While marking Israel’s 75th anniversary, Ursula von der Leyen offered solidarity.
asserted
Leyen → mark → solidarity
“Europe and Israel are bound to be friends and allies,” the European Commission president said on April 23, 2023.
asserted
president → bind → April
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That friendship reached beyond diplomacy.
asserted
friendship → move → diplomacy
Israel played international football in Europe, competed in Eurovision and shared intelligence with European governments.
asserted
Israel → play → governments
Its weapons industry was woven into European production lines.
asserted
industry → weave → lines
Those ties still exist, but have since become battlegrounds after Israel’s systematic destruction of Gaza, which has killed at least 74,000 Palestinians.
asserted
which → exist → Palestinians
European countries have withdrawn from Eurovision over Israel’s participation.
asserted
countries → withdraw → participation
European footballers have refused to play the Israeli team.
asserted
footballers → refuse → team
Some declarations of friendship have been recast as condemnation.
asserted
declarations → recast → condemnation
Ireland and Spain have long led criticism of Israel’s oppression of Palestinians.
asserted
Ireland → lead → Palestinians
At the recent UN General Assembly, Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheal Martin said Israel’s actions in Gaza “will shame the world”, while Spain’s Pedro Sanchez spoke of “condemning unequivocally the genocide that Netanyahu continues to perpetrate in Gaza”.
asserted
Netanyahu → say → Gaza
Recently, in a sign of how much has changed in three years, Britain, whose Balfour Declaration helped lay the foundations for Israel’s creation, imposed a ban on goods from illegal settlements, while its foreign secretary accused Israeli settlers of ethnic cleansing.
asserted
secretary → change → cleansing
On Saturday, a group of settlers attacked European diplomats and officials from Belgium, France and Poland who were visiting Palestinian olive harvesters near the village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank.
asserted
who → attack → Bank
The assault, which came a day after settlers attacked a United States journalist north of Ramallah, drew widespread international condemnation.
asserted
settlers → come → condemnation
Scarred relations between Europe and Israel may never fully repair, experts said as Israel heads to an election on October 27 that is too close to call.
uncertain
that → repair → October
Will the result affect Europe-Israel ties?
asserted
result → affect → ties
Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, said if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returns with the far right, “certain things will become irreversible.
asserted
things → say → right
The damage caused by this government is deep”.
asserted
damage → cause → government
Nicola Perugini, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Edinburgh, warned that the re-election of the leader, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), would see Gaza’s population continue to struggle under “unliveable” conditions.
asserted
population → warn → conditions
A Netanyahu coalition with more liberal parties might slow settlement expansion.
uncertain
coalition → slow → expansion
But having a premier wanted by the ICC at the helm would likely lead to a continued deterioration of the Israel-Europe relationship.
asserted
premier → have → relationship
Replacing Netanyahu would not necessarily mean a break with the policies driving European criticism, experts said.
asserted
experts → replace → criticism
For instance, Gadi Eisenkot, former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party, viewed as Netanyahu’s main challenger, has opposed Palestinian statehood.
asserted
Eisenkot → view → statehood
An annual public opinion survey by Israel’s Mitvim Institute last year showed that 67 percent of Israelis regarded the EU more as an adversary, compared with 14 percent who saw it as a friend.
asserted
who → show → friend
Mekelberg sees potential for a different relationship under a more liberal government.
asserted
Mekelberg → see → government
“The conversation with Europe would be more reasonable and rational,” he said, but warned that the picture would not change overnight.
asserted
picture → say → Europe
More humanitarian aid could be delivered to Palestinians and the rate of settlement expansion could slow, analysts said.
uncertain
analysts → deliver → expansion
The E1 settlement plan could be abandoned.
uncertain
plan → abandon → ?
But Julie M Norman, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said that may not be enough for European governments to make amends.
uncertain
governments → say → amends
Rather, Europe would look for concrete moves towards Palestinian statehood and ending the occupation.
asserted
Europe → look → occupation
“But so far, we’re not seeing that under the current government and probably not under the next,” she said.
asserted
she → see → next
‘Ruling elite in several countries trying to align with the public’
asserted
elite → rule → public
At the beginning of Israel’s war on Gaza, Western leaders supported Israel’s campaign.
asserted
leaders → support → campaign
But sustained pressure from groups demanding action to stop the onslaught in Gaza and violence in the occupied West Bank – from civil rights organisations, international courts, trade unions and professional bodies to millions of protesters across the world – forced governments to act, analysts said.
asserted
analysts → demand → governments
“Now the ruling elite in several countries is trying to align itself with the public,” Neve Gordon, an Israeli professor of human rights law at Queen Mary University in London, told Al Jazeera, adding that the pro-Palestine movement had changed the “common sense” position of governments.
asserted
movement → rule → governments
Pew Research Center polling in the UK found that the proportion viewing Israel unfavourably rose from 61 to 69 percent between spring 2025 and spring this year, from 66 to 75 percent in Italy and from 64 to 73 percent in Germany, one of its strongest allies.
asserted
proportion → find → allies
Nathalie Tocci, an Italian political scientist, linked that pressure to recognition of Palestinian statehood, moves towards suspending the EU-Israel association agreement and bans on settlement imports.
asserted
Tocci → link → imports
“If anything has had any impact on European policy towards Israel, it is precisely the wave of protests over the last few years,” she said.
asserted
she → have → years
Norman at Chatham House said European states have shifted from targeted measures, such as sanctioning far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, towards “broader structures, in terms of scrutiny of the Israeli state itself”.
asserted
states → say → state
But support for Israel persists in parts of Europe, noted Oxford University professor Janina Dill.
asserted
Dill → persist → Europe
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
