Caleb Williams is back and the market is awfully eager to crown the Bears after topping the fickle Falcons by one possession.
asserted
market → crown → possession
In the three games the dynamic gunslinger was absent due to a hamstring injury, the Bears found themselves primarily relying on their defense.
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themselves → find → defense
That’s not to discredit Case Keenum’s resurrection on “Monday Night Football” against the Eagles in Week 3, but red-zone struggles were a theme across that span: Chicago scored just four times across 15 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
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Chicago → ’ → line
Mind you, this is a defense that allows an NFL-worst 6 yards per play.
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that → mind → play
Williams certainly gave the market good reason to trust him in his rust-free return against Atlanta.
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Williams → give → Atlanta
He orchestrated touchdown drives in the Bears’ first two drives and finished the day with 305 yards, an 83 percent completion rate, and zero turnovers.
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He → orchestrate → yards
Patriots vs. Bears prediction, best bet
A fellow 4-2 Patriots team that is really in its stride right now represents a different challenge for Williams and the Bears on Thursday.
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that → represent → Thursday
I’ll be the first to admit I hit the eject button on New England after the Jaguars decimated them by 29 points.
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Jaguars → admit → points
Their cakewalk of a schedule that mapped them to the Super Bowl last year felt like it was beginning to get exposed.
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it → map → Bowl
But since then, Drake Maye’s turnover issues have completely vanished.
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issues → vanish → ?
After throwing six interceptions through three weeks, the MVP runner-up has tossed an NFL-best 10 touchdowns against just one interception over his last three games.
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up → throw → games
Maye is also leading the league in passer rating (119.3) and EPA per dropback (0.38) during that stretch.
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Maye → lead → stretch
These numbers aren’t inflated by one favorable matchup, either.
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numbers → inflate → matchup
Maye helped engineer these victories with a 47-point explosion over a respectable Raiders team and is the only challenger to best Josh Allen thus far.
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Maye → help → Allen
It’s worth mentioning that New England’s offensive line is battered on the short week.
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line → ’ → week
It lost Morgan Moses and Alijah Vera-Tucker to injuries against the Jets, while Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are already on injured reserve.
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Onwenu → lose → reserve
The Bears pressure within the top five defenses, so Maye will need to get the football out of his hands when he can.
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he → pressure → hands
Even so, the Patriots allowed zero sacks and just four quarterback hits against the Jets despite losing three offensive linemen in the game.
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Patriots → allow → game
Establishing the run game will be key.
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Establishing → establish → game
New England churned out 148 rushing yards against the Jets, and it’s helpful that Chicago ranks among the bottom five in yards allowed before contact on running plays.
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Chicago → churn → plays
I also expect a bounce-back effort from A.J. Brown.
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I → expect → Brown
The star wideout managed only three catches on 10 targets in his first full game with the Patriots.
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wideout → manage → Patriots
His role won’t be going anywhere.
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role → go → ?
Perhaps the biggest differentiator between these two is New England’s defense, which ranks among the league’s top 10 in both points and yards allowed.
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which → rank → points
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The Patriots do rely heavily on man coverage — a scheme that Williams ranks within the top three in both completion percentage and passer rating against.
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Williams → read → percentage
Whether defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr mixes in more zone coverage remains to be seen, though I expect cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who ranks 11th overall in passer rating allowed per Pro Football Focus, to limit one side of the field either way.
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who → mix → field
This is one of the bigger toss-up Thursday night games of the season, so side with the more capable defense and a Patriots team that’s 5-1-1 against the spread as road underdogs under Mike Vrabel.
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that → toss → Vrabel
THE PLAY: Patriots +2.5 (+125, 45 percent, Polymarket)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post.
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Treppedi → trust → Post
He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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that → focus → risk
The Aporia
