In any other year, Mohammed bin Salman would be getting ready for his star turn.
asserted
Salman → get → turn
October 26 was supposed to be the scheduled start of the Future Investment Initiative (FII), an annual summit in the Saudi capital that is sometimes dubbed “Davos in the desert”.
asserted
that → suppose → desert
The crown prince usually spends the week glad-handing heads of state, titans of finance and other dignitaries, all eager to do business with his kingdom.
asserted
all → spend → kingdom
The Houthis, an Iran-backed militia in Yemen, have spent weeks firing missiles and drones at Riyadh.
asserted
Houthis → back → Riyadh
The airport is still, in effect, shut after a series of deadly attacks.
asserted
airport → shut → attacks
Many Western governments have warned their citizens not to travel to the kingdom.
asserted
governments → warn → kingdom
After days of deliberation, organisers decided on October 19 to postpone the event until next year.
asserted
organisers → decide → year
As he rose to power a decade ago, Prince Mohammed made a few big gambles.
asserted
Mohammed → rise → gambles
He wagered that he could defeat the Houthis; that he could reshape the Saudi economy; and Donald Trump would prove a reliable ally.
uncertain
Trump → wager → economy
All of them have gone awry.
asserted
All → go → them
Cancelling FII is emblematic of Prince Mohammed’s annus horribilis.
asserted
Cancelling → cancel → Mohammed
He faces a set of interlocking crises, none of which has a solution.
asserted
none → face → solution
The Saudis failed to defeat the Houthis, but they had hoped a ceasefire agreed in 2022 would contain the threat.
asserted
ceasefire → fail → threat
Instead, the truce began to unravel because of America’s broader war with Iran.
asserted
truce → begin → Iran
The Houthis have seized additional territory in Yemen and battered Saudi Arabia.
asserted
Houthis → seize → Arabia
People close to the crown prince see only bad options.
asserted
People → see → options
The kingdom can send ground troops into a bloody war; continue a campaign of air strikes that is unlikely to succeed; or make a deal that helps cement Houthi rule.
A long conflict will derail Prince Mohammed’s economic program, which was sputtering even before 2026.
asserted
which → send → 2026
Big projects were being shelved amid a strain on public finances.
asserted
projects → shelve → finances
Wages have not kept pace with inflation.
asserted
Wages → keep → inflation
A year ago, the IMF expected the Saudi economy to grow by 4 per cent in 2026; now it expects a 3.3 per cent contraction.
asserted
it → expect → contraction
Whether it rebounds in 2027 will depend on whether peace breaks out in the Middle East—and that, in turn, will depend largely on Trump.
asserted
that → rebound → Trump
The kingdom thought it had influence over him.
asserted
it → think → him
It wooed him by promising to invest implausible sums in America.
asserted
It → woo → America
It also made tawdry deals with the first family, paying Trump-owned golf courses to host Saudi-funded tournaments and investing $US2 billion with Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law.
asserted
It → make → law
None of that stopped him from embarking on a disastrous war.
asserted
None → stop → war
“He’s not loyal to anyone for long,” says one well-connected Saudi.
asserted
Saudi → ’ → anyone
Though there are no reliable public-opinion polls in the kingdom, it is fair to say most Saudis trust their government.
asserted
Saudis → be → government
Some have found the past few weeks unnerving, nonetheless: the war in Yemen has caused disruption.
asserted
war → find → disruption
Yet since October 10, when a Houthi missile killed 13 people at Riyadh’s airport, Prince Mohammed has been largely invisible.
asserted
Mohammed → kill → airport
It fell to ministers to visit victims and offer reassuring messages.
asserted
It → fall → messages
A few Western commentators have begun to ask whether this crisis-filled year poses an existential threat to the crown prince’s rule.
asserted
year → begin → rule
“He was in a much tougher place seven or eight years ago,” says one Western envoy.
asserted
envoy → say → place
Back then the prince was a newly appointed heir, still trying to consolidate his rule.
asserted
prince → appoint → rule
The war in Yemen was already a quagmire, the blockade of Qatar was upsetting America, and much of the world was horrified when Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist, was murdered inside the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.
asserted
Khashoggi → upset → Istanbul
Prince Mohammed’s grip on power is far more secure today: he has sidelined rivals and centralised power unlike any Saudi ruler since King Abdulaziz, the founder of the modern state.
asserted
he → sideline → state
Though he has detractors, none could plausibly organise a putsch.
uncertain
none → have → putsch
Nor is he facing much criticism from allies.
asserted
he → face → allies
The response to the recent escalation in Yemen has been telling: long-time critics of the war acknowledge the kingdom has little choice but to fight.
asserted
kingdom → acknowledge → choice
“I do understand that this is a different moment than 2018 or 2020.
asserted
this → understand → 2018
They are facing these Houthi advances and Houthi rocket attacks,” says Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator who met the crown prince in Riyadh this month.
asserted
who → face → Riyadh
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
