Standing in the doorway of his home near the corn and soybean fields that blanket this stretch of northeast Iowa, Dave Roethler doesn’t know what happened to the Donald Trump he supported during his first presidency.
asserted
he → stand → presidency
Trump did a “heck of a good job” back then, the 70-year-old school custodian said.
asserted
custodian → do → job
But now Roethler laments an economy in which “it’s the middle-class families that are taking the big hit” while Trump is “going to come out way ahead.”
asserted
Trump → lament → hit
He scoffs at the Republican president’s effort to win accolades such as the Nobel Peace Prize or a spot on Mount Rushmore.
asserted
He → scoff → Rushmore
“I think he has delusions of grandeur,” said Roethler, who plans to support Democrats next month in a state that has become a midterm battleground after Trump carried it by 13 percentage points two years ago.
asserted
Trump → think → points
The president will return to Iowa twice before the election to rally supporters.
asserted
president → return → supporters
Democrats face a steep challenge in winning rural communities like this one in Chickasaw County, a onetime party stronghold that swung sharply to the right in the Trump era as a broader realignment swept through much of the agricultural Midwest.
asserted
realignment → face → Midwest
But by simply narrowing their losses with appeals to voters such as Roethler, Democrats hope to become newly competitive from Iowa and Kansas to Nebraska and Ohio.
asserted
Democrats → narrow → Nebraska
Josh Turek, the Democrat running for a U.S. Senate seat in Iowa, said his party has “looked at this math problem incorrectly.”
asserted
party → run → problem
“You’ve got to go out there in these rural counties and trim the margins,” he said in an interview.
asserted
he → get → interview
Competitive races in states that usually aren’t
Republicans know they are on defense in these states.
asserted
they → know → states
Trump recently held a rally in Nebraska to boost U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts and will do the same for U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas on Monday.
asserted
Trump → hold → Monday
Republicans are pumping money into both states before the Nov. 3 election.
asserted
Republicans → pump → election
Few places represent the party’s challenge like Iowa, where Democrats are mounting spirited campaigns for governor, U.S. Senate and several U.S. House seats, including the 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses much of the state’s northeast and was considered reliably Republican until recently.
asserted
which → represent → northeast
With tariffs disrupting the agricultural economy and the war in Iran driving up gas prices — diesel surpasses $6 a gallon in Iowa — U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., swung through the district to ask voters to keep his fragile majority in place.
“This state is so important to us,” Johnson said in Cedar Falls.
asserted
Johnson → disrupt → Falls
A few houses away from Roethler, 69-year-old Bill Stonecypher voted for Trump in 2016, expecting him to apply his business acumen to governing.
asserted
him → vote → governing
Now Stonecypher plans to vote for every Democrat on the ballot for the first time in his life.
asserted
Stonecypher → plan → life
“I just know it’s a mess and it’s going to take years to fix,” he said.
asserted
he → know → years
Another neighbor, 70-year-old Deb Thorne backed Trump in 2024 but said he hasn’t followed through on his pledge to lower costs.
asserted
he → back → costs
“He lied to us,” she said.
asserted
she → lie → us
“I’m looking more at Democrats for everything.”
asserted
I → look → everything
How a candidate for governor is reaching beyond the party base
Democrats in Iowa are buoyed by Rob Sand, the state auditor whose campaign for governor is built on explicit overtures to independents and disaffected Republicans.
asserted
campaign → reach → independents
A few dozen people gathered recently in an American Legion hall in St. Ansgar, a square-mile town near the Minnesota border.
asserted
people → gather → border
Sand opened by describing a “pretty standard upbringing” centered on hunting, fishing and church.
asserted
Sand → open → hunting
He distanced himself from the fighting over cultural issues that has bogged down the national party.
asserted
that → distance → party
A few heads in the room nodded as he spoke of opposition to transgender girls playing on female sports teams.
asserted
he → nod → teams
“All that stuff was stuff that nobody was talking about back when we were in high school,” said Sand, whose opponent is Republican Zach Lahn, a political newcomer.
asserted
opponent → talk → school
The only reason he was a Democrat at all, Sand said, was that he had to pick a party to participate in primaries and he thought Democrats were stronger on issues like clean water and protecting public land.
asserted
Democrats → say → land
Jim Wherry, a Republican member of the Mitchell County Board of Supervisors, attended the event and said Sand “has a pretty good chance.”
asserted
Sand → attend → chance
“My big thing is sometimes things get focused on urban areas,” he said.
asserted
he → focus → areas
“So I like that he’s actually incorporating rural Iowa.”
asserted
he → like → Iowa
Sand, who has won two statewide elections as state auditor, said he’s received support from voters who also backed Trump.
asserted
who → win → Trump
“One of the things that people who vote for both of us find in common is that we say what we think and we’re dissatisfied with the political system,” he said.
asserted
he → vote → system
Democrats are boosting rural investments
Democrats are stepping up their rural investments.
asserted
Democrats → boost → investments
The Democratic Governors Association has directed $10 million each to campaigns in Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Wisconsin and could spend elsewhere ahead of the election.
uncertain
Association → direct → election
“What I see is a map that has grown and grown and grown and that is good for Democrats,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who leads the DGA, said in an interview.
asserted
who → see → interview
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is focused on retaking the House, launched a rural engagement program for the first time this election cycle, including polling, paid media and staff.
asserted
which → focus → polling
The group has made a six-figure investment in television advertising in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District alone.
asserted
group → make → District
Democratic candidate Lindsay James, a chaplain who often speaks of her faith to connect with voters, could see a boost because the district includes Sand’s hometown of Decorah.
uncertain
district → speak → Decorah
She’s competing against Republican Joe Mitchell, a former state representative who worked in the Trump administration.
asserted
who → compete → administration
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
