If Californians want to see the results of socialist policies like the “billionaire tax,” they need only look at the rioting in France — where the inspiration for the tax comes from.
asserted
inspiration → want → tax
The “billionaire tax,” known as Proposition 40, is a one-time 5% wealth tax that will hit California residents with assets valued at over $1 billion.
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that → know → billion
Emmanuel Saez, a French-born Berkeley economist, helped draft Proposition 40.
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Saez → bear → Proposition
Gabriel Zucman, another prominent French economist at Berkeley, has coauthored much of the research making the case for the tax, along with famed French economist Thomas Piketty, who wrote the 2014 bestseller “Capital in the 21st Century.”
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who → coauthore → Century
The book, which decries wealth inequality as the most important issue in society, encouraged left-wing politicians throughout the Western world to propose more wealth taxes.
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which → decry → taxes
Saez and Zucman have also influenced Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in their wealth tax proposals.
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Saez → influence → proposals
Before Californians take the advice of these French economists, they should seriously examine France’s experience with taxing wealth and financing an expansive welfare state.
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they → take → state
Over the past few weeks, French bond yields have jumped amid fiscal woes brought on by anemic economic growth, in part due to high taxes and regulation over decades.
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yields → jump → decades
Last year, French public spending reached 57.3% of gross domestic product.
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spending → reach → product
The government ran a deficit of 5.1% of GDP.
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government → run → GDP
By the end of June, public debt had reached 119% of national output.
asserted
debt → reach → output
France’s pension problems (not unlike California’s) illustrate the bind.
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problems → illustrate → bind
Pension spending reached €422 billion, or 14.1% of GDP, in 2025.
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spending → reach → 2025
In 2023, French leaders realized they were sitting on a ticking time bomb, and raised the retirement age.
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they → realize → age
Yet France suspended those increases until 2028.
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France → suspend → 2028
The political temptation is to preserve every benefit and find another taxpayer to finance it.
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temptation → preserve → it
Weak economic growth in France makes the task even harder.
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task → make → France
France has inventive people, but its rules can punish firms for expanding.
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rules → have → firms
These rules include labor regulations that raise costs for firms and reduce innovation.
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that → include → innovation
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France has already had a bad experience with wealth taxes, such as those French economists are proposing for California.
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economists → download → California
The first French wealth tax began in 1982, and was abolished in 1986.
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tax → begin → 1986
The problem: France discovered that wealthy taxpayers can move.
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taxpayers → discover → ?
France tried again, restoring a wealth tax in 1989.
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France → try → 1989
But in 2018, it narrowed the tax to real estate, rather than financial wealth.
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it → narrow → wealth
Saez and Zucman want to minimize the wealth of the richest individuals — just like Bernie Sanders believes billionaires should not exist.
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billionaires → want → individuals
That’s different than simply wanting to build a strong social safety net.
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That → ’ → net
If taxes can be used to fund well-designed assistance programs, then social welfare spending can improve opportunity and productivity.
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spending → use → opportunity
The question is whether a tax causes more harm than good.
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tax → cause → harm
A policy that drives away enough taxable income can leave the government with less money to redistribute.
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that → drive → money
California has already seen how very high income taxes change behavior.
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taxes → see → behavior
In a study of the state’s 2012 income-tax increases at the top end, one Hoover study by Josh Rauh and Ryan Shyu found that migration and changes in taxable income eroded 60.9% of the expected revenue gain within two years.
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migration → find → years
The tax still raised money.
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tax → raise → money
But the gap between the original projection and actual revenues should trouble anyone promising that California’s billionaires will simply pay up.
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billionaires → trouble → anyone
More directly, Rauh and his coauthors examined the proposed billionaire tax in a March 2026 study.
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Rauh → examine → study
They estimated that it would collect only about $40 billion, less than half the roughly $100 billion supporters forecast.
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supporters → estimate → billion
That’s thanks, in part, to the fact that billionaires have already started leaving to avoid the tax.
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billionaires → ’ → tax
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya says that $1 trillion in wealth has already left the state.
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trillion → say → state
Moreover, the Hoover study found that billionaires would take enough future income-tax payments with them to leave California $24.7 billion poorer.
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billionaires → find → California
These are forecasts, not collected tax receipts, but the possibility of losing revenue in the long run to raise revenue for a short while should give voters pause.
Saez and Zucman claim that the one-time tax would dwarf any lost income taxes in the future.
uncertain
tax → collect → future
Rich people deciding where to put their money must also consider whether another “one-time” tax will eventually follow.
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tax → decide → money
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
