"It uses the incumbent’s margin in her last competitive race, adjusting for the political environment at the time of the last election and changes in district boundaries;
It looks at whether the incumbent is in their first elected term, and whether they defeated an incumbent in their previous race;23
And for states that have redistricted, the incumbency advantage is less when there’s little overlap between a member’s old and new districts.
Fundraising, based on individual contributions only (so not party or PAC money) with a bonus for contributions from within a candidate’s home state;24
Elected experience on a 4-point scale from 0 (never elected to anything) to 3 (current or former elected senator or governor);
Party loyalty scores based on congressional voting records."
Framing: assertive ·
First seen: 2026-09-05 ·
Last seen: 2026-09-05 ·
Spread: 1 articles