Johnny Garcia, the Democratic nominee in Texas’ 35th congressional district, spent one of the last mornings before the start of early voting meeting with veterans over breakfast tacos and boxed coffee at a VFW hall in San Antonio’s Southside.
asserted
Garcia → spend → Southside
That’s not surprising for a candidate running in a place known as “Military City, USA.”
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That → ’ → City
In a district Donald Trump would have carried by 11 points in 2024, a C-SPAN camera was there too, to capture the scene in what is shaping up to be one of the more unexpectedly competitive House races of 2026.
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what → carry → 2026
It wasn’t supposed to be this close.
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It → suppose → ?
The 35th is one of five districts that were redrawn last summer to replace incumbent Democrats with Republicans, as part of President Donald Trump’s effort to preserve his party’s House majority through a wave of mid-decade redistricting.
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that → redrawn → redistricting
Kamala Harris carried Rep. Greg Casar’s old 35th—which extended from Austin to San Antonio—by 34 points.
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which → carry → points
The almost entirely new 35th, stretching south and east of the city into rural counties of South Texas, is solidly Republican territory.
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35th → stretch → Texas
Casar moved to the neighboring 37th district, which includes his Austin base, but the race for his old seat is tight.
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race → move → seat
Fox News and the Cook Political Report have shifted the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
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News → shift → Republican
Trump recently visited San Antonio, in part to shore up support for Garcia’s Republican opponent, Carlos de la Cruz.
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Trump → visit → opponent
And the Democratic group House Majority PAC recently announced $1.2 million in spending on a race its polling showed was within the margin of error.
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polling → announce → error
What changed?
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What → change → ?
“The district woke up, on both sides of the aisle—I’m meeting more fed-up Republicans than I ever have here,” Garcia told me when we spoke after the event.
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we → wake → event
A soft-spoken, self-described “old school Democrat” from San Antonio, Garcia has a background that’s helped insulate him against standard Republican attacks: He spent nearly two decades as a Bexar County sheriff’s deputy before entering the race, and has worked as a SWAT team hostage negotiator.
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He → describe → negotiator
Leaning forward in a folding chair, wearing a white Stetson he removed only to thank an older woman for showing up, Garcia rattled off a list of Trump administration policies and economic factors that have hammered people in his district—tariffs, the never-ending war with Iran, and the rising price of everything from groceries to child care to utility bills.
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that → lean → bills
The average age of first-time homeowners was now 40, he noted (he’s still a renter at age 39), and even modest comforts came with a higher cost.
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comforts → note → cost
“People just want to make it to Sunday to buy barbacoa and Big Red, and unfortunately, under this economy, it’s a whole lot harder to do so.”
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it → want → economy
Working-class, heavily Latino areas of San Antonio—and across South Texas—shifted hard toward Republicans over the last few election cycles.
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areas → shift → cycles
But Garcia told me Republicans in Washington had failed their electorate.
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Republicans → tell → electorate
“We’re seeing a 16-point shift of Latinos coming back to the party—the folks that they thought were just going to vote for them up and down the ballot again this election cycle.
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they → see → ballot
The way Democrats and Biden failed us here on the border, Republicans are seeing them failing on the economic issues.
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them → fail → issues
The things that they promised are ultimately being kicked down the road.
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they → promise → road
The 35th district isn’t the only place where Republicans’ redistricting ambitions are facing major headwinds.
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ambitions → face → headwinds
While Republicans are still likely to net seats in the state, it has become an increasingly expensive endeavor thanks largely to the president’s plummeting popularity among Latino voters.
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it → net → voters
The redistricting plan approved by state Republicans last summer was designed to pick up as many as five seats by eliminating Casar’s Austin seat, Rep. Al Green’s Houston seat, and Rep. Julie Johnson’s Dallas seat, and by making two Democratic seats in South Texas (held by Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez) more Republican.
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seats → approve → Cuellar
In response, Green and Johnson both tried to run in different districts and lost their primaries.
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Green → try → primaries
Casar avoided a primary in a newly consolidated Austin district when Rep. Lloyd Doggett stepped aside.
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Doggett → avoid → district
But Cuellar and Gonzalez, representing seats Trump carried by double digits, vowed to hold on, and they still might.
uncertain
they → represent → digits
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the campaign arm of the House GOP, recently cancelled $3 million worth of advertisements in Cuellar’s district, where the incumbent has weathered a bribery indictment (he was pardoned by Trump before the case could proceed and has denied wrongdoing) and consistently led his challenger.
uncertain
case → cancel → challenger
Gonzalez narrowly led Republican Eric Flores in the only public poll of his race.
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Gonzalez → lead → race
And while Republicans are still likely to pick up a seat in the Dallas area, Fox News shifted its rating of the newly gerrymandered 9th district near Houston from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” last week, suggesting a tightening race between Republican Alex Mealer and Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.
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News → pick → Mealer
Meanwhile, Democrats have a real shot at flipping a South Texas seat Republicans already hold—in the 15th district, where Rep. Monica de la Cruz (Carlos’ sister) is in a tight race with Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star.
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Cruz → have → Pulido
Cook now considers that race a toss-up.
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race → consider → ?
The Republican redistricting ploy is still unlikely, however, to prove to be a “dummymander”—a map that ends up costing the party seats by leaving Republicans more vulnerable in a wave.
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that → prove → wave
In part that’s because Republicans learned from their experience in 2012, when they did draw a dummymander that came back to bite them in 2018.
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that → ’ → 2018
That year, they lost 12 state House of representative seats and two congressional seats.
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they → lose → seats
The damage was compounded by the fact that it was suburban communities in the state’s largest metros—areas that had once helped sustain Republican rule—that shifted hardest toward Democrats in Trump’s first term.
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that → compound → term
You could think of a dummymander as akin to building at sea level without accounting for climate change.
uncertain
You → think → change
(In fact, the people drawing these maps are exactly the kinds of people who would also advocate doing that.)
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who → draw → that
Democrats have had to sweat to put the 35th district in play.
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Democrats → have → play
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
