- Published
The UK may see its first named storm of the autumn as forecasts show the potential for a deep area of low pressure to cross the UK later this week.
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area → publish → UK
A strengthening jet stream triggered by temperature contrasts across North America will cause turbulent conditions to develop.
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conditions → strengthen → America
All areas will experience rain at times, including those currently in drought, but amounts of rain will depend on the exact track of a stormy low pressure system later in the week.
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amounts → experience → week
After a chilly weekend, temperatures will generally remain slightly below average for mid-October.
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temperatures → remain → October
Quiet and warm autumn so far
Autumn has been relatively calm in many areas with little in the way of disruptive weather and rainfall has remained deficient across a huge swathe of England and Wales.
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rainfall → remain → England
Parts of Herefordshire have seen only a tenth of the rainfall typically expected by this stage of October, and the dry conditions persist for much of England.
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conditions → see → England
The Environment Agency recently declared severe drought for parts of southern England.
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Agency → declare → England
This month continues the warming trend we have seen so far this year, with mean temperatures - which is an average of maximum and minimum temperature - between 1 and 3 Celsius above normal for October.
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which → continue → October
Over the weekend, all four nations saw their lowest temperature of autumn so far.
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nations → see → autumn
Parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland dropped to minus 4 Celsius on Sunday morning with minus 2 Celsius recorded in northern England while Wales registered its first air frost of the season.
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Wales → drop → season
Strong jet stream to bring turbulent weather
After a frosty start in Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday it will turn more cloudy.
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it → bring → Monday
Overnight rain in England and Wales will largely die out and skies will brighten.
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skies → die → England
It should be a slightly milder to start the week.
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It → start → week
Expect cloudy skies on Tuesday with rain developing again in England, Wales and Scotland.
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rain → expect → England
Northern Ireland may be dry with some sunshine, before another band of rain arrives from the Atlantic by the end of the day.
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band → arrive → day
Bands of rain will move across the UK on Wednesday before the weather takes a turn for the worst in some areas at the end of the week.
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weather → move → week
Weather models suggest there is the potential for the jet stream to guide a deep area of low pressure across the UK by Friday.
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stream → suggest → Friday
In addition to heavy rain, gales or even severe gales will be wrapped around the deep low.
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gales → wrap → low
At the moment most computer models take the centre of the low pressure system across the south of the UK.
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models → take → UK
Such a track would leave Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland with quieter weather conditions.
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track → leave → conditions
However, some computer models show the deep low taking a more northerly track.
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low → show → track
If this happens, then gales and disruption could be expected more widely with impacts also in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
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gales → happen → Scotland
The uncertainty of the track means the forecast could change and it is important to keep across any potential Met Office weather warnings.
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it → mean → warnings
Will the UK see the first named storm of the season?
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UK → see → season
The UK storm season runs from September until August and it is not unusual to reach this stage of autumn without any named storms.
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it → run → storms
If the UK Met Office or Ireland's Met Éireann expect this week's low pressure system to bring significant impacts, that would lead them to issue weather warnings at an amber level or higher .
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that → expect → level
If the storm is then named, it will be called 'Storm Austen'.
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it → name → ?
It is possible that the low pressure system could follow an even more southerly track, meaning greater impacts in France and less across the UK, and the French weather service MeteoFrance could name it 'Storm Bruna'.
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service → follow → it
Developments at the end of the week will also dictate potential weather conditions into the following week, with some computer models showing further stormy weather at times, while others suggest quieter conditions under a developing high pressure system.
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others → dictate → system
The Aporia
