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South Korea should have been Ukraine’s natural ally in its war against Russia.
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Korea → log → Russia
Instead, Seoul and Kyiv have ended up in an unprecedented diplomatic rift no one saw coming.
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one → end → rift
A dispute over Ukraine’s handling of the transfer of two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea has escalated into a full-blown bilateral crisis, with Seoul announcing that it was withdrawing some of its diplomatic personnel from Kyiv.
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it → escalate → Kyiv
It had already recalled its ambassador in protest.
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It → recall → protest
Announcing the decision, the South Korean foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Kyiv had failed to take “constructive steps” to resolve the dispute, while persistent Russian airstrikes had also raised concerns over the safety of its diplomatic staff.
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airstrikes → announce → staff
Seoul, though, would keep a Chargé d’affaires and essential personnel in Kyiv to maintain contact with Ukrainian authorities and assist South Korean citizens.
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Seoul → keep → citizens
The dispute began last month after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky publicly announced at the UN General Assembly that Kyiv had transferred two North Korean soldiers captured fighting for Russia to South Korea.
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Kyiv → begin → Korea
Seoul accused Kyiv of breaching an agreement to keep the transfer confidential to protect the soldiers, but Ukrainian officials denied any such deal existed.
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deal → accuse → soldiers
With South Korea’s international credibility at stake, president Lee Jae Myung reprimanded Ukraine in unusually harsh language, accusing Zelensky of "plotting for the outbreak of war on the Korean Peninsula”.
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Myung → reprimand → Peninsula
The dispute soon escalating into a diplomatic row with Seoul recalling its ambassador to Ukraine.
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Seoul → escalate → Ukraine
A spokesperson for South Korea’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Seoul was “still maintaining communication” while announcing the withdrawal of diplomatic staff.
“As I mentioned earlier, our goal is to seek an amicable resolution through close consultation with the Ukrainian side,” Park Doosoon said.
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Doosoon → say → side
“We conveyed our clear position and requests over the pending issues between the two countries through various channels.
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We → convey → channels
It’s now up to the Ukrainian side to provide a response or take appropriate action on those matters.
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It → ’ → matters
As bilateral relations deteriorated, Ukraine last week accused South Korea of supplying 31 per cent of Russia’s fuel imports in August.
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Ukraine → deteriorate → August
South Korea “helped Russia offset the impact of losing its own refining capacity” caused by a Ukrainian attack on a major refinery, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, a Ukrainian expert on sanctions, claimed.
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Vlasiuk → help → sanctions
He said South Korea exported more than 176,000 tonnes of petroleum products to Russia in July and August.
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Korea → say → July
“These shipments began precisely when Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries were reducing processing volumes and creating a fuel shortage within Russia,” Vlasiuk wrote on Facebook.
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Vlasiuk → begin → Facebook
Seoul objected to the allegations, calling them “incorrect and inappropriate” and asking Kyiv not to “undermine international trust without sufficient verification of the facts”.
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Seoul → object → facts
The unusual public confrontation raised questions about how relations between two countries facing the consequences of growing Russian-North Korean military cooperation deteriorated so sharply.
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relations → raise → cooperation
Experts say South Korea’s defensive and confrontational stance may be part of a balancing act.
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stance → say → act
As US support to Ukraine appears to be waning under Donald Trump’s quid pro quo foreign policy, Seoul may not want to antagonise Russia, which it sees as a potential diplomatic intermediary with Pyongyang, they say.
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they → appear → Pyongyang
“The Lee government may be hesitant to increase support for Kyiv while the Trump administration’s backing is uncertain,” Leif-Eric Easley, professor of International Studies at Ewha University in Seoul, tells The Independent.
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Easley → increase → Independent
“South Korean progressives also tend to prioritise inter-Korean relations and believe that one road to Pyongyang goes through Moscow,” he adds.
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he → tend → Moscow
Lee, who belongs to the progressive political camp, which traditionally prioritises dialogue and reconciliation with Pyongyang, has expanded overtures to North Korea as well as Moscow, helping Seoul open communication with North Korea.
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Seoul → belong → Korea
“It is indeed very unfortunate,” says Tong Zhao, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, referring to deteriorating ties between Kyiv and Seoul.
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Zhao → say → Kyiv
“However, these frictions also reflect a broader tension in South Korea’s current foreign-policy orientation: Seoul seeks the benefits of close cooperation with Western partners while developing relations with countries like China, Russia, and North Korea.
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Seoul → reflect → China
“President Lee, in particular, has promoted efforts to engage with countries across the geopolitical spectrum.”
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Lee → promote → spectrum
Lee’s approach is a departure in emphasis from that of his conservative predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol, whose administration pursued a tougher stance towards North Korea and closer security cooperation with Washington and Tokyo.
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administration → pursue → Washington
Despite Pyongyang’s categorical rejection of Seoul’s overtures and its openly dismissive rhetoric toward the South, Lee has continued to pursue engagement,” Zhao says.
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Zhao → continue → engagement
“This reflects a broader preference for maximising South Korea’s practical interests, even when doing so requires accommodating the stated interests and sensitivities of governments that do not share Seoul’s political values or strategic outlook.
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that → reflect → values
But it comes at a time when Lee is working towards accelerating South Korea’s efforts to expand arms exports to Nato members as Europe moves to increase defence spending.
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Europe → come → spending
He attended the Nato summit in July in Ankara with the aim of entering the world's biggest defence market and establishing supply chains with the alliance.
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He → attend → alliance
Easley says what is unrealistic is that “some apparently hold the incorrect notion that Seoul can have its cake and eat it too in terms of ties with Russia and arms sales to Europe”.
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Seoul → say → Europe
The South Korean president appears in no mood to de-escalate.
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president → appear → mood
Seoul has now announced the recall of its ambassador to Ukraine after Kyiv’s refusal to acknowledge the secrecy pact over PoW transfer and an apology was deemed “insufficient”.
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apology → announce → transfer
The foreign ministry said the “government has decided to recall its ambassador to Ukraine to Seoul”, referring to ambassador Park Hee-chang.
"We hope that various issues between the two countries will be resolved smoothly, and we will continue consultations with the Ukrainian side to that end," it added.
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it → say → end
Sanghun Seok, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, says the public confrontation between Seoul and Kyiv seems to be “growing unnecessarily contentious”.
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confrontation → say → Seoul
“The broader mood in Seoul seems to be that it is now becoming harder to understand whether Kyiv’s priority is to deepen cooperation or to prioritise public pressure even where it actually makes it harder for Seoul to consider what forms of cooperation may be possible,” he says.
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he → seem → cooperation
Seoul is also likely to avoid provoking North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, who openly backs Putin's war against Ukraine and can directly threaten its neighbour’s territory.
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who → avoid → territory
Lee’s position is not incomprehensible, analysts say, as the diplomatic row has unfolded against an increasingly volatile security situation on the Korean peninsula.
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row → say → peninsula
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
