As Trump’s support slips, white evangelicals remain his Republican bedrock
BLYTHEWOOD, South Carolina –
asserted
evangelicals → slip → ?
US President Donald Trump is losing ground among many of the voters who returned him to the White House in 2024.
asserted
who → lose → 2024
But Reuters/Ipsos polling and interviews with white evangelical Christians show they remain his most reliable constituency and could prove crucial in the Nov 3 midterm elections.
uncertain
they → show → elections
With Republicans on the defensive amid record-low approval ratings for Trump, strong evangelical turnout could help the party limit losses driven by voter frustration over the cost of living and the war in Iran.
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party → help → Iran
That loyalty was on display last week at Village Church, an evangelical congregation in Blythewood, South Carolina, where hundreds of worshippers gathered for a weekly “Bible and Politics” sermon by Pastor Erik Estep.
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hundreds → gather → Estep
Speaking in the main worship hall, framed by a giant video screen and concert-style lighting, Estep did not endorse a candidate or party.
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Estep → speak → candidate
But as he spoke against gambling, following sermons on abortion and socialism, he urged his predominantly white parishioners to view politics through a biblical lens.
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he → speak → lens
“I believe the church is the bulwark of truth for our nation,” Estep said from the stage.
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Estep → believe → stage
“And it will take people like you and churches like this church to protect this nation spiritually and morally.”
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it → take → nation
The message resonated with Karen Whiting, a 72-year-old retired pharmaceutical executive who plans to vote for Republican Darline Graham over Annie Andrews, the Democrat.
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who → resonate → Andrews
Graham was appointed by the governor to fill the seat of her late brother, Senator Lindsey Graham.
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Graham → appoint → brother
Whiting cited concerns that Democrats would allow transgender girls and women to compete in female sports, echoing other white evangelicals Reuters interviewed in South Carolina last week who prioritised social and religious issues over economic concerns.
“I’m voting for biblical principles, and I do not believe the Democratic Party stands for biblical principles,” Whiting said.
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Whiting → cite → principles
“Without God, this country’s going to fail.
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country → go → God
If visitors to Village Church needed more explicit guidance on how to vote, a candidate guide available in the church lobby left little doubt.
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guide → need → doubt
Produced by the conservative Christian advocacy group Palmetto Family Council and distributed to churches across South Carolina, it awarded Graham green check marks on all seven issues it rated, including restrictions on abortion medication and gender-affirming care, while Andrews received mostly red X’s.
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Andrews → produce → ’s
Andrews offered a different reading of evangelical voters’ priorities.
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Andrews → offer → priorities
In a statement to Reuters, she said she had visited evangelical churches and met voters of various faiths, political persuasions and backgrounds, finding that they were chiefly concerned about the economy.
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they → say → economy
“They’re struggling with the cost of everything.
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They → struggle → everything
That’s why I’m running,” she said.
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she → ’ → ?
Strong bonds
Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump’s support among white evangelicals fell to 63% in October from 77% in January 2025.
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support → show → January
The decline is slightly smaller than his drop among the electorate as a whole, from 47% to 31%, and white evangelicals remain the only major demographic group tracked by Reuters/Ipsos where his support tops 60%.
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support → remain → %
The thrice-married Trump’s bond with white evangelicals has survived a decade of scandals and investigations, including dozens of allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denies, and a hush-money case involving a porn star.
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he → marry → star
The question for Republicans is whether economic pressures and unhappiness over the Iran war, now in its eighth month, are weakening that bond.
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pressures → weaken → bond
Reuters interviews with 15 people at two South Carolina churches suggested that his hold on white evangelical voters remained strong.
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hold → suggest → voters
At Village Church and Carolina Baptist Church in the city of Spartanburg, about a 90-minute drive from Blythewood, only two of the 15 said they were considering Andrews, and none indicated they were abandoning Trump.
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they → say → Trump
While several voiced frustration with the Iran conflict and rising gas prices, most said they trusted Trump to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon or, like Trump, blamed inflation on policies enacted under Democratic President Joe Biden.
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they → voice → Biden
Chad Connelly, an evangelical activist who heads the Christian voter-engagement group Faith Wins, said that while evangelicals “don’t like paying higher prices”, they are equally animated by social issues.
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they → head → issues
Concerns about transgender athletes are “really playing everywhere” across the nearly two dozen states he has visited this election cycle, he said.
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he → play → states
White evangelicals’ loyalty to Trump reflects what Robert P. Jones, president of the Public Religion Research Institute, a non-profit organisation that studies religion and politics, calls a “grand bargain” forged during the 2016 election.
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that → reflect → election
Many evangelicals have overlooked his personal conduct in exchange for his commitment to curtail abortion and LGBTQ rights, advance a conservative Christian vision of American life and pursue strict immigration policies that some supporters see as preserving the country’s white Christian identity, Jones said.
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Jones → overlook → identity
“That has proven to be more powerful for this group than what they’re having to pay at the gas pump,” Jones, who has written extensively about the rise of Christian nationalism in American politics, told Reuters.
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who → prove → Reuters
Why evangelicals matter
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evangelicals → matter → ?
White evangelicals make up about 13% of US adults but nearly a third of Trump’s winning coalition in 2024, according to a PRRI survey and a validated-voter analysis by the non-partisan Pew Research Center.
uncertain
evangelicals → make → Center
More than 80% voted for Trump in each of his three presidential campaigns, according to Pew.
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% → vote → Pew
They differ sharply from black Protestant evangelicals, who overwhelmingly support Democrats.
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who → differ → Democrats
Evangelicals’ loyalty could also prove pivotal in Senate races beyond South Carolina that may help determine control of Congress, including in Iowa and Kansas, where white evangelicals make up a significant share of the electorate.
uncertain
evangelicals → prove → electorate
Opinion polls suggest the race in South Carolina is close.
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race → suggest → Carolina
This week Trafalgar Group, a Republican-leaning pollster, released a survey showing Andrews trailing Graham by 3 percentage points.
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Andrews → lean → points
Part of Graham’s challenge stems from lingering unease among some conservatives over her appointment to the Senate seat.
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Part → stem → seat
Even after a boost from Trump, the political newcomer only narrowly defeated US Representative Ralph Norman in the party’s August run-off, underscoring questions among some Republicans about her experience and conservative credentials.
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newcomer → defeat → experience
…and 5 more, not listed.
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