Alberta voters weigh future in Canada
EDMONTON, Alberta —
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voters → weigh → Canada
For decades, Alberta separatism remained on the political margins.
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separatism → remain → margins
Now, voters in the oil-rich Canadian province are deciding whether to take the first step toward a future referendum on independence.
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voters → decide → independence
The nonbinding referendum vote on Monday is the first time the province has put the question of separation to a public vote, in what Elections Alberta has described as the largest electoral event in the province's history.
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Alberta → put → history
Polls indicate that Alberta voters will overwhelmingly reject the option of beginning the legal process toward a referendum on separation.
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voters → indicate → separation
Pollsters generally estimate that about one in five Albertans support separation from Canada.
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Albertans → estimate → Canada
But the vote has brought the question of Alberta's place in the Canadian federation to the forefront of public debate.
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vote → bring → debate
The questions on the ballot
Essentially, this is a referendum about whether to hold another referendum on separation.
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this → hold → separation
The first nine address immigration, access to provincial services such as health care, education and other social services, and potential changes to the Canadian Constitution.
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nine → address → Constitution
Voters can answer yes or no to each of these questions.
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Voters → answer → questions
Question 10 offers voters two options.
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Question → offer → options
Option 1 asks whether Alberta should remain part of Canada, while option 2 asks whether the province should begin the legal process toward holding a referendum on separation.
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province → ask → separation
Western alienation and grievances against Ottawa date back decades, including to the administrations of Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, Justin Trudeau's father, during the 1970s and 1980s.
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alienation → date → 1970s
"I feel the Canadian system is broken.
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system → feel → ?
I know we aren't living in hell on earth.
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we → know → earth
But it's the trajectory we're worried about and where things are going," says Cory Morgan.
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Morgan → worry → ?
Morgan founded the Alberta Independence Party in 2000 and is also the founder of Pathway to Independence, a third-party advertising group that advocates for an independent Alberta.
"Even if we don't get over the line on Monday, I would hope that some people understand that something large is brewing here and if we don't get some change, it's going to continue to grow," Morgan told NPR.
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Morgan → found → NPR
Support for separation intensified among some Albertans following COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates.
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Support → intensify → lockdowns
Premier Danielle Smith said in May that it was "time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on.
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it → say → subject
The referendum campaign brought Prime Minister Mark Carney back to his hometown of Edmonton on Friday, where he urged Albertans to keep their province in Canada ahead of the vote.
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he → bring → vote
"A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and Canadians," Carney told the rally.
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Carney → lead → rally
Alberta is one of Canada's wealthiest provinces and is home to the world's fourth-largest known oil reserves.
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Alberta → know → reserves
The province contributes to Canada's equalization system, which provides federal funding to provinces with lower fiscal capacity.
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which → contribute → capacity
Some Albertans argue that the province should retain more of its revenue rather than see funds redistributed elsewhere in the country.
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funds → argue → country
"We want to make a new country where we can stop sending our money 1,000 kilometers away in Ottawa," says Jeremy Clive, a 23-year-old pilot and university student from rural Alberta.
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Clive → want → Alberta
Leaving the Canadian federation would not be as simple as holding a referendum.
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Leaving → leave → referendum
"It requires negotiating your way out," says Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta.
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Wesley → require → Alberta
"The Supreme Court has stated clearly that in order to leave, a province must negotiate with nine other provinces and the federal government to secure an amendment to the Constitution to remove themselves."
In 1995, Quebec held a referendum on sovereignty that narrowly rejected independence.
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that → state → independence
The vote helped set the stage for Canada's Clarity Act, which Parliament passed in 2000.
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Parliament → set → 2000
The act states that secession negotiations can begin only after a referendum question and its result meet standards of clarity.
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question → state → clarity
It does not specify a fixed percentage that constitutes a clear majority.
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that → specify → majority
Any separation would also require constitutional negotiations involving provincial and federal governments.
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separation → require → governments
"It's a bit ironic that separatists are a bit frustrated with the inability to change the constitution and they are using that as a pretext to leave, but, in order to leave, they need to change the same constitution with a much higher threshold for agreement," says Wesley.
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Wesley → frustrate → agreement
What happens if Albertans vote for a separation Referendum?
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Albertans → happen → Referendum
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said she will respect the result and begin the process of holding a legally binding referendum, subject to the applicable legal requirements.
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she → say → requirements
That would not happen immediately.
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That → happen → ?
The province would also need to consult with First Nations.
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province → need → Nations
Treaties between First Nations and the Crown predate Canadian Confederation, and First Nations groups have objected to the idea of an independent Alberta.
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groups → predate → Alberta
In May, an Alberta court ruled that a separatist petition seeking to trigger the referendum violated Indigenous rights because the province had failed to consult First Nations.
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province → rule → Nations
The province has appealed the decision.
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province → appeal → decision
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
