Lefty incumbent state Attorney General Letitia James’ lead over GOPer Saritha Komatireddy has shrunk to just 6 points after the underdog’s strong debate performance, a bombshell Republican internal poll shows.
asserted
poll → shrink → performance
James now leads Komatireddy by just 50.7% to 44.7% — half of the Democratic AG’s 13-point spread in a Siena University survey last month, according to the new poll conducted for the GOP candidate and obtained by The Post.
uncertain
James → lead → Post
About 4% of voters remain undecided, the latest survey found.
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survey → remain → voters
An analysis of the findings suggested that the Republican well-regarded former federal prosecutor’s Oct. 8 debate performance is largely responsible for shrinking the gap and provided her with momentum for her uphill battle in deep-blue New York during the home stretch.
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performance → suggest → stretch
“Letitia James sits at 50.7% with her negatives rising; Saritha Komatireddy is at 44.7% with a +15 net image,’’ wrote the GOP campaign’s pollster, OnMessage Inc., said in an Oct. 15 memo.
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pollster → sit → memo
“The final three weeks are about one thing: putting Saritha in front of the voters who have not seen her yet, because the ones who saw her debate are breaking to her by four to one.’’
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who → put → one
One in five likely voters surveyed said they watched the debate.
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they → survey → debate
Among those who watched, Komatireddy scores with them 81% to 19%. the poll showed.
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poll → watch → them
Among the voters who did not watch the debate, James bested her foe 59% to 36%.
“That gap is the whole campaign in one number: the undecided and soft voters who see Saritha make the case against James move to her, and the ones who have not seen it stay with the incumbent simply by default,” OnMessage said.
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OnMessage → watch → default
OnMessage surveyed 1,000 New York likely voters from October 12–14, with the poll having a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
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poll → survey → points
Registered independent voters have shifted to Komatireddy, the survey added. .
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survey → shift → Komatireddy
Now, James is 11 percentage points underwater with non-party-affiliated voters — 40% favorable to 51% unfavorable, with many saying “very unfavorable.”
Komatireddy now leads James among independents 49% to 43%.
”This is where a well-funded closing message makes the difference,” the GOP pollster said.
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pollster → say → difference
Komatireddy is winning areas where Republicans need to perform well.
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Republicans → win → areas
She leads James on Long Island 57% to 41% and the broader downstate suburbs 54% to 44% and upstate 50% to 44%.
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She → lead → Island
James is ahead because of her huge margin in New York City, where she bests Komatireddy 65% to 30%.
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she → best → Komatireddy
Komatireddy leads among men 53% to 43%, non-college voters 50% to 45%, and in terms of voters ages 46 to 55, 51% to 46%, according to the survey.
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Komatireddy → lead → survey
The memo did not specify James’s lead among women.
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memo → specify → women
The analysis noted that James only defeated underfunded Republican challenger Michael Henry by 9 percentage points when she won her second term in 2022.
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she → note → 2022
But Komatireddy will have to peel away some soft or persuadable James backers to pull off an upset, the pollster noted.
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pollster → have → upset
Polling analyst Nate Silver gave OnMessage an A rating as one of the most accurate pollsters during the 2024 election cycle.
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Silver → give → cycle
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Report → start → news
As a federal prosecutor in Brooklyn’s Eastern District of New York, Komatireddy handled some of its most high-profile cases involving international terrorism, cybercrime, narcotics trafficking, money laundering, and public corruption.
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Komatireddy → handle → terrorism
James has meanwhile filed numerous lawsuits to block controversial actions taken by the Trump administration, including for allegedly providing energy companies $1.4 billion in funds to cancel four critical offshore wind projects, and on other funding and policy issues.
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James → file → issues
“Saritha Komatireddy wouldn’t protect New Yorkers from fraudsters or the federal government, because they’re the ones propping up her candidacy,’’ a James campaign spokeswoman told The Post on Sunday when asked about the new poll.
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spokeswoman → protect → poll
“Trump endorsed her, and she’d repay him by looking the other way while he sows chaos in New York.”
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he → endorse → York
James also commissioned a sexual misconduct probe of ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo that triggered the Democrat’s resignation from office in 2021, even as he denied wrongdoing.
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he → commission → wrongdoing
“There has been a tremendous surge of interest in Saritha and her vision for New York since her overwhelming debate victory over Ms. James,’’ said Saritha for New York campaign manager Isabelle Daigle to The Post.
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Saritha → say → Post
“We’re seeing Democrats and independents joining with Republicans all across the state because of Saritha’s no-nonsense, apolitical approach to crime, homelessness, and fraud.
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Democrats → see → crime
“Our polling data is internal, but we’re happy to report that we have extraordinary momentum on our side going into the final two weeks of this election.
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we → ’re → election
We like where we are, while understanding that we will have to work twice as hard to earn the individual votes of New Yorkers of all backgrounds over the next 15 days.”
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we → like → days
The Aporia
