The Ohioan has voted for Trump in the past, but at this midterm election, he’s not going to vote at all.
asserted
he → vote → election
“I believe that votes are a way to keep us at bay,” he says.
asserted
he → believe → bay
“We have no say in the world – it’s already predetermined.
asserted
it → have → world
Anyone that says otherwise is just ignorant to the things, the structuring of everything.”
asserted
that → say → everything
The 31-year-old is sitting at the bar of the Mason Jar Steakhouse in Wapakoneta, a small town in west-central Ohio, drinking a Coors Light and pulling tabs – a cardboard lottery game popular in this region.
asserted
old → sit → region
He wins $US4 ($5.70).
asserted
He → win → US4
In many ways, Eversman is a typical Trump Republican – male, white, rural area of the Midwest, labourer (he makes laundry detergent at a nearby factory), and inclined towards a conspiratorial view of politics.
asserted
he → make → politics
But he doesn’t like the “magical war with Iran”, especially the impact it’s having on the price of fuel.
asserted
it → like → fuel
Eversman owns a car, a utility, a dump truck and a motorhome, most of which run on diesel.
asserted
most → own → diesel
“We had nothing to do with [Iran] prior,” he says.
asserted
he → have → Iran
“Now we have everything to do with it.
asserted
we → have → it
The cost of everything has gone up.
asserted
cost → go → everything
We’re just continuing these proxy wars and paying for them, yet the ramifications are on us directly.
asserted
ramifications → continue → us
These are the voters – past supporters who have drifted or may not bother voting this year – whom Trump wants to reach with his whistle-stop campaign tour.
uncertain
Trump → drift → tour
It has taken him to Ohio twice in nine days, along with other red states including Texas, Alabama, Montana, Oklahoma and Alaska.
asserted
It → take → Texas
The US president will soon visit Georgia, Kentucky and Wichita in Kansas and is leaving Washington almost every day for rallies where he begs conservatives to “pretend I’m on the ballot” and show up to vote.
asserted
I → visit → ballot
Democrats love it – Trump’s approval ratings are at record lows, so they are happy for Republicans to turn the midterms into a referendum on him.
asserted
Republicans → love → him
But that doesn’t make it a foolish strategy: in a country where voting is optional, and most people can’t stand the other side, turning out to vote is the biggest hurdle.
asserted
turning → make → side
Tens of millions more Americans voted in the 2024 presidential election than in the 2022 midterms.
asserted
Americans → vote → midterms
Finding them and getting them to vote again is the key, says Republican strategist Matt Terrill.
asserted
Terrill → find → them
“[Trump] has got that deep following within the MAGA movement, the Republican base, and among many independent, undecided voters who perhaps voted for him in 2024,” he says.
asserted
he → get → 2024
One of its Senate seats is up for re-election: the spot occupied by Jon Husted, who replaced JD Vance when Trump tapped him to be vice president.
asserted
Trump → occupy → him
The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up against Democrat Sherrod Brown, who was a senator for Ohio from 2007 to 2025.
asserted
who → rat → 2025
It is one of several toss-up seats that could lead to the Republicans losing control of the Senate to the Democrats.
uncertain
Republicans → toss → Democrats
That includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine and even Texas, which has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988.
asserted
which → include → 1988
Democrats need a net gain of four to win control.
asserted
Democrats → need → control
Staggering amounts of money are being spent on the Ohio Senate race alone – more than $US400 million ($577 million) so far.
asserted
amounts → spend → race
Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist from North Carolina, says it could be the closest of all the Senate races and will be up there with Texas for the most expensive.
uncertain
it → say → expensive
Rust-belt Ohio used to be a battleground state, but has moved to the right with the advent of Trump, who won it three times – with a higher margin each time (11 percentage points over Kamala Harris in 2024).
asserted
who → use → 2024
“It’s safe to say Ohio is generally a centre-right state,” says Greg Lawson, senior research fellow at the Buckeye Institute, a conservative Ohio think tank.
asserted
Lawson → ’ → Institute
“When you get outside a lot of urban and suburban areas, what you’ll find is that it’s pretty culturally conservative, but it’s a little more fiscally moderate – very blue collar, very pro labour union.
asserted
it → get → what
It’s an interesting mix.”
asserted
It → ’ → ?
Lawson acknowledges a shift to the Democrats is coming, not only because the midterms almost always shift against the party in the White House, but due to pervasive economic headwinds: inflation and high petrol prices caused by the war in Iran.
asserted
midterms → acknowledge → Iran
Ohio’s outgoing Republican governor, Mike DeWine, this month suspended the state’s motor fuel tax for 90 days.
asserted
governor → suspend → days
“Gas is a big deal,” Lawson says.
asserted
Lawson → say → ?
“People are having a hard time dealing with the cost of groceries, dealing with property tax spikes.
asserted
People → have → spikes
Some of that is maybe not as bad today as it was last year and the year before that, but it is the cumulative effect that’s really hurting people.”
asserted
that → hurt → people
Lawson is speaking to this masthead after a Columbus Metropolitan Club event with the Republican candidate for Ohio governor, Vivek Ramaswamy, who previously ran for president.
asserted
who → speak → president
Ramaswamy tells the crowd the cost of living is a major concern across the state – “there’s no denying it” – and is promising to roll back property taxes to pre-COVID levels.
But it is notable that on key issues – affordability and the proliferation of AI data centres – the message coming from Trump and his administration is often at odds with what Republicans are saying on the ground.
asserted
Republicans → tell → ground
Trump is telling voters that the economy has never been better and that prices of everyday goods are coming down, which is untrue.
asserted
which → tell → goods
…and 67 more, not listed.
The Aporia
