They employ approximately half of the country’s workers and generate about half of the country’s GDP.
asserted
They → employ → GDP
They’re an important voting block.
asserted
They → ’re → ?
So how are they feeling about the economy as we head into November’s midterm elections?
asserted
we → feel → elections
Overall, economic sentiment for Donald Trump is poor but small business – admittedly a diverse demographic that’s hard to poll – seems fairly confident.
asserted
that → ’ → Trump
A number of recently published surveys and reports can help understand their mood.
asserted
number → publish → mood
This week, the National Federation of Independent Businesses said that its Small Business Optimism Index fell to just below its long-term average, while uncertainty rose slightly.
asserted
uncertainty → say → average
Expansion plans weakened, though 17% still plan to add jobs during the next three months.
asserted
% → weaken → months
However, small-business confidence improved significantly in the third quarter, according to the recently published Justworks/US Chamber Small Business Index.
uncertain
confidence → improve → Index
Some 72% of the 750 small businesses surveyed say they are comfortable with their current cash flow, but only 27% believe the US economy is in good health.
asserted
economy → survey → health
Inflation remains the biggest problem, cited by 54% of owners.
asserted
Inflation → remain → owners
HR platform Gusto estimated that small businesses added 28,000 jobs in September, making it the eighth consecutive month of employment gains following a decline in January.
asserted
it → estimate → January
According to the company’s data, hiring accelerated from August’s revised gain of 18,500 jobs and growth was broad across industries, regions and company sizes, with healthcare and social assistance among the strongest sectors.
uncertain
growth → accord → sectors
Particularly notable is that some of the smallest employers continue to participate in the expansion, rather than job growth being concentrated solely among larger companies.
asserted
growth → continue → companies
In its latest Small Business Employment Watch report, Paychex, another large HR and payroll processing service (and a client of my company), said that hiring in September essentially matched its 2026 year-to-date average with overall employment among companies with fewer than 50 employees appearing “stable”.
asserted
employees → say → companies
ADP, the country’s largest HR and payroll processing service, reported that US private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, with hiring accelerating for the first time since May following three months of slowing growth.
uncertain
hiring → report → growth
Education and healthcare and leisure and hospitality led the gains, while financial activities and professional and business services were weaker.
asserted
activities → lead → gains
Importantly for small businesses, establishments employing one to 19 workers added 18,000 jobs.
asserted
establishments → employ → jobs
According to ADP, private-sector employers have not shifted into recession mode and although hiring has cooled from earlier periods, businesses are still adding employees.
uncertain
businesses → accord → employees
Intuit painted a slightly different jobs picture.
asserted
Intuit → paint → picture
Its Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index, which is based on data it gathers from its millions of QuickBooks customers, found that employment at US businesses with one to nine employees fell by 7,000 jobs in September and that jobs declined across most sectors and regions.
asserted
jobs → base → sectors
Revenues remain solid.
asserted
Revenues → remain → ?
Intuit’s QuickBooks data shows that revenues moved sharply up this past month as inflation-adjusted average monthly revenue increased 1.68% and growth occurring in 11 of 12 industries, every region and 19 of 20 states.
asserted
growth → show → industries
Fiserv, a payment-processing service, said that its September data showed improving sales among US small businesses.
asserted
data → process → businesses
However, the company reports that consumer behavior remains selective and that traffic has been weaker even as customers spend more when they do shop.
asserted
they → report → more
Economic growth continued in the third quarter.
asserted
growth → continue → quarter
Overall, US manufacturing remained firmly in expansion territory in September.
asserted
manufacturing → remain → September
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index marked its ninth consecutive month of growth after years of contraction.
asserted
Index → mark → contraction
Despite rising prices, new orders, production and employment all remained expansionary and order backlogs increased.
asserted
backlogs → rise → prices
As usual, the ISM reported yet another month of expansion in the service sector (it’s been 27 consecutive months) with new orders remaining “particularly strong”.
asserted
orders → report → sector
The Wall Street Journal and other media sources reported recently that first-quarter annualized growth was revised to 2.5% from 2.1%, and second-quarter growth was increased to 2.2% from 1.5%, which, its editors argued, shows that the “US economy is performing considerably better than pessimistic headlines imply”.
Philadelphia lags in business creation.
asserted
Philadelphia → report → creation
My business is based in Philadelphia, a heavily Democratic area in a swing state.
asserted
business → base → state
My clients appear to mostly be doing well so far this year but, like most small businesses around the country, continue to struggle navigating higher costs and a tight labor market.
asserted
clients → appear → costs
This anecdotal evidence is somewhat supported by a May survey by WSFS Bank that found “surprisingly strong confidence among Philadelphia-area businesses” despite inflation and economic uncertainty.
uncertain
that → support → inflation
In that study, 92% of owners and business decision-makers say their companies are meeting or exceeding expectations, while 66% anticipate growth during the next year.
asserted
% → say → year
Philadelphia, however, has its own unique problems, particularly adding fewer small businesses per capita than other large cities.
asserted
Philadelphia → have → cities
A recent study from Pew Research found that the number of Black-, Hispanic- and female-owned small businesses increased 39% between 2012 and 2022, showing meaningful entrepreneurial growth, but barriers including access to capital, regulatory requirements, taxes, commercial space and the difficulty of scaling companies continued to restrain business formation in the city.
The Democratic strategist James Carville once said that when it comes to electing candidates, “it’s the economy, stupid”.
asserted
it → find → candidates
The good news for the Republicans is that the economy is resilient and the overall mood of the country’s small businesses is generally optimistic, despite the many challenges they face.
asserted
they → face → challenges
But will that overcome the president’s low approval ratings?
asserted
that → overcome → ratings
The Aporia
