From the upper floors of Millbank Tower, a skyscraper overlooking the River Thames in London, the U.K. Houses of Parliament are just a few hundred yards away.
asserted
Houses → overlook → Parliament
For decades, the building housed the headquarters of Britain's Conservative Party, one of the world's oldest political parties.
asserted
building → house → parties
Today, it is home to Reform UK, the right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage that is hoping to — and by some measures may already have — replace the Conservatives as the dominant force on the British right.
uncertain
that → lead → right
The change of occupants reflects a wider political upheaval sweeping some of Europe's biggest democracies.
asserted
change → reflect → democracies
In France, Marine Le Pen's right-wing National Rally has overtaken much of the traditional right ahead of the next year's presidential election.
asserted
Rally → overtake → election
In Germany, the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has
, challenging the center-right Christian Democrats.
asserted
Alternative → challenge → Democrats
While the histories and ambitions of the movements in all these countries differ, collectively, their rise is forcing many of Europe's established conservative parties to make a choice: either adopt some of the populist right's increasingly hard-line positions on immigration and national identity and cooperate with them, or risk losing voters to them altogether.
asserted
rise → differ → them
"The larger issue is the general great realignment of politics towards identity and nationalism being the main axis of debate, not the economy," Steve Baker, a former British Conservative government minister, told CBS News.
asserted
Baker → tell → News
The European Commission forecasts EU economic growth of just 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.5% in 2025.
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Commission → forecast → 2025
Baker, who pointed to President Trump's election in the United States as evidence of the same wider trend, believes the shift reflects a deeper frustration with political and economic institutions.
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shift → point → institutions
"The world does not work for far too many people, and almost no one is able to explain why," he said.
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he → work → people
"In that environment ... someone gets the blame."
asserted
someone → get → blame
Increasingly, he warned, that blame is being directed at ethnic and cultural minorities.
asserted
blame → warn → minorities
In Britain, the Conservative Party is fighting for its political survival after its 14-year hold on power was brought to an end with a crushing
.Reform UK, led by Farage, has capitalized on and encouraged anger over immigration, accusing successive Conservative governments of breaking promises to reduce immigrant arrivals as net migration reached a record of nearly a million in the party's final years in power.
asserted
migration → fight → power
A September poll found that 44% of Britons considered immigration one of the most important issues facing the nation.
asserted
immigration → find → nation
It has become a debate over British identity, ethnicity and who can call themselves English, with research finding support for ethnicity-based definitions of citizenship increasing.
asserted
support → become → citizenship
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, whose parents are Nigerian, has challenged those on the right who seek to define Englishness through ancestry alone, after London-born senior Reform UK politician Suella Braverman — who is of Indian descent — said she does not consider herself English, because "Englishness is an ethnicity.
asserted
Englishness → challenge → descent
"
"I don't want to live in a country run by people who ... debate whether my mixed-race children are English," Badenoch said at the Conservative Party conference in October.
asserted
Badenoch → want → October
"We must not let these people take us backwards."
asserted
people → let → us
Baker, who represented the Wycombe constituency in southeast England as Conservative Member of Parliament, told CBS News that voter concerns about immigration and demographic change cannot simply be dismissed.
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concerns → represent → immigration
He said in some local areas of his constituency, "the minority white population remaining will often express discontent that the area in which they live now looks radically different to when they moved in, and people do object to that," he said.
asserted
he → say → that
Census data does support his assertion that in some local areas of Wycombe, white residents have become minorities, though not in the constituency as a whole.
asserted
residents → support → whole
Baker added that he opposes the turn to ethnicity in Britain's current political debates.
asserted
he → add → debates
"None of us were talking about ethno-nationalism a few years ago," he said.
asserted
he → talk → nationalism
"I recoil in absolute horror to see this conversation going mainstream.
asserted
conversation → recoil → horror
After polling at around 28% in May, Reform U.K.'s support has recently fallen to 22% in some surveys as the party deals with internal controversies and .
uncertain
party → poll → controversies
Farage and Reform are also facing pressure from parties further to the right.
Restore Britain, led by former Reform lawmaker Rupert Lowe and publicly backed by billionaire Elon Musk, is targeting voters who believe Farage's party isn't pushing hard enough on immigration, Islam and national identity.
asserted
party → face → immigration
One poll put Restore's support as high as 9%, suggesting the battle for Britain's conservative hearts and minds is far from settled.
asserted
battle → put → hearts
Germany's political firewall under pressure
In Germany, the direction of right wing political movements is especially fraught given its history as the birthplace of the Nazi party.
asserted
direction → give → party
Since World War II, all of Germany's established parties have maintained what's become known as a political firewall against far-right extremists, refusing to enter governing coalitions with any party associated with nationalist, anti-democratic rhetoric or with links to extremist movements.
asserted
what → establish → movements
That firewall, or brandmauer in German, has stood against the AfD, which has been designated an extremist group by some regional authorities due to the associations and rhetoric of figures within the party.
asserted
which → stand → party
The AfD openly uses the term and espouses "remigration," a notion anti-hate groups say has been employed by extreme right-wing activists to advocate the expulsion of all immigrants and, in some cases, non-white European citizens.
asserted
groups → use → cases
The party insists its own definition is different, describing remigration as "all measures and incentives for the lawful and legally compliant return of foreigners who are required to leave the country to their homeland."
The AfD explicitly rejects the removal of German citizens on the basis of their ancestry, stating "all Germans are part of our nation, regardless of origin, ancestry, worldview, or religious affiliation.".
asserted
Germans → insist → origin
But German security authorities have documented links between AfD figures and extremist activists who advocate for a broader, ethnicity-defined concept of remigration.
asserted
who → document → remigration
The AfD's recent gains in local and regional elections is putting the firewall under pressure.
asserted
gains → put → pressure
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously led the state government, finished a distant second with 17.2% of the vote.
asserted
which → lead → vote
The AfD has built its strongest base in eastern Germany, seizing on lingering resentment over the unification of the country's Cold War-era East and West, economic inequality and a widespread distrust of political institutions.
asserted
AfD → build → institutions
But its support now extends well beyond those traditional strongholds.
asserted
support → extend → strongholds
The AfD's rise has also been fueled by dissatisfaction with Germany's handling of the 2015–2016 European migration crisis.
asserted
rise → fuel → crisis
The country, under former Chancellor Angela Merkel and amid broad sympathy for people being displaced by Syria's civil war, welcomed about 890,000 asylum seekers in 2015 alone, more than any other European nation.
asserted
country → displace → nation
…and 29 more, not listed.
The Aporia
