On August 18, eight air strikes hit the Abu al-Duhur military base in Idlib, Syria, causing damage but no casualties, according to Syrian state media. The attacks were attributed to Israeli forces by a Syrian military source quoted by state TV. This is the first attack on the airbase since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in December 2024.
The Israeli Prime Minister's office claimed that Israel had attacked the base because Syria was on the verge of breaching an agreed-upon "status quo" by allowing Turkish troops to deploy there, which would pose a threat to Israel's security. Turkey has been training and assisting the Syrian military, but also has strained relations with Israel.
The attack drew condemnation from Turkey, with Ankara accusing Israel of trying to destabilize Syria and undermine its new administration. The US envoy also criticized the Israeli strike as an "unnecessary escalation" that does not advance regional stability.
In response to the attack, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's office said that lasting regional peace could only be achieved if Israel respected international law and abandoned its "aggressive expansionist policies". Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel will not tolerate a Turkish military presence expanding southward in Syria.
| Signal | Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Correction rate | 0.000 | 0.4 |
| Uncertainty density | 0.070 | 0.25 |
| Assertive mismatch rate | 0.000 | 0.35 |