Labour will hike taxes at the Budget, two thirds of Brits predict in new poll ahead of 'critical test' for Chancellor

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Merriman, S. (2026, October 19). Labour will hike taxes at the Budget, two thirds of Brits predict in new poll ahead of 'critical test' for Chancellor. Daily Mail. https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16221367/Labour-hike-taxes-Budget-Brits-predict-poll-Chancellor.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

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Daily Mail · collected 2026-10-19 · by Sam Merriman

Quick Summary

A new Ipsos poll reveals that 65% of Britons expect Labour to raise taxes at Chancellor John Healey's upcoming Budget on October 28th, with only 5% predicting tax cuts. The survey also indicates a pessimistic public mood, as 58% believe the country is heading in the wrong direction compared to just 18% who see things improving. Ipsos research director Alex Bogdan notes that this poll highlights the significant challenge Healey faces in balancing economic concerns and public expectations during the Budget announcement.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-19, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 19, 2026, a new Ipsos poll shows that 65% of Britons predict the Labour government will raise taxes in Chancellor John Healey's upcoming Budget announcement on October 28. This prediction comes as Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces significant public skepticism, with 58% of respondents believing the country is heading in the wrong direction. The poll indicates that despite previous tax hikes under former Chancellor Rachel Reeves totaling £75 billion, there are expectations for further increases to address a welfare bill forecasted to reach £400 billion by the end of the decade. Additionally, 30% of Britons anticipate an increase in spending on benefits, which is seen as a critical test for Healey's economic policies given current public pessimism about the economy.

Written for “Labour Taxes Predictions Poll” on 2026-10-20, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans left for article 92111 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-19

Story

📰 Labour Taxes Predictions Poll
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 17% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 3 of 18 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss related economic and political contexts but describe different events: one is about Healey's IMF visit discussing tough financial times, while the other is a poll predicting tax hikes for an upcoming Budget.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 15% hedged 3 of 20 📰 publisher trust 69
“The articles discuss related topics about expected tax hikes in the upcoming Budget but describe different aspects and sources (banking executives vs. public opinion poll).”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 6% hedged 1 of 16 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss related topics but describe different aspects - one is about union demands for a tax raid on banks, while the other reports public expectations based on a poll regarding potential tax hikes at the upcoming Budget.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 24 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A discusses a specific call for hiking taxes on banks' profits, while Article B reports on public expectations for tax hikes at the upcoming Budget based on a poll.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 24 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss related topics but describe different events: one focuses on a current market reaction to reports about potential tax changes, while the other is about a public opinion poll predicting Labour's Budget decisions.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 7 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming Budget and public expectations rather than describing the same specific incident.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 3 of 30 📰 publisher trust 64
“The articles discuss expectations around the upcoming Budget but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

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Claims extracted
18
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
17%
3 of 18 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
64/100
Daily Mail's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-19 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Daily Mail · 6349 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Sam Merriman
19 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Some 65 per cent of Britons expect Labour to announce tax rises next week, compared to just five per cent of people who think taxes will be lowered, the Ipsos poll found.
🔮 Mrs Badenoch's main themes were: Defiance for the future and Tory turncoats The Conservative leader warned there was a 'fight coming' that would be a 'battle for the soul of the nation' at the next election.
🔮 Schools would have to kick political activism out of the classroom to stop teachers ‘brainwashing our children’ under plans unveiled by the shadow education secretary.
🔮 But, should the Tories win back power, they would not ‘just accept you sitting at home’.
🔮 The Conservative leader said getting threats was 'really tough, but you just have to get on with it' after the ex paramilitary man said she would be left in 'a ditch with a bullet in her head'.
🔮 The Prime Minister visited the Manchester Central Mosque in February, when he was mayor of the city, and shared an Iftar meal with worshippers at the mosque.
🔮 Penny Mordaunt will be allowed to stand as a Conservative candidate at the next general election despite reports she had been blocked.
🔮 G7 countries including Britain, France and Germany said they would release up to 100 million barrels starting immediately after the US threatened a diesel export ban.
🔮 Mr Burnham claimed Brexit had done ‘more harm than good’ and said he would unveil a series of ‘options’ for Britain’s future relationship with Brussels, including embracing the single market and customs union, and even rejoining the EU.
Also by Sam Merriman
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 19 articles by Sam Merriman →

