The Aporia
On September 11, 2023, Yemen's Houthi rebels captured the strategic island of Perim in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This move tightens their control over one of the world’s key shipping routes and threatens Saudi Arabia's oil exports through the Red Sea. The capture was confirmed by officials from both the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the Houthis.
The seizure comes after Houthi forces also took control of the mainland coastal town of Dhubab, further consolidating their grip on this vital waterway. Reports indicate that gunmen are deploying along the Bab el-Mandeb shore, adding to concerns about maritime security in the region.
The capture of Perim island, which divides the narrowest part of the strait into two shipping lanes, has significant implications for global trade and energy markets. If the Houthis gain full control over the entire Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it could give their backer Iran a critical advantage against the US in the ongoing conflict. This would also reduce supplies through a second major transit corridor and potentially cause oil prices to surge.
Saudi Arabia has been relying heavily on the Red Sea route since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to conflicts with Iran. The latest developments threaten this alternative shipping lane, posing serious challenges for global energy security. Satellite imagery showed smoke above Saudi Arabia's East-West Oil Pipeline near the strait, raising concerns about potential sabotage or damage.
International and regional powers are closely monitoring these events as they could escalate tensions in an already volatile region. Yemen’s President Rashad al-Alimi emphasized that protecting Yemen’s coasts is a joint interest for Yemen, Egypt, Arab states, and international partners. The situation underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other stakeholders in the Middle East.
The Houthis’ biggest territorial gains in years, along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, could boost Iran’s strategy of driving up world oil and gas prices to pressure the United States.