet that online influencers who vocally supported Findlay and denounced any perceived moderation would not matter to the general public.
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who → sideline → public
That proved correct.
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That → prove → ?
While Eby argued on the campaign trail that you couldn't trust the Conservatives to stay united, the attack seemed to fall flat.
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attack → argue → Conservatives
One interesting trend that became clear later in the evening was how much turnout dropped — at least for the NDP.
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turnout → become → NDP
In 2024, the B.C. Conservative Party received just over 900,000 votes.
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Party → receive → votes
When all the votes are counted, the Conservatives will end up getting quite close to that this time.
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Conservatives → count → that
The New Democrats received just under 950,000 votes in 2024.
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Democrats → receive → 2024
This election, they will end up with fewer than 700,000, a drop of more than 25 per cent.
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they → end → cent
And the Green Party seems set to only get 20,000 or so more votes than 2024.
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Party → set → 2024
The B.C. NDP will end up with fewer than 700,000 votes in this election, a drop of more than 25 per cent compared to 2024.
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NDP → end → 2024
Some 2024 NDP voters may have switched to the Conservatives this election.
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voters → switch → Conservatives
Or they might have stayed home, demotivated after backtracks on policies like the carbon tax, an attempted backtrack on the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA), and after seeing promises from the 2024 election that weren't enacted.
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that → stay → election
, it'll be part of the post-election autopsy for the NDP in the weeks to come, and everyone who seeks to replace Eby as leader will have to give their own interpretation to the public.
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who → come → public
When you strip away the snap election, the framing of Doerkson and any demotivated potential NDP voters, a lot of the fundamentals of the election favoured the Conservatives.
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lot → strip → Conservatives
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
