Despite a blue tide, this Democratic governor is fighting to survive
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governor → fight → tide
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- In Oregon, a progressive bastion, widespread voter discontent puts incumbent Tina Kotek on the defensive against Republican Christine Drazan.
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discontent → click → Drazan
- Though favored to win, Kotek’s struggle shows the perils of incumbency this angry election season.
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struggle → favor → incumbency
With just over two weeks left until election day, Democrats can barely contain their glee.
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Democrats → leave → glee
Control of the House seems about to fall into their eager laps.
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Control → seem → laps
Senate races in states that are normally cardinal red — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas among them — have grown fiercely competitive.
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that → grow → them
And, for the first time since 2010, a Democrat may soon be sitting in the governor’s office in more than half the 50 states.
uncertain
Democrat → sit → states
As recently as 2017, just 16 of them had Democratic governors — the lowest number in nearly a century.
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16 → have → century
The party owes a big thank you to President Trump, whose political standing seems to be sinking, like a depth charge, lower by the day.
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standing → owe → day
The only question is how much damage he inflicts on fellow Republicans.
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he → inflict → Republicans
There are, however, exceptions to every political trend, outliers in every election, a contest that zigs when races just about everywhere else are zagging.
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races → be → election
Oregon, that crunchy and damp citadel of Left Coast liberalism, hasn’t elected a Republican governor since President Reagan was midway through his first term.
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Reagan → elect → term
In 2024, Kamala Harris walloped Donald Trump by more than 14 percentage points, extending a decades-long Democratic presidential winning streak.
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Harris → wallop → streak
And yet the state’s Democratic governor, Tina Kotek, is on the defensive as she fights for a second term in November, burdened by a dismal approval rating and a sense that things have been pretty lousy in Oregon under her leadership.
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things → fight → leadership
Two of the country’s top political prognosticators see Democrats likely seizing the House and possibly the Senate.
uncertain
Democrats → see → House
The guardrails Republicans were counting on to stem their losses don’t seem to be holding.
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Republicans → count → losses
The state “hasn’t thrived in the last decade, and certainly hasn’t thrived since COVID, the way other states have,” said John Horvick, one of Oregon’s leading independent pollsters.
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Horvick → thrive → pollsters
Kotek, a former speaker of the state House — and a highly effective lawmaker in that role — made some very concrete promises.
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Kotek → make → promises
“She was going to build 36,000 new homes.
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She → go → homes
She was going to improve our educational outcomes and make improvements to behavioral health in the state,” Horvick said.
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Horvick → go → state
“Voters give her poor marks on all those.”
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Voters → give → those
Most notably, perhaps, the epidemic of homelessness — which has curdled Portland’s hipster image and agitated Oregonians more than just about any issue in recent years — hasn’t abated under Kotek, despite a promise to make the problem her top priority.
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problem → curdle → promise
The Democrat still remains the favorite to win reelection.
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Democrat → remain → reelection
Oregon’s gubernatorial races tend to be closer than presidential contests and voters have been shown a reluctance to heave their governor from office, even when they tell pollsters they’re not happy with the incumbent or the state of their state.
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they → tend → state
“We watch this movie every four years in Oregon, where it looks really, really close and then, in the end, the Democrat wins,” said Kari Chisholm, a political strategist in Portland.
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Chisholm → watch → Portland
That may happen again.
uncertain
That → happen → ?
But Kotek’s travails show the perils of incumbency this angry election season, even for a Democratic swimming with a blue tide.
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travails → show → tide
Thirty-six states are electing governors in November.
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states → elect → November
Most of the contests lean toward one party or the other, like in California, where Democrat Xavier Becerra appears a shoo-in to replace Gavin Newsom.
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Becerra → lean → Newsom
But a dozen races are at least somewhat competitive, including toss-ups in Georgia, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin.
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races → include → Georgia
All of the hardest-fought contests are in states that Trump carried in 2024 — several by double-digits — with Oregon being the lone exception.
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Oregon → fight → digits
Kotek, who’s been rated one of the least popular governors in America, is facing a rematch against Christine Drazan, a former GOP state House leader who now serves in the state Senate.
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who → rat → Senate
In 2022, she lost narrowly lost to Kotek, 47% to 44%, in a three-way contest.
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she → lose → contest
Unlike four years ago, Kotek has a gubernatorial record to defend and the case Drazan makes against her is succinct.
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Drazan → have → her
“Tina Kotek told Oregonians that she would solve the problems and challenges facing our state,” Drazan said in the candidates’ first debate this month.
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Drazan → tell → debate
In a recent Fox News interview, Drazan elaborated.
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Drazan → elaborate → interview
“We have record high businesses that have gone out of business, bankruptcies, businesses that are leaving, family bankruptcies are at an all-time high,” Drazan said, exaggerating some.
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Drazan → have → some
It’s not a national issue, it’s here at home.”
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it → ’ → home
Suggesting the state’s problems are indigenous is an obvious effort to lay responsibility on Kotek and absolve Trump, whose policies — ruinous tariffs, a reckless war, budget cuts — have slashed healthcare benefits, stoked inflation and driven fuel prices to all-time highs.
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policies → suggest → highs
The four-seat gain Democrats need to win control once seemed all but out of reach.
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Democrats → need → reach
…and 23 more, not listed.
The Aporia
