It's 9am at Kew Bridge in west London, and tourists, runners and dog walkers are queuing up at the Dear Coco vintage Italian coffee cart.
asserted
tourists → queue → cart
It is high-grade coffee made from the arabica bean, brewed in an expensive La Marzocco machine - and the price shows that, at £4.50 for an iced latte, £4.10 for a 10 oz latte, and £3.90 for a 6 oz flat white.
asserted
price → make → white
It's a price tag that would have once looked strikingly high, but across much of the UK the £4 threshold is well broken, including in chains that do not use the highest-grade beans.
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that → look → beans
A large coffee in central London, served with an alternative milk like soy or almond, is now closer to the £5 mark.
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coffee → serve → mark
Earlier this month in the US, Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol came under fire for suggesting a "$9 [£6.68] experience" at one of his outlets was a "really affordable premium experience".
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experience → come → outlets
The man working at the cart in Kew doesn't agree.
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man → work → Kew
He is relatively lucky; carts pay street trading fees rather than soaring rents and business rates.
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carts → pay → rents
But still, he is squeezed.
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he → squeeze → ?
"We feel super strongly about keeping the price of a flat white under £4 for as long as possible," Anthony Duckworth tells me, as rowing boats glide past.
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boats → feel → me
"But it's becoming increasingly difficult, because every part of the supply chain has become more expensive.
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part → become → chain
We think there's a really important psychological threshold around that four pound mark.
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We → think → mark
Coffee is not just a morning ritual, repeated worldwide: in fact, it's an insight into the modern global economy.
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it → repeat → economy
The latte sheds light on everything from commodity inflation to trade chaos; from geopolitical strife and climate change to Gen Z cultural tastes.
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latte → shed → tastes
It teaches us about rampant new demand from the Chinese middle class, and the long-hanging economic effects of the Vietnam War.
asserted
It → teach → War
The modern coffee journey started in Turin, northern Italy, at a train station in 1895.
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journey → start → 1895
Steam-powered coffee machines were developed to cater to time-poor travellers, often on the Milan express - one theory for the name "espresso".
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machines → power → name
Near the Turin ring road, at a glass and steel structure, I speak to Giuseppe Lavazza, whose great-grandfather launched the Lavazza coffee brand 131 years ago.
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grandfather → speak → brand
"The secret of surviving is having a company ready to modify," he tells me while holding what he hopes is his next great innovation: a cookie of coffee, called a tabli, that he hopes will serve the growing at-home coffee market, without the need for environmentally questionable metal pods.
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he → survive → pods
In recent years his industry has encountered serious hiccups - affecting both of the world's most important coffee beans.
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industry → encounter → beans
At one end of the market, arabica beans, known for their sweetness and aroma, are hand-picked at cool altitudes in Brazil, Ethiopia, and Kenya; it's a careful process, even more intricate than the harvesting of grapes for the finest champagne.
asserted
it → know → champagne
At the other end, robusta beans, known for their high levels of caffeine, are mass harvested by machines.
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beans → know → machines
Vietnam has cornered the market on robusta since emerging from its war in the 1970s.
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Vietnam → corner → 1970s
The climate squeeze
Two years ago, a convergence of climatic events pushed the price of both beans to multi-decade highs.
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convergence → push → highs
In early 2024, Vietnam suffered its worst drought in decades (rainfall collapsed by 30%); then, late last year, a typhoon during harvest hit production too.
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typhoon → suffer → production
And in Brazil, farmers are still struggling to recover from a severe frost in 2021 that damaged the arabica crop.
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that → struggle → crop
As a result, arabica prices peaked last year above $4 (£2.97) per pound of green beans, up from about $1.20 historically.
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prices → peak → 1.20
It has now settled at $3.08.
asserted
It → settle → 3.08
Robusta beans increased even more, reaching $2.59 (£1.92) before settling at about $1.56.
asserted
beans → increase → 1.56
Both beans now cost significantly more than they did before 2020.
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they → cost → 2020
Lavazza calls the last few years an "unprecedented time in terms of complexity and troubles".
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Lavazza → call → complexity
And he says prices are unlikely to drop any time soon.
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prices → say → ?
"Unfortunately, we have to wait for at least a couple of years, because we need two big crops from Brazil, Vietnam, arriving on the market that could create a different market condition."
uncertain
that → have → condition
Lavazza also points to speculation in the financial markets.
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Lavazza → point → markets
Every morning at 4.30am, thousands of Vietnamese coffee farmers check their smartphones to see the prices (and predicted future prices) of robusta beans.
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thousands → check → beans
It's become a daily ritual.
asserted
It → become → ?
And the Hanoi office of the US government's Foreign Agricultural Service says that with price information so easily available online, many farmers are choosing to store - rather than sell - their coffee beans after harvest, in the hope prices will rise further.
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prices → say → hope
Essentially, they're playing the markets.
asserted
they → play → markets
Some analysts expect a bumper harvest of the arabica bean, which should drive down prices.
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which → expect → prices
On the other hand, the prospect of a "super" El Niño predicted this autumn - a warming of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every few years - could lead to more turmoil.
uncertain
that → predict → turmoil
A curiosity of Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, announced last year, was that coffee producing nations were sharply hit.
asserted
nations → announce → tariffs
…and 46 more, not listed.
