With the planned tax increase, the German government is aiming to raise an additional €12 billion over four years.
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government → plan → years
In Germany, an average pack of 20 cigarettes would currently set you back around €8.05, but that could be about to change after the Bundestag voted to gradually increase tobacco taxes.
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Bundestag → set → taxes
Based on the calculations behind the proposed legislation, prices for a standard pack of cigarettes are expected to rise to €8.77 from 2027, €9.56 from 2028, €10.42 from 2029, and €11.36 from 2030.
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prices → base → 2030
Some premium brand cigarettes could cost as much as €14, whilst hand-rolling tobacco is also set to become significantly more expensive.
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tobacco → cost → 14
Germany's cigarette prices are therefore gradually catching up with those in other European countries, but they are still expected to remain below prices in some of the continent's most expensive markets, including Ireland, France, and the Netherlands.
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they → catch → Ireland
Government hopes to boost tax revenue
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Government → hop → revenue
With the planned increase, the German government aims to raise an additional €12 billion over four years.
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government → plan → years
Additional revenue of around €1.5 billion is expected for 2027, rising to €4.5 billion by 2030.
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revenue → expect → 2030
Last year, the government generated €17.6 billion in revenue from tobacco duty.
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government → generate → duty
The tobacco industry, however, doubts that the government will actually raise as much revenue as it hopes, with industry representatives warning that higher taxes could also drive smokers increasingly towards the black market or towards cheaper cigarettes from other EU countries.
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taxes → doubt → countries
Legal tobacco retailers could be among those hit hardest.
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retailers → hit → those
CDU MP Carsten Brodesser has called for more moderate tax increases, arguing that steeper hikes could risk both lower tax revenues and adverse effects on the legal tobacco trade.
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hikes → call → trade
However, he was unable to get his proposal adopted.
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proposal → get → ?
During a debate in the Bundestag, SPD MP Ingo Vogel acknowledged that reform was partly intended to help balance the budget but that it also had a public health objective - making nicotine less attractive.
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nicotine → acknowledge → objective
Vogel welcomed news that taxes on cigars and cigarillos would not rise as sharply as had previously been planned.
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taxes → welcome → cigars
Taxes on e-cigarette liquids, however, were increased slightly more than had been expected.
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Taxes → increase → liquids
"Inexpensive products, in particular, should not become an easy gateway to nicotine consumption, which is why we are raising the price threshold in this area," Vogel said, adding that concerns raised by customs officials and their union about a possible rise in the black market were being taken "very, very seriously.
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concerns → become → market
"
Should demand shift to illegal channels, then "we will not only lose out financially, but we will also have to deal more with criminal networks," he said.
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he → shift → networks
AfD, Die Linke, and Greens criticise hikes
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AfD → criticise → hikes
The far-right AfD party has criticised the increase, with MP Christian Douglas pointing to what he sees as a contradiction in the government's approach: it justifies higher tobacco taxes on public health grounds whilst also expecting tax revenues to increase, suggesting the coalition does not actually expect tobacco consumption to fall.
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consumption → criticise → grounds
The Greens, on the other hand, support a higher tobacco tax in principle but consider the planned increases to be too small.
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increases → support → principle
Die Linke, like the AfD, voted against the reform.
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Linke → vote → reform
According to the 2025 microcensus, around 19% of people aged 15 and over in Germany smoke.
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% → accord → Germany
The German Cancer Research Centre said around 131,000 people died from tobacco-related illnesses in 2023.
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people → say → 2023
Health experts regard higher prices as an effective means of encouraging people to give up smoking.
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experts → regard → smoking
On Friday, the Bundesrat will vote on the amendment to the tobacco tax law.
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Bundesrat → vote → law
With no objections currently anticipated, the tax increase is expected to be approved.
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increase → anticipate → ?
The Aporia
