It’s a sad reality of this injury-ravaged era of NBA history: when it comes to projecting the outcome of a season, the word “if” inevitably does a lot of heavy lifting.
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word → ’ → lifting
• If Kawhi Leonard is healthy enough to play a sufficient swath of the regular season and, more importantly, healthy come playoff time …
• And if Jakob Poeltl, Toronto’s only traditional big man, finds a way to nurse his chronically injured back through the rigours of the 82-game grind and into the post-season …
• And if the otherwise undersized Raptors find a way to hold their own protecting the paint and cleaning the defensive boards …
• And if Toronto’s seemingly perennial need for more three-point shooting can be at least partly addressed by the presence of newcomers like Leonard and rookie Allen Graves, not to mention the internal improvement of incumbent rotation players Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamison Battle …
• And if Scottie Barnes makes good on his vow to be named to the NBA’s all-defensive first team for the first time in his career …
Check off most of the boxes on that list and there is every reason to believe Toronto’s NBA team has a chance to be among the top contenders to win the Eastern Conference.
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team → play → Conference
Not that the East isn’t stacked; it will be.
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it → stack → ?
But every team has its list of “ifs.”
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team → have → ifs
The reigning NBA champion New York Knicks can make a case they’re the favourites to repeat as titlists — if, that is, they somehow avoid the perils of an extended championship hangover after becoming conquering heroes of the city that never sleeps, and if owner James Dolan’s vow to avoid the second apron doesn’t undo team chemistry.
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vow → reign → chemistry
Nick Nurse’s Philadelphia 76ers can be considered a championship factor — if 41-year-old LeBron James and newly acquired Jaylen Brown can coexist with the mercurial Joel Embiid, the only NBA MVP to have never advanced to a conference final.
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James → consider → final
The Boston Celtics, even after giving up Brown to the Sixers in a deal that got them Paul George, can still be title contenders — if, of course, Jayson Tatum can return to all-NBA form after rupturing his Achilles tendon in the 2025 Eastern Conference semifinals against the Knicks.
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Tatum → give → Knicks
And speaking of post-catastrophic-injury storylines: the Indiana Pacers, who led at halftime of Game 7 of 2025 NBA Finals, figure to be back in the competitive picture after finishing 29th overall last season.
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who → speak → picture
The big “if” there is attached to Tyrese Haliburton, who missed the entirety of last season rehabbing the Achilles he tore in that winner-take-all contest against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
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he → attach → Thunder
The Miami Heat, thanks to their acquisition of Giannis Antetokounmpo, have done enough to be taken seriously as an Eastern power — if the new-in-town Greek Freak can still be a dominant force at age 31.
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Freak → do → age
Barrett and Quickley are options behind Leonard and Barnes but Murray-Boyles could pass them both.
uncertain
Boyles → pass → them
Barrett and Quickley are options behind Leonard and Barnes but Murray-Boyles could pass them both.
uncertain
Boyles → pass → them
The Detroit Pistons, after earning the No. 1 Eastern seed with 60 wins, can make a case they’re a better team for experiencing the disappointment of a second-round playoff exit — if, that is, the playoff exit wasn’t a red flag alerting the league to fatal flaws that won’t be easily fixed.
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that → earn → flaws
The Raptors, for their part, can take a measure of heart in their first-round exit.
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Raptors → take → exit
Playing without lead guard Immanuel Quickley, and with leading regular-season scorer Brandon Ingram on one leg, the Raptors gave the Cavs all they could handle in the opening round.
uncertain
they → play → round
And for all the flaws the Raptors exposed in Cleveland’s lineup, the Cavaliers found a way to advance all the way to the Eastern final.
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Cavaliers → expose → final
That fact alone — that a not-so-intimidating Cleveland team made it to the NBA’s final four a season ago — ought to give the Raptors hope that they can get there, too, and perhaps beyond.
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they → intimidate → hope
Last spring’s playoff run, as much as it ended in heartbreak, was a source of intriguing storylines.
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it → end → storylines
It was a showcase for RJ Barrett, who hit the memorable high-bouncing overtime buzzer-beating three that forced Game 7, and who hasn’t hidden his pre-season disappointment in not being rewarded with a contract extension.
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who → hit → extension
And maybe most important, the playoffs were a proving ground for Collin Murray-Boyles, who provided a disruptive defensive presence off the bench (and who averaged 14 points and six rebounds a game in the post-season) before he turned 21 in June.
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he → provide → June
The idea that a newly leaned-out Murray-Boyles figures to be an even more explosive force as an NBA sophomore only strengthens the thesis that the Raptors — with Leonard as the bucket-getting alpha, with a healthy Quickley, and with Barrett in a contract year — will be a tough out.
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Raptors → lean → year
If, that is, the season breaks their way.
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season → break → way
Every “if” matters.
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if → matter → ?
They’ll all matter a lot less if Leonard isn’t available when it counts.
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it → matter → ?
The Aporia
