Hundreds of thousands of dollars have been wagered on Ontario municipal races via prediction markets
Bettors could be Canadians using VPN’s to sidestep Canadian rules, says expert
Betting on the outcome of elections isn’t allowed in Canada — but that’s not stopping prediction market websites like Polymarket and Kalshi from taking hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of wagers on who will win Ontario’s municipal races this October.
On Polymarket, for example, close to $400,000 has been spent so far on bets about who will be the next Toronto mayor, while about $43,000 has been spent on Kalshi.
uncertain
43,000 → wager → Kalshi
Similar wagers have been set up for places like Oshawa, Oakville and Mississauga, with total accumulated bets ranging from about $5,000 to about $40,000.
asserted
bets → set → 40,000
There is also some betting happening on the online "social prediction game" Manifold, which uses play money instead of real currency.
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which → be → currency
Though there's nothing illegal about a non-Canadian prediction market taking bets on Canadian elections, Ontarians themselves aren't allowed to participate.
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Ontarians → be → elections
Prediction markets, which allow users to bet on nearly any kind of event, are regulated here, with wagers limited to predictions on climate, financial markets or economic indicators, and available solely through dealers authorized by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO).
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wagers → allow → Organization
Polymarket is also currently riding out a two-year ban in Ontario, after the Ontario Securities Commission argued that the website broke provincial securities law in 2025.
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website → rid → 2025
Even though it’s not allowed here, it wouldn’t be difficult for Canadians interested in betting on municipal elections to do so, says Cristie Ford, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia who focuses on financial regulation.
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who → allow → regulation
“You can use a VPN to conceal your physical location, or the location of your computer in Canada, to make it look as though you're outside of Canada,” she said.
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she → use → Canada
Polymarket spokesperson Connor Brandi told CBC News the platform “strictly prohibits the use of VPNs or similar tools to bypass geographic restrictions,” adding that it carries out monitoring and reviews to detect users doing so.
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users → tell → monitoring
Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever says the platform has seen "no evidence" of the use of VPN's to bet on Ontario races.
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platform → say → races
"We restrict election markets in Canada.
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We → restrict → Canada
Because we verify every user’s identity and residency at signup, using a VPN does not get around that restriction," she wrote.
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she → verify → restriction
The real risk with the betting, and the reason it's not allowed, says Ford, is the possible skewing of public perception of the candidate’s chances in a way that could impact election results.
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that → allow → results
“By making it look as though there's momentum behind a particular candidate, you can potentially affect whether or not people show up to vote,” she said.
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she → make → candidate
Nelson Pang, a PhD candidate at the University of Toronto who studies risk-taking behaviour among young people, says that group is particularly at risk of making unwise betting decisions on the platforms, with a lot of industry marketing and advertising targeted toward young men.
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lot → study → men
CBC News asked both of Toronto's leading mayoral candidates — Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford — about their reaction to the wagers.
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News → ask → wagers
“I am certainly not engaged in any of that,” said Bradford.
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Bradford → engage → that
He encouraged people to vote, not bet, saying it's the “only way” to make political change.
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it → encourage → change
Chow, speaking at a campaign event promoting libraries, said that she hasn’t looked at the platforms but that it’s up to other levels of government to finetune their regulations.
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it → speak → regulations
“That’s a whole lot of money,” she added.
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she → ’ → money
“Maybe that money could be donated to the library foundation.”
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money → donate → foundation
Who’s in charge?
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Who → ’ → charge
While the risks of this kind of wager may be clear — it’s trickier to identify which Canadian authority should be ultimately tasked with enforcing the rules.
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authority → ’ → rules
The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC), which banned Polymarket, says it expects all parties subject to its orders and settlement agreements to comply with their obligations.
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parties → ban → obligations
Ultimately, though, the OSC says the regulation of prediction markets is up to the Canadian Securities Administrators, an umbrella organization that represents provincial government agencies, and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, a non-profit that allows the investment industry to self-regulate.
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industry → say → agencies
In its response to CBC News, CIRO spokesperson Ariel Visconti reiterated its rules around which topics and investment dealers are authorized, but didn’t describe any further steps to improve regulation enforcement.
“If an investor uses a VPN or other means to circumvent geographic restrictions to access these platforms, they are not protected by the regulatory safeguards that apply when trading through a CIRO-regulated investment dealer,” wrote Visconti.
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Visconti → reiterate → dealer
CBC News also contacted the Canadian Securities Administrators for comment, and will update with any response once it's received.
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it → contact → response
The Aporia
