In November 2022, a peace agreement put an end to two years of brutal conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.
asserted
agreement → put → region
Almost four years later, the conflict has resurfaced, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) having formed an alliance with other armed opposition factions, and the Ethiopian government forces managing to reclaim control of Mekelle, the capital of the region.
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forces → resurface → region
At the same time, the conflict has raised the threat of direct military confrontation between Ethiopia and its neighbour, Eritrea.
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conflict → raise → Ethiopia
Ethiopian forces, along with their allies, have marched into several towns in the Tigray region towards the Eritrean border.
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forces → march → border
Meanwhile, reports on Eritrean forces being present in Ethiopia’s territory are still disputed, and there are no diplomatic relations left between the two countries anymore.
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forces → dispute → countries
The reasons for this conflict go back to the political transformation in Ethiopia and the old rivalry between the regions.
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reasons → go → regions
For almost three decades, the TPLF dominated the ruling coalition of Ethiopia.
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TPLF → dominate → Ethiopia
That ended in 2018, when Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister.
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Ahmed → end → 2018
He made peace with Eritrea’s President, Isaias Afwerki, closing the stand-off left by the 1998–2000 border war, and won the Nobel Peace Prize for it.
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He → make → it
The government started centralising political powers, and at the same time, the relationship between the government and the TPLF worsened.
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relationship → start → government
The TPLF, with a strong influence in Tigray, perceived the government as a danger to the region’s sovereignty and refused to join the coalition.
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TPLF → perceive → coalition
Tension between the TPLF and the government increased in 2020 as the TPLF conducted regional elections in Tigray despite the decision by the federal government to postpone national elections due to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.
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TPLF → increase → pandemic
The former claimed that the federal government deliberately postponed conducting the elections and that the pandemic was not the only reason for it.
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pandemic → claim → it
The Tigray regional government claimed that their elections were not unconstitutional while Addis Ababa declared them illegal, further deepening the dispute.
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them → claim → dispute
The situation worsened in November 2020 when federal forces deployed military to fight in Tigray.
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forces → worsen → Tigray
Troops from the Ethiopian government, Amhara forces, and Eritrea fought against the TPLF and its military wing, TDF, or Tigray Defence Forces.
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Troops → fight → TPLF
During the war, many people were internally displaced and suffered food shortages.
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people → displace → shortages
Cases of mass killings and rapes were also reported.
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Cases → report → killings
Although there are many estimates, the total number of casualties are not certain.
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number → be → casualties
There are reports from Ghent University that the war led to about 5,00,000 deaths, including those due to starvation and the disruption of health care services.
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war → be → services
A cessation-of-hostilities agreement that was signed in Pretoria, South Africa, brokered by the African Union (AU) in November 2022 put an end to the large-scale violence.
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that → sign → violence
The agreement covered such items as disarmament, restoration of the government’s control over the area, provision of humanitarian assistance, and repatriation of the displaced people.
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agreement → cover → people
However, Eritrea, which fought together with Ethiopia, did not sign the agreement, which later mattered a great deal.
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which → fight → agreement
The deal also left hard questions open like who disarms Tigrayan forces, who controls territory held by Amhara militias, and where Tigray fits in the federal system.
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Tigray → leave → system
The demobilisation and re-integration of the Tigrayan forces was among other issues that still needed addressing.
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that → need → issues
Then the TPLF began to fracture.
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TPLF → begin → ?
Why has the fighting resumed?
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fighting → resume → ?
The collapse of the peace process went hand in hand with deep divisions emerging in the TPLF ranks.
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divisions → go → ranks
Leadership disagreements in the TPLF emerged regarding the party’s relations with the federal government and the Pretoria agreement.
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disagreements → emerge → government
In March 2025, Getachew Reda, who headed the transitional administration in the region, was ousted because of differences with the hardline elements in the party.
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who → head → party
By 2026, the faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael took control of the political machine in the region.
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faction → lead → region
The relations between the Tigray and the federal government deteriorated into a military conflict because of political disputes.
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relations → deteriorate → disputes
On September 20, seven armed groups announced an alliance with a stated aim of overthrowing Mr. Abiy’s government and installing a transitional administration.
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groups → announce → administration
Three days later the TPLF-led alliance attacked government forces across Tigray, Amhara and Afar.
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alliance → lead → Tigray
The rebels took Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, and its airport.
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rebels → take → Mekelle
They did not hold it long.
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They → hold → it
The army leaned on drones and airpower, and a pro-government Tigrayan militia, the Tigray Peace Force, fought alongside it.
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militia → lean → it
The rebels announced their withdrawal from Mekelle on October 3, and government-allied forces moved in.
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forces → announce → October
The TPLF said its regional government would operate from somewhere else.
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government → say → ?
What is happening now?
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What → happen → ?
…and 37 more, not listed.
The Aporia
