A GOP congressman voted to cut Medicaid.
asserted
congressman → vote → Medicaid
It covers 62% of his district.
asserted
It → cover → district
Can he win?
asserted
he → win → ?
Ulises Hernandez, of Bakersfield, Calif., has had health coverage through Medicaid for as long as he can remember.
asserted
he → have → Medicaid
But he had never waited as long for care as he did in September after a dental crown slipped down his throat during a procedure.
asserted
crown → wait → procedure
He spent eight hours in an emergency room waiting for care and more than two days without food.
asserted
He → spend → food
Sitting in his wheelchair to protest looming federal Medicaid cuts outside Republican U.S. Rep. David Valadao's Bakersfield office, Hernandez described his wait as a foreshadowing of what's ahead.
"
asserted
what → sit → foreshadowing
I couldn't eat, I couldn't drink, I couldn't do anything, and I was in pain," said Hernandez, who had been discharged from the hospital a few days before.
asserted
who → eat → hospital
Hernandez, 41, said Valadao "should be ashamed of himself" for voting for the Republicans' One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
asserted
Valadao → say → Act
The law is expected to reduce Medicaid spending by more than $900 billion through 2034, with provisions such as stricter Medicaid eligibility rules and reducing federal money to states.
asserted
law → expect → states
Hernandez plans to vote for challenger Randy Villegas in hopes that this Central Valley toss-up district, where roughly 6 in 10 of constituents are enrolled in Medicaid, can help give Democrats control of Congress.
asserted
10 → plan → Congress
Villegas, a political science professor, has embraced the progressive rallying cry for "Medicare for All" and called out Valadao for a vote "that is going to rip away healthcare from Valley families," since many working-age adults may not satisfy new work requirements and twice-a-year eligibility checks that, by political design, start after the midterm elections.
uncertain
that → embrace → elections
Valadao defends his vote on the GOP bill.
asserted
Valadao → defend → bill
During a televised Oct. 6 debate, he said "there are no actual cuts" to Medicaid.
asserted
he → televise → Medicaid
An estimated 60,000 more residents of his district could be without coverage by 2034 due to the tax and spending bill and the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits for Affordable Care Act insurance plans, according to the left-leaning Center for American Progress think tank.
uncertain
residents → estimate → tank
Researchers estimate that those new rules will push more than 2 million Californians statewide off their coverage and that the state stands to lose about $30 billion a year, more than any other state.
asserted
state → estimate → state
Fertile Ground, High Unemployment
Bakersfield is an oil town, and it wears that identity proudly.
asserted
it → wear → identity
Pump jacks nod in the distance.
asserted
jacks → nod → distance
Streets run wide.
asserted
Streets → run → ?
The Kern River's bed lies dry, its water siphoned to feed the agricultural fields.
asserted
water → lie → fields
Sitting partially in the southernmost portion of the contested congressional district, this city produces much from the land, but unemployment is high.
asserted
unemployment → sit → land
Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in voter registrations by double-digit percentage points in Valadao's district since he was first elected to the U.S. House in 2012, yet he has won six of his seven congressional elections.
asserted
he → outnumber → elections
Valadao has survived by focusing on local issues such as water infrastructure and distancing himself from the Trump administration, said Jeffrey Cummins, a political science professor at California State University-Fresno.
asserted
Cummins → survive → University
Valadao is the last remaining Republican House incumbent who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol who is running for reelection to Congress.
asserted
who → remain → Congress
"This is an area where, even when we see the registration advantage for Democrats, that they are moderate Democrats who tend to be concerned with agricultural issues, and Valadao in the past has successfully appeased those voters," Cummins said.
asserted
Cummins → see → voters
But California's congressional map was redrawn last year as part of a national mid-decade redistricting fight, and Valadao's Central Valley seat is considered more favorable for Democrats than before.
asserted
seat → redrawn → Democrats
Cummins said a different mix of voters, coupled with anger toward incumbents, could flip the seat.
uncertain
mix → say → seat
"Valadao knows that he's on notice," Cummins said.
asserted
Cummins → know → notice
Nationwide, healthcare costs remain a top affordability concern for voters, and they trust Democrats over Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin on the issue, according to a September KFF poll.
uncertain
they → remain → poll
Valadao lost in 2018, when Democrats targeted his votes to repeal the ACA, as well as his alliance with Trump.
asserted
Democrats → lose → Trump
On Nov. 3, he faces Villegas, a populist backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) who favors a single-payer universal healthcare system.
asserted
who → face → system
"The system that we have now, we pay twice as much as other countries across the world, despite the fact that we have worse healthcare outcomes," Villegas said during the debate.
asserted
Villegas → have → debate
On Sept. 30, Valadao held a $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser.
asserted
Valadao → hold → fundraiser
It was hosted by House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is campaigning across 22 states in six weeks as Republicans try to hold the chamber.
asserted
Republicans → host → chamber
Afterward, press were allowed at an invitation-only reelection event in Bakersfield, held in an office building just outside of the new district Valadao hopes to represent.
asserted
Valadao → allow → district
Arches of red, white, and blue star-shaped balloons framed the small stage.
asserted
Arches → shape → stage
Neither lawmaker mentioned Medicaid or the rising cost of healthcare when they spoke to the audience.
asserted
they → mention → audience
After brief speeches, Valadao repeatedly refused to answer KFF Health News' questions about his vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and its impact on his constituents' Medicaid coverage, saying, "I think you are distorting the truth."
asserted
you → refuse → truth
Of the half dozen attendees KFF Health News approached among roughly 50 in the room, none lived in Valadao's district.
asserted
none → approach → district
They came anyway.
asserted
They → come → ?
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
