Ahead of next month’s midterm US elections, Donald Trump has increasingly blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for surging energy prices back home, which are causing the president political headaches.
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which → blame → headaches
However, analysts say the main driver of higher fuel prices remains the US–Iran war.
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driver → say → prices
Which Russian sites have been targeted?
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sites → target → ?
Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on Russia’s energy industry over the past 18 months, seeking to cut the Kremlin’s revenues and undermine its ability to finance the war.
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Ukraine → intensify → war
The strikes have targeted “mostly refineries”, Julien Mathonniere, an economist at Energy Intelligence, told AFP.
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Mathonniere → target → AFP
On average, one Russian refinery was hit every three days during the first eight months of the year, according to the International Energy Agency.
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refinery → hit → Agency
“Russia’s net diesel exports fell by approximately 80 per cent year on year in the third quarter of 2026, from around 1.05 million barrels per day to just 200,000 barrels per day,” said Viktor Kurilov, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
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Kurilov → fall → Energy
In response to the disruption in domestic fuel supplies, Moscow introduced a ban on diesel exports from July until the end of October.
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Moscow → introduce → October
Why does this concern Trump?
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this → concern → Trump
Trump has repeatedly condemned the attacks on Russian refineries, saying Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky disobeyed his orders to halt the strikes.
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Zelensky → condemn → strikes
By contrast, Trump has not commented on the intensification in recent months of Russian strikes against Ukrainian territory, which have caused a surge in civilian casualties.
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which → comment → casualties
Trump’s frustrations come as the Republicans face dim prospects in the November midterm elections, partly because of soaring fuel prices.
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Republicans → come → prices
US diesel prices at the pump climbed to a record of $6.53 per gallon at the end of September, up from $3.75 per gallon before the war, according to the American Automobile Association.
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prices → climb → Association
Energy price rises are also fuelling inflation across the economy.
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rises → fuel → economy
Ukraine’s strikes explain “about one-third of the global diesel shortfall, currently estimated at 1.7 to 1.8m barrels per day”, said Mathonniere.
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Mathonniere → explain → day
But “the impact of previous drone strikes (by Kyiv) on global product prices before the Middle East crisis was minimal”, James Henderson, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told AFP.
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Henderson → tell → AFP
Energy exports from the Gulf have plunged since US-Israeli strikes on Iran from February caused Tehran to respond by choking off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas transit.
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Tehran → plunge → transit
At the same time, maritime freight costs have soared and major refining capacity in the Middle East has been hit, adding to upward pressure on oil prices.
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capacity → soar → prices
Can prices fall before midterms?
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prices → fall → midterms
Relations between Kyiv and Washington soured further this month after Trump announced a controversial agreement with Moscow to lift certain sanctions and allow Russian diesel imports, supposedly to ease prices.
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Trump → sour → prices
The US president said Wednesday that he believed an end to the Russia-Ukraine war could be closer than ever, as the Kremlin said it was willing to restart trilateral talks with Kyiv and Washington next month.
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it → say → Kyiv
For now, however, the strikes continue.
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strikes → continue → ?
“There’s not much that can be done in the very short term to lower diesel prices,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
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Leon → ’ → Energy
Even if the Russia conflict ended or an energy ceasefire was reached, the impact “wouldn’t really move the needle massively for the US midterm elections”, he added.
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he → end → elections
Repairs to damaged infrastructure take time, while continued hostilities in the Middle East drive energy prices higher.
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hostilities → damage → prices
The Aporia
