Britain's public services will still be worse than before the Covid crisis by 2030 despite Labour's huge spending splurge, according to a damning new report.
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services → accord → report
A study of hospitals, prisons, courts, police, schools and local government found that, by the time of the next general election, most will still be performing worse than they were before the pandemic.
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they → find → pandemic
The Institute for Government (IfG) analysis said Andy Burnham had 'limited time, funding and capacity to make meaningful improvements' to public services before the country next goes to the polls, which is expected in 2029.
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which → say → 2029
It also offered a withering verdict on Keir Starmer's efforts at public service reform before he was ousted as Prime Minister by Mr Burnham in July.
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he → offer → July
This is despite Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves, the former Chancellor, raising taxes to allow for billions of pounds of extra funding across Whitehall departments.
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Keir → raise → departments
The report added that Mr Burnham now 'faces many of the same problems' his predecessor did but with the 'added complexity' of some 'poorly conceived' reforms enacted by Sir Keir.
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predecessor → add → Keir
The IfG's annual performance tracker of public services, funded by the Nuffield Foundation charity, pointed to Sir Keir's plan to abolish NHS England as an 'egregious' example of his reforms having 'little clarity of purpose or clear plan for what it was supposed to achieve'.
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it → fund → what
'More than a year and a half on from Starmer’s announcement, the NHS England abolition is drifting, suffering from no clear political direction,' the report said.
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report → drift → direction
The Institute for Government (IfG) analysis said Andy Burnham had 'limited time, funding and capacity to make meaningful improvements' to public services
The study warned the country's prison system was 'only the first of several areas where performance may well worsen before the next election'.
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performance → say → election
It said, in the school system, Labour's hoped-for reforms 'hinge on optimistic forecasts' about the Government’s ability to slow the growth of education, health and care plans (EHCPs)' for children with special needs or disabilities.
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reforms → say → needs
'Not only does that threaten the viability of schools reforms, but the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) identifies SEND pressures as a threat to the deliverability of the Government’s entire spending envelope,' the report added.
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report → threaten → envelope
Overall, the IfG analysis found that 'all else being equal, performance is likely to improve in most services compared to 2024' by the time of the next general election.
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performance → find → election
But it continued: 'The baseline was so low in 2024, with services dealing with so many backlogs in demand, that those relatively small performance increases are unlikely to return services to pre-pandemic performance levels – let alone those seen in 2010, when Labour last left office.
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Labour → continue → office
'And as analysis across each sector shows, those settlements are unlikely to be sufficient to improve performance by as much as the government has promised.
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government → show → much
'By looking at anticipated increases in demand, our analysis may not capture all pressures on services’ budgets, however.
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analysis → look → budgets
'There are other reasons to believe that funding may not be sufficient to improve performance over the course of this parliament.'
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funding → be → parliament
Stuart Hoddinott, the report's author, said: 'Starmer makes much of his record on public services.
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Starmer → say → services
And he can claim some limited success.
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he → claim → success
But his refusal or inability to align ministers behind his reform agenda means he leaves behind a mess of ongoing reforms.
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he → align → reforms
Some of those directly contradict Burnham's devolution agenda and others will slow services' progress towards the new prime minister's priorities.
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others → contradict → priorities
'With relatively tight funding settlements, Burnham has a mountain to climb to substantially improve performance across all services before the next election.'
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Burnham → have → election
Mark Franks, from the Nuffield Foundation, said: 'Demands for increased spending across multiple policy areas combined with higher debt interest costs create a challenging backdrop for a Government trying to improve public services and stick to its fiscal rules.
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Demands → say → rules
'Higher inflation also threatens to erode the value of departmental budgets fixed in cash terms, adding to the strain on already stretched services.
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inflation → threaten → services
'The Government will need to manage these immediate pressures alongside taking forward its plans for longer-term policy reform.'
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Government → need → reform
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