There isn’t much that we Indians agree on these days.
asserted
we → be → that
Last week, India released glowing GDP numbers for the latest quarter – 7.8% growth – higher than the forecast 7%.
asserted
India → release → %
It sparked a furore.
asserted
It → spark → furore
Subhash Garg, a former finance secretary under Narendra Modi’s government and now a critic, reframed what Modi called a “herculean feat” as mere smoke and mirrors.
asserted
Modi → reframe → smoke
According to Garg, the government revised last year’s current-price GDP downwards to inflate this year’s number – he believes the real growth is only 2.6%.
uncertain
growth → accord → number
The assertion, made on a television channel, immediately went viral.
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assertion → make → channel
A flurry of op-eds and hot takes have been published since.
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flurry → publish → eds
Supporters of the government, predictably, rejected the claims.
uncertain
Supporters → reject → claims
Those who have questions agree on a more fundamental problem: a lack of transparency and statistical credibility in India’s economic data.
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who → have → data
Over the past decade, critics say, the government has systematically hollowed out the integrity of its own data infrastructure, weaponising economic data for political gain and creating a trust deficit.
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government → say → deficit
Methodologies have been changed, crucial surveys have faced long delays and there have been attempts to suppress inconvenient findings.
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surveys → change → findings
In November, the International Monetary Fund rated India’s national accounts data a ‘C’ on a four-point scale, the second-lowest grade.
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Fund → rat → scale
In its report, the IMF said some of the methodologies are outdated, including relying on an old base year, unexplained discrepancies between GDP calculated from the production and expenditure side, as well as a lack of seasonal data.
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some → say → data
India’s statistical system once commanded respect, and its data on economic and social indicators was considered rigorous.
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data → command → indicators
There might have been disagreements on the quality of estimates but their independence was widely accepted.
uncertain
independence → accept → estimates
That trust appears to have eroded in recent years.
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trust → appear → years
“There seems to be a systematic effort by the government to hide the truth,” said R Nagaraj, an economist who taught at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, adding that some of the other contested datasets include employment numbers, poverty numbers, health data and consumption data.
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some → seem → numbers
“Over the last 10 years, the government has changed the methodology for many of these, raising questions.
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government → change → questions
They have apparently also removed critical officials who headed some surveys.
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who → remove → surveys
All of this adds to the scepticism.”
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All → add → scepticism
In one of the most prominent examples, from 2019, a Business Standard journalist revealed that the government had not published an official report showing unemployment at a 45-year high of 6.1%.
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government → reveal → %
Two expert members of the National Statistical Commission resigned in protest.
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members → resign → protest
The government initially denied it, calling it a draft.
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government → deny → it
The figures were only released months later.
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figures → release → ?
Then there is the census, which for the first time since independence, was delayed in 2021.
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which → be → 2021
Economists say relying on outdated demographic data means, among other things, inequitable allocation of welfare entitlements.
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relying → say → entitlements
(The first phase of the latest census finally began in April 2026.)
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phase → begin → April
Nagaraj has witnessed some of this first-hand.
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Nagaraj → witness → this
He served on a subcommittee in 2014 whose report forms a part of the GDP.
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report → serve → GDP
“The [numbers] we had discussed in the committee and what came out in the final report were different.
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what → discuss → report
So, I had to raise a red flag,” he said.
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he → have → flag
The difference was notable: one figure in the published report had been inflated by 108%.
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figure → publish → %
But government economists reject the ongoing criticism of the GDP numbers.
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economists → reject → numbers
Shamika Ravi, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the prime minister, described it as a “noisy and very ill-informed debate” arguing that political leanings, not data, are behind the criticism.
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leanings → describe → criticism
The IMF rating was expected, she said.
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she → expect → ?
“The IMF rating of ‘C’ is the same rating that China has for its statistics.
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China → have → statistics
Several large developing or just developed economies have data issues.”
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economies → develop → issues
Revisions to its calculations that the government was accused of having manipulated, she added, were precisely the sorts of changes the IMF had recommended.
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IMF → accuse → changes
The sticking point, as some including India’s former chief statistician Pronab Sen have pointed out, is the trustworthiness of the underlying data used.
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some → include → data
Complicating this debate is the reality for many Indians.
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reality → complicate → Indians
…and 37 more, not listed.
The Aporia