Topics

Britons Budget Ipsos Labour UNISON

Subjects

Labour ORG · 6× Britons NORP · 3× Budget ORG · 3× Ipsos ORG · 3× John Healey PERSON · 3× Healey PERSON · 2× UNISON ORG · 2× Andy Burnham's PERSON · 1× Brits NORP · 1× Rachel Reeves PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Almost two thirds of Brits expect Chancellor John Healey (right, with Prime Minister Andy Burnham) to increase taxes to balance the books at the Budget Meanwhile 30 per cent of Britons think Mr Burnham will increase spending on benefits at the Budget - despite the ballooning welfare bill being forecast to hit £400billion by the end of the decade.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-19
🔮 Some 65 per cent of Britons expect Labour to announce tax rises next week, compared to just five per cent of people who think taxes will be lowered, the Ipsos poll found.

Claims (18 extracted, 3 hedged)

Almost two thirds of Britons expect Labour to hike taxes at Andy Burnham's first Budget as Prime Minister next week, according to a new poll. uncertain
Labour → expect → poll
Some 58 per cent of people think the country is heading in the 'wrong direction', compared to just 18 per cent who believe things are looking up, the research by Ipsos found. asserted
research → think → Ipsos
The pollster said that Chancellor John Healey faces a 'critical test' on 28 October as public optimism about the economy 'remains stubbornly subdued by historic standards'. asserted
optimism → say → standards
Some 65 per cent of Britons expect Labour to announce tax rises next week, compared to just five per cent of people who think taxes will be lowered, the Ipsos poll found. asserted
poll → expect → people
This comes despite Labour already raising the tax burden to a post-war high, with former chancellor Rachel Reeves hiking tax by £75billion at the previous two Budgets. asserted
Reeves → come → Budgets
There are fears of even more pain to come under Mr Healey, with a raid on banks, capital gains tax, and bookmakers all said to be under consideration. asserted
raid → be → consideration
The poll also found that 51 per cent of the public expect Government borrowing to increase after the Budget, while almost a third think Labour will increase spending on public services. asserted
Labour → find → services
Almost two thirds of Brits expect Chancellor John Healey (right, with Prime Minister Andy Burnham) to increase taxes to balance the books at the Budget Meanwhile 30 per cent of Britons think Mr Burnham will increase spending on benefits at the Budget - despite the ballooning welfare bill being forecast to hit £400billion by the end of the decade. asserted
bill → expect → decade
However 28 per cent of the public said they expect Labour to reduce welfare spending, the poll found. asserted
poll → say → spending
Alex Bogdan, research director at Ipsos, said: 'Our latest insights reveal an electorate that is acutely conscious of the tightrope Chancellor John Healey must walk when it comes to the Budget, as they themselves are facing economic anxieties and difficult trade-offs when we ask about their own household budgets.' asserted
we → say → budgets
She added: 'Public judgment can be swift, and with 65 per cent of the public now expecting tax rises, it is clear is that the upcoming Budget could serve as a critical test for the Government when it comes to public opinion and political fortunes for the year ahead.' uncertain
it → add → year
However a separate poll commissioned by one of Labour's union paymasters suggested that many people want to see higher taxes on the wealthy, banks and big businesses at next week's Budget. uncertain
people → commission → Budget
The research, commissioned by UNISON and carried out by YouGov, found 69 per cent of people support increasing taxes on the wealthiest to fund public services. asserted
cent → commission → services
Three quarters said that large corporations should pay a bigger share and 61 per cent back tax rises for banks. asserted
corporations → say → banks
The trade union said it is 'encouraging' that Mr Healey 'appears to be considering getting banks to pay more' following reports the Chancellor is set to increase taxes on the banking sector. asserted
Chancellor → say → sector
UNISON general secretary Andrea Egan said: 'Massive investment to rebuild public services and restore wages is urgently needed. ' asserted
investment → say → wages
It should be paid for by taxing the wealthiest. asserted
It → pay → wealthiest
These are common sense policies, backed by a large majority of the public.' asserted
These → back → public
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