Erich Richter predicts that the Cincinnati Bengals will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a high-scoring game this Sunday. The Bengals are favored by 3.5 points as they look to improve upon their poor defensive performance from last season, despite some offseason improvements. Both teams have struggled defensively; the Bengals ranked 30th while the Buccaneers allowed the most yards per play at 6.2. Richter recommends betting on the over with a target of 49.5 total points at -110 odds or 58 points at +230 odds, highlighting Burrow's potential for offensive dominance despite recent defensive challenges.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-13,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
In Week 1 of the NFL season, the Cincinnati Bengals are favored by 3.5 points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a home game for Cincinnati. Expert Erich Richter predicts an offensive showcase due to both teams' struggles on defense and strong quarterback play from Joe Burrow. The Bengals recently added defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence but may still face issues without Shemar Stewart, who is doubtful to play. Richter recommends betting the Over at 49.5 total points (-110) or more aggressively at 58 points (+230).
Written for “NFL Week 1 Picks” on 2026-09-14,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
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No political leaning scored for article 8419 · logged 2026-09-13
It’s another game where a big offense could be on display this weekend.
uncertain
offense → ’ → display
Joe Burrow hopes to come back with a vengeance for Cincinnati as the Bengals 3.5-point favorites in this home matchup against the Buccaneers.
asserted
Burrow → hop → Buccaneers
Tampa Bay just paid Baker Mayfield big money for his arm and I think both teams air it out here.
asserted
teams → pay → it
The Bengals had the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL in DVOA last year, and while the team invested real capital on that side of the ball, I’m not sure they’ll be much better this year.
asserted
they → have → ball
The Buccaneers have a fully healthy offense for the first time since early 2025.
asserted
Buccaneers → have → 2025
Zac Taylor’s group allowed 6.2 yards per play last season, the worst in the league in a historically bad season.
asserted
group → allow → season
So while the Bengals did invest more in their defense by adding ex-Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, it appears they’ll be without Shemar Stewart, who is doubtful.
asserted
who → invest → Stewart
I’m seriously dubious those defensive weaknesses are fixed.
asserted
weaknesses → ’m → ?
It’s possible that Burrow comes in here with a renewed attitude as one of the NFL’s most elite quarterbacks, but I want the hook here to keep this within a field goal.
asserted
I → ’ → goal
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Burrow has played in a lot of one-possession games of late, with nine of his last 15 starts ending within eight points.
We’re going to target the Over here in an aggressive way.
THE PLAY: Over 49.5 total points (-110, Fanatics) | Over 58 total points (+230, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.
asserted
he → read → betting
During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons.
asserted
he → showcase → market
While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
asserted
return → bet → 2022
