Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta has declared that his country will sign the first agreements for the long-stalled Greater Sunrise gas project early next year, as the South-East Asian country pushes on with the hugely ambitious and contentious development.
asserted
country → declare → development
But there is still widespread scepticism in the sector about the commercial viability of Timor-Leste's plan to pipe gas from the Greater Sunrise fields to the country's south coast, where the government hopes to develop a multi-billion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant and domestic gas facility.
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government → be → plant
Timor-Leste says that will generate badly needed jobs and economic activity in the country, but the project has been beset with delays, disagreements and doubts.
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project → say → delays
In November last year the Australian energy giant Woodside Energy, which holds a stake in the venture along with Timor-Leste's state-owned oil and gas company, struck an agreement to "mature and progress" the plan.
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which → hold → plan
And Mr Ramos-Horta told the ABC in Sydney that Greater Sunrise was now "finally happening" after "years and years of procrastination [and] deadlock".
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Sunrise → tell → procrastination
"I was told by Prime Minister Xanana [Gusmao] that he's confident that within the next few months they will sign the agreement, [that] we will finalise the three main documents," he said.
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he → tell → documents
Those three documents will help Australia, Timor-Leste and Woodside establish the regulatory and fiscal settings needed for the exploration and development of resources in Greater Sunrise.
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Australia → help → Sunrise
Mr Ramos-Horta's government previously said the parties reached technical agreement in Canberra on three documents: the Petroleum Mining Code, Production Sharing Contract and fiscal regime.
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parties → say → documents
But analysts, as well as government and industry sources, all caution that there is still no guarantee that Timor-Leste and Woodside will strike a commercial agreement on a development plan, and that any final investment decision is likely years away.
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decision → caution → plan
Woodside and Timor-Leste's government said last year that the first LNG from Greater Sunrise may be produced "as early as 2032-2035, subject to concept selection and investment decisions".
uncertain
LNG → say → decisions
Last month, Timor's petroleum minister pushed the production start date back to 2034-2035, saying the country hoped for a final investment decision by 2029.
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country → push → 2029
Mr Ramos-Horta said the regulatory agreements should be signed early next year after being checked and approved by both governments and Woodside.
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agreements → say → governments
He struck a bullish tone, suggesting it was a significant moment for the project.
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it → strike → project
"We cannot wait much longer.
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We → wait → ?
We have to do it now," he said.
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he → have → it
The issue is urgent for Timor-Leste because it remains heavily reliant on past oil and natural gas revenues invested in its Petroleum Fund.
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it → remain → Fund
The lucrative Bayu-Undan gas field, which pumped billions of dollars into the fund over the last two decades, permanently ceased production last year.
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which → pump → production
And while the fund now contains $26 billion, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last year that it could be depleted by 2038 if Timor-Leste continues to rely on it to finance fiscal deficits without replenishing it.
uncertain
Leste → contain → it
Mr Ramos-Horta warned back in 2022 that Timor-Leste would run off a "financial cliff" if it could not get Greater Sunrise up and running within a decade.
uncertain
it → warn → decade
Timor-Leste has also warned the Australian government that it would turn to Chinese investors to make the project a reality if it cannot secure agreement from Woodside, although analysts have previously questioned whether they would have the appetite.
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they → warn → appetite
In the meantime, the airport built in anticipation of the project lies idle, while roads and other infrastructure constructed for the processing hub are beginning to crumble.
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roads → build → hub
But Mr Ramos-Horta said he was confident that Woodside was "determined to follow through" with the project to pipe gas to Timor-Leste.
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Woodside → say → Leste
"It's beneficial to Woodside, beneficial to Australia, beneficial to Timor-Leste," he said.
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he → say → Leste
The Aporia