In a former swing state that has in recent years become reliably red, moderate Democratic candidates Alex Vindman and David Jolly are heavily favored to become the party’s nominees for November’s Senate and governor’s race, respectively.
asserted
Vindman → become → race
Analysts say the brand of progressive liberalism that worked so well for Democratic candidates in Minnesota, Michigan and New York, won’t cut it with voters in conservative Florida, and neither are Vindman, frontrunner for the Senate nomination to challenge Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, or Jolly, vying to succeed Ron DeSantis as governor, trying to sell it.
asserted
Vindman → say → it
“There is a lot of curiosity about me from more traditional, pre-Trump-era Republicans that feel homeless,” Vindman said in March as he weighed the broad coalition of voters he will need to topple Moody, appointed by Republican DeSantis in January 2025 to replace Marco Rubio after his elevation to secretary of state.
asserted
he → be → state
“I’m running here as a kind of a different kind of Democrat, I’ve got my handguns, a concealed carry permit, not the standard fare.”
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I → run → handguns
Florida has closed primaries, meaning only those voters who have declared party affiliation can choose its nominees.
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who → close → nominees
But Vindman and Jolly are already looking to court independents and disgruntled Republicans beyond Tuesday.
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Vindman → look → Tuesday
Vindman, a retired army lt col, and an impeachment witness against Trump during the president’s first term of office, is polling clear of state representative Angie Nixon in the Democratic primary.
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Vindman → poll → primary
He has run a “Florida First” campaign that leans heavily on establishment values – the economy, social security stability for seniors, and tackling corruption in Washington.
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that → run → Washington
“My race is entirely focused on my opponent, I’m not focused on anything besides Ashley Moody,” he said.
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he → focus → Moody
“I feel a huge amount of support and kind of a new hope for a balanced politics in this state.”
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I → feel → state
Jolly, a former Republican congressman who became a Democrat last year, and is the most prominent name in a crowded field for the party’s governor’s nomination, also believes his moderate credentials are an asset.
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credentials → become → nomination
In an interview with the Associated Press last week, Jolly stated he had no plans to try to reverse DeSantis’s ban on transgender girls and women athletes playing on female teams at public schools and universities.
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he → state → schools
“I don’t think we should have biologically born men playing in competitive sports,” he said in comments starkly at odds with pro-diversity positions taken by progressive victors elsewhere, such as Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed, who promised to be “a lion” for LGBTQ+ rights if elected to the Senate.
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who → think → Senate
Even so, the likely Republican candidate for governor has been declared to be a “radical liberal” by Byron Donalds, the Trump-aligned congressman who is the clear favorite for the Republican nomination.
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who → declare → nomination
In attack ads prevalent on Florida’s television screens in recent days, Donalds has painted Jolly as a fervent supporter of the transgender community, attempted insults Jolly has shrugged off by challenging Donalds on issues he said matter more to “regular” Floridians, such as soaring costs for property, insurance, gas and groceries, instead of focusing on culture war issues.
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he → paint → issues
The man of the people approach is also a theme for Jay Collins, DeSantis’s lieutenant governor, and one of three Republicans challenging Donalds for the nomination.
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approach → challenge → nomination
“I mow my own yard.
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I → mow → yard
I gas up my own truck.
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I → gas → truck
I live the same Florida life that working families live,” Collins, a former Green Beret, told reporters in a press conference Thursday that portrayed Donalds, a congressman since 2021, as an absentee Washington elite.
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that → live → elite
“We won’t win with vibes.
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We → win → vibes
We’re certainly not going to win with celebrity.”
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We → go → celebrity
Other Republicans in the governor’s race are James Fishback, a far-right extremist who has endured a bumpy primary campaign, and Paul Renner, the former speaker of the Florida house and legislative ally of DeSantis, who has declined to make a primary endorsement.
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who → endure → endorsement
Polling shows Donalds close to 50%, with his rivals at 15% or below.
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Polling → show → %
Political analysts see voter dissatisfaction in Florida with Trump, and the soon-to-be termed-out DeSantis to a degree, but nothing likely to spark a wholesale ideological swing.
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analysts → see → swing
“Going back many decades, if you look at Florida’s political culture, it’s moderate to conservative,” said Aubrey Jewett, professor of political science at the University of Central Florida.
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Jewett → go → Florida
“Roughly 40% of Floridians say they’re moderate, 40% say they’re conservative, and only about 20% say they’re liberal.
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they → say → Floridians
It’s been steady for decades, and one way of saying there’s just not as many progressives, or liberals, or socialists, in Florida as apparently there are in some other places currently.
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It → say → places
“Unlike some of the big battles we’ve seen nationwide between the progressive socialist wing of the Democratic party and the moderate wing, I don’t think that’s going to be the case in Florida.
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that → see → Florida
The voters will sort it out but from a Democratic perspective it would be good for them if they got the more moderate candidates, and I think that’s what most Democrats feel.”
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Democrats → sort → what
Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic party, and its most recent winner of statewide election when she became agriculture commissioner in 2018, largely sees the middle ground as the key to reversing years of disappointment.
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she → become → disappointment
“The coalition that makes up Florida is different.
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that → make → Florida
Every demographic inside the Democratic party is more conservative than the demographics outside of our state,” she said.
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she → say → state
“And a coalition here that has to be built is very unique to Florida, candidates running up and down the ticket from first responders to veterans, Teach for America alumni, and just everyday Floridians who are frustrated with the state affairs here.
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who → have → affairs
“All of them have been at the doors, on the phones, talking to voters for the better part of the last year and a half, and really listening, listening to concerns from Floridians.
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All → talk → Floridians
And it’s a pretty consistent drumbeat.”
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it → ’ → ?
Fried said she expects a voter backlash to DeSantis’s partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts, which was intended to reduce Democrats’ hold on the state’s 28 seats from eight to four.
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which → say → four
It forced some candidates to switch districts mid-campaign, and set up rancorous primary races elsewhere between leftist hopefuls and established congress members.
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It → force → hopefuls
Fried said DeSantis’s move could backfire.
uncertain
move → say → ?
“Right now, the Republicans have a nasty primary for governor that is going to decrease their motivation to turn out in November,” she said.
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she → have → November
“You have a president who is significantly underwater, and a state where for 30 years one party has had control and people can’t afford to live here.
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people → have → control
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
