In an interview with the New York Times in September, the PM caused a stir when he floated the idea of population growth — a taboo for the Liberals, who have been blamed for the country’s immigration backlash.
asserted
who → cause → backlash
“Now the question starts to become, when do we resume some controlled increase in the population, which is the nature of Canada?” Carney told the Times.
asserted
Carney → start → Times
“So that will happen, and we just want to make sure that we’ve got it under control.”
asserted
we → happen → control
Canada’s immigration system has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past two years.
asserted
system → undergo → years
After a decade of record-high intake targets under Justin Trudeau that deepened a housing crisis, strained health care and eroded public confidence in immigration, Ottawa sharply reversed course.
asserted
Ottawa → deepen → course
The government started slashing the number of new permanent and temporary residents it would admit and tightening the rules for those already here.
asserted
it → start → those
The consequences have rippled across the country, from college campuses starved of international tuition revenue to employers scrambling to fill job vacancies to hundreds of thousands of migrants struggling to stay here.
asserted
consequences → ripple → migrants
Carney’s comments are now fuelling debate over Ottawa’s upcoming immigration levels plan for 2027-2029, and what direction it will take.
asserted
it → fuel → direction
By law, the plan must be tabled on or before Nov. 1.
asserted
plan → table → Nov.
It is a road map released by the federal government each year that sets targets for how many permanent and temporary residents will be welcomed in the next three years.
asserted
residents → release → years
What Ottawa tables will be shaped by the targets already in play, the promises Carney has made since taking office, and the stubborn math of a temporary resident population that has proven challenging to shrink.
asserted
that → shape → population
What we know from the 2026 projections
Last year, Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab projected the 2027 annual intake of new permanent residents at 380,000 in 2027 and 2028 — the same as 2026.
asserted
Diab → know → 2026
The target for arriving temporary residents, however, would be reduced further from 385,000 in 2026 to 370,000 — 220,000 workers and 150,000 students — in each of the next two years.
asserted
target → arrive → years
The targets are not set in stone and Diab’s predecessor, Marc Miller, did drastically change course in 2024 by slashing both the permanent and temporary resident intakes amid public backlash over high immigration.
asserted
predecessor → set → immigration
A long-term tracking poll by the Environics Institute since 1977 has shown Canadians’ support for immigration has dipped since 2022, hitting bottom in 2024, with a majority of people saying the country has accepted too many newcomers.
asserted
country → show → newcomers
Since becoming prime minister, Carney has pledged to reduce the share of temporary workers and international students to five per cent of the population by the end of 2027 while maintaining permanent resident admission to under one per cent of Canada’s population annually beyond 2027.
asserted
Carney → become → 2027
Currently, the share of temporary resident population still stands at 6.7 per cent of the country’s nearly 42 million population.
asserted
share → stand → population
Meanwhile, Ottawa’s hands are tied in shifting more temporary residents to permanent status if it sticks to Carney’s one per cent commitment, meaning the upper target for permanent residents can’t go over 418,000.
asserted
target → tie → 418,000
Little leeway to raise immigration
There is little wiggle room unless Ottawa finds an innovative way to account for the numbers.
asserted
Ottawa → raise → numbers
Last year, it rolled out two one-time initiatives to grant permanent residence to 115,000 people with protection status and 33,000 foreign workers in small communities over two years, but the groups were counted on top of the 2026 permanent resident target.
asserted
groups → roll → target
“They’re going to be holding at least relatively close to their 380,000 projection,” said Calgary-based immigration lawyer Mark Holthe.
asserted
Holthe → go → projection
“That five per cent temporary resident target is what’s driving a large portion of this plan.
asserted
what → drive → plan
They made a campaign promise and they are going to hit it no matter what.”
asserted
they → make → it
Last month, the C.D. Howe Institute, a Toronto-based think tank, recommended an annual admission of 380,000 permanent residents in 2027, and further reductions to 350,000 in 2028, and 340,000 in 2029.
asserted
Institute → base → 2029
It said the five per cent target for temporary residents should be treated as a ceiling and come down to three per cent in the medium and long term.
asserted
target → say → term
Managing temporary resident population is not straightforward.
asserted
Managing → manage → population
Officials can cap new study and work permits to control intakes and transition temporary residents to permanent status, but it takes resources to track and remove people with expired permits.
asserted
it → cap → permits
“The government hasn’t been able to reduce this (population) significantly,” said Parisa Mahboubi, an economist who chairs C.D. Howe’s immigration targets council.
asserted
who → reduce → council
“We are going to see a large share of transitions from TR to PR …
asserted
We → go → PR
The government has greater control over that.”
asserted
government → have → that
Larissa Bezo, president and CEO of the Canadian Bureau for International Education, doubts that Ottawa will need to raise international student intakes since it didn’t even manage to fill the quotas it set.
asserted
it → doubt → quotas
“The challenge really has shifted from perhaps managing growth to a period of where we are now having to rebuild confidence,” she noted.
“
asserted
she → shift → confidence
The larger issue from my perspective is what happens several years from now.
asserted
what → happen → perspective
Fewer students arriving today means fewer graduates, fewer researchers, fewer health-care workers, fewer engineers, fewer entrepreneurs and fewer permanent residents in the future.”
asserted
students → arrive → future
Priorities and fine-tuning programs
Diab has been clear about her plan to bring in even more French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec, raising this demographic’s share of the total annual admissions from nine per cent in 2026 to 9.5 per cent in 2027, 10.5 per cent in 2028 and 12 per cent in 2029.
asserted
Diab → bring → 2029
She has also hinted at maintaining the share of permanent residents in economic class at around 64 per cent in 2027 and 2028, while working with provinces and prioritizing talent in key sectors and industries like health care, emerging technologies and skilled trades.
asserted
She → hint → care
Earlier this year, the Immigration Department held consultations on proposed reforms to the skilled immigration programs as well as the way points are awarded to candidates for their education, work experience and language skills among other factors.
asserted
points → hold → factors
It has also asked for public input in setting economic priorities and selection categories for its targeted talent draws.
asserted
It → ask → draws
Stein Monteiro of Signal49 Research said he does not expect drastic changes to immigration policy direction, rather, more fine-tuning of current programs to better align the system with economic needs.
asserted
he → say → needs
“There’s a lot of other things they’re trying to do aside from the levels,” said Monteiro, lead immigration researcher at the independent research organization, formerly known as The Conference Board of Canada.
asserted
Monteiro → ’ → Canada
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
