PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ALREADY laying the predicate for interfering with the polls this November, from rhetorical and regulatory attacks on voting by mail to frenetic searches by his administration for non-citizens on state voter rolls, most recently in Nevada and California.
asserted
TRUMP → lay → Nevada
One of the most threatening possibilities is that the Department of Homeland Security will deploy ICE or other armed agents to polling locations.
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Department → deploy → locations
The Trump administration denies planning such a move, but that hasn’t stopped opposition groups from gaming out scenarios and making contingency plans.
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that → deny → plans
In late May, staff from the offices of Democratic state attorneys general and secretaries of state gathered in Milwaukee to wargame the threat of federal intrusion in state elections, including ICE agents showing up at the polls, according to one attendee.
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agents → gather → attendee
Then in August, Hillary Clinton invited three dozen legal experts, elected officials, labor leaders, and cable news figures to Washington, D.C. to think through possible electoral chicanery by the administration and develop methods to ensure election integrity.
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Clinton → invite → integrity
Beyond these tabletop exercises, pro-democracy activists have organized massive projects to train thousands of “democracy protectors” to observe polling places.
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activists → organize → places
In mid-September, state Democratic parties announced the New Battlefield Project to recruit and train poll watchers.
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parties → announce → watchers
Likewise, Vote Safe, a campaign by veteran civil rights and advocacy organizations, is working to deploy hundreds of observers to heavily Latino and black counties in states with competitive Senate races.
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Safe → work → races
The purpose of the exercises is to build connections between lawyers and groups on the ground—including some that didn’t exist two years ago.
STEPHEN RICHER ATTENDED THE SIMULATIONS in Milwaukee in May.
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RICHER → build → May
As a Republican who served as the top election official in Maricopa County, Arizona’s most populous county and the site of razor-thin election margins seemingly every cycle, Richer received death threats for upholding the 2020 election results.
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Richer → serve → results
“One of the reasons I’m invited is I know how elections are administered,” he told me.
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he → invite → me
He said participants in the wargame sessions regularly consider the possibility of ICE arriving at the polls within the first hour.
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ICE → say → hour
Some possible responses Richer has seen include asking the courts for an injunction to remove ICE from the voting location, establishing a hotline to report sightings, and stationing observers at the polls.
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Richer → see → polls
Richer offered a note of reassurance.
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Richer → offer → reassurance
“I don’t mean to discount the very real anxiety that this could produce for voters, and arguably already has for voters, but logistically, ICE blanketing the states is far-fetched,” he said.
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he → mean → states
States would potentially have legal recourse after ICE-induced voting disruption.
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States → have → disruption
Richer notes that non-malicious election day occurrences, such as losing power, have led to district court orders to keep a voting location open past its scheduled closing time.
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occurrences → note → time
Interference, he said, like Trump posting a targeted threat online or violence near a voting location, would likely result in the polls staying open longer.
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polls → say → location
“I can’t guarantee that an ICE agent won’t be around a polling location in November,” former White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in February.
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Leavitt → guarantee → February
“But what I can tell you is I haven’t heard the president discuss any formal plans to put ICE outside of polling locations.”
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president → tell → locations
In September, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said ICE could be at certain polling places if there is a specific threat or to serve a warrant.
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ICE → say → warrant
Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, said early this year that the way to prevent “another” stolen election is for ICE to “surround the polls.”
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ICE → say → polls
But immigration agents at polling places is just one of the possibilities Democrats are preparing for.
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Democrats → prepare → possibilities
A FOIA request filed by the Democratic National Committee in August revealed an email from a DHS border security official to Under Secretary of Homeland Security Rob Law that included a lengthy compilation of state laws governing bilingual election requirements.
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that → file → requirements
NPR reported that one of the people copied on the email was Heather Honey, the person leading administration efforts to root out noncitizen voting.
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one → report → voting
The DNC said the email strongly suggests an attempt by the Trump administration to target prosecutions based on the presence of bilingual election resources.
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email → say → resources
The DNC filed eleven FOIA requests this summer, and it has sued the Trump administration over its failure to respond.
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it → file → failure
“Donald Trump and his allies are trying to intimidate voters and undermine confidence in our elections, but Democrats are fighting back on every front,” DNC Chair Ken Martin told me.
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Martin → try → me
“We’re taking them to court to protect voting rights and we are also training, recruiting, and deploying tens of thousands of observers across the country while partnering with communities nationwide to ensure Americans can vote freely and fairly without fear of intimidation.
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Americans → take → intimidation
All the planning and preparation may be paying dividends.
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planning → pay → dividends
Federal law prohibits “troops or armed men at any place where a general or special election is held.”
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election → prohibit → place
It’s a law with a five-year statute of limitations, which means violations of the law in 2026 could be prosecuted by an administration elected in 2028.
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violations → ’ → 2028
This is the reason Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told me that, while his staff has attended exercises wargaming ICE at the polls, he’s less concerned about it as a significant election issue.
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he → tell → issue
He says his planning includes working closely with the attorney general and governor’s office to include county and municipal law enforcement and counterterrorism officials in the state’s fusion center, the intelligence hub designed to respond to threats, “just to make sure we’re ready for any scenario and any threats or intimidation against our voters.”
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we → say → voters
“It seems unusual that we would need to prepare for threats from federal officers, but if that’s what this administration decides to do, we’ll be prepared to deal with it,” he said.
But if the system should be robust enough to protect against something like ICE agents swarming the polls, what about ICE agents taking it upon themselves to park near polling places in Latino-majority districts?
Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar said that is “definitely a real possibility.
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that → seem → State
We do have to address it.”
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We → have → it
He told me Nevada’s Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has repeatedly said, both in public and in private, that he doesn’t want federal agents at the polls.
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he → tell → polls
Lombardo’s stance “gave cover to sheriffs in Washoe and Clark Counties to say, ‘This is not in our best interest as a community.
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This → give → community
Aguilar added that Nevada, like several other states, recently passed legislation explicitly making it a state-level felony to intimidate poll workers.
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it → add → workers
Richer said that if these isolated but dangerous situations occurred, the media will be crucial.
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media → say → ?
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
