Farm country has beef with Trump as midterms approach
Driving around his farm in a four-wheeler, Scott Birker warned that his cattle were in a bad mood.
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cattle → have → mood
"They're a little grumpy with me right now," he said.
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he → say → me
When asked why, he said matter-of-factly: "We just got done weaning."
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We → ask → ?
Birker should know his herd well, given that he's been raising beef cattle outside the Eastern Iowa town of Garrison since 2001.
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he → know → 2001
His operation has about 150 "mama cows" and sells feeder calves, as well as some cattle for meat.
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operation → have → meat
All of which is to say that since August, when Trump announced that his administration would raise the quota on beef imported under lower tariffs – temporarily suspending tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported beef – Birker knows it when he says: that hurt people.
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that → say → people
"That surprise, with a very volatile market already, with a tight supply, hurts us really, really fast and really, really hard," Birker said.
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Birker → hurt → us
It's not that raising beef cattle was easy before that new import policy.
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raising → raise → policy
Margins are always tight, says Zach Raff, incoming livestock economist at Iowa State University.
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Raff → say → University
But there have also been other challenges – for example, drought in much of the western U.S. made hay much more expensive and shrank the nation's beef herd.
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hay → make → herd
"The beef herd size is at an all time low – a 75-year-low," said Raff.
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Raff → say → low
"So you couple that with very strong demand.
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you → couple → demand
And that's going to make prices what you see at the store right now."
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you → go → store
Ground beef currently costs around $6.80 a pound – a fact of which the Trump administration is keenly aware.
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administration → cost → which
But the administration's attempts to bring those prices down have backfired politically and possibly economically..
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attempts → bring → prices
Multiple Trump administration policies have made life tougher for beef producers.
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life → make → producers
Last year, amid the trade war between the two countries, China cut its US beef purchases.
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China → cut → purchases
In February, Trump signed an executive order to subject some Argentinian beef to fewer tariffs.
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Trump → sign → tariffs
And in August, he signed the executive order to suspend tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of beef imports – specifically, lean beef trimmings, with the goal of lowering the price of ground beef.
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he → sign → beef
The order added that the imported beef was to be sold at 25% below market prices.
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beef → add → prices
That helped push U.S. cattle prices lower, but the far bigger challenge, according to Raff, was the amount of uncertainty it introduced.
uncertain
it → push → uncertainty
"If I'm a producer, I think, well, look what's happening – perhaps next year they're going to import even more.
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they → think → more
The year after, there's going to be a different policy," said Raff.
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Raff → be → ?
"And I'm going to say, 'Well, these prices for my cattle right now are at record highs and projected to be high.
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prices → go → highs
So I'm just going to send my heifers to be processed.'
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I → go → heifers
I'm not going to decide to replace the beef herd when I know that there's a lot of uncertainty."
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I → go → uncertainty
This means the beef imports can have an added downside, disincentivizing producers from keeping breeding stock around that could grow the beef herd, which would lower beef prices in the long run.
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which → mean → run
From an economics 101 perspective, the Trump decision to import more beef does make sense as a way of bringing down consumer prices.
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decision → import → prices
But the 300,000 metric tons that could be exempted from tariffs is equivalent to around 2% of total US beef consumption.
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that → exempt → consumption
That made for a lose-lose situation: the policy was enough to rattle beef producers, but not enough to help consumers.
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policy → make → consumers
All of this looms over the 2026 midterm elections, especially in farm states such as Iowa.
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All → loom → Iowa
Iowa Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who's running for the state's open Senate seat, made news when she publicly broke with the Trump administration on its decision to lower tariffs on beef imports.
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she → run → imports
"We need to focus on affordability, but I think this isn't the way to do that," she said on Fox News.
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she → need → News
"I think we need to focus on helping our cattlemen grow their herd."
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cattlemen → think → herd
Her opponent, Democratic state legislator Josh Turek, has in turn been stressing that Hinson has supported some Trump policies that have hurt farmers writ large.
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that → stress → farmers
"She's been in favor of all this five times in favor of the tariffs," he said in an interview with NPR.
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he → say → NPR
"Farmers rely on markets, on free trade, more than any other group."
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Farmers → rely → group
In the governor's race, similarly, Democratic state auditor Rob Sand has sharply criticized Trump's trade policies, while Republican businessman Zach Lahn has avoided that kind of criticism.
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Lahn → criticize → criticism
Iowa Republican strategist David Oman says that in either race, the beef policy could be a deciding factor.
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policy → say → race
"Both of them will be two- or three-, four-point races in my view," he said.
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he → say → view
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
