A new poll reports that the Liberals have increased their national lead with 49% support from decided voters, up three points since August. In contrast, the Conservatives are at 33%, down one point. The poll’s executive vice-president, Andrew Enns, notes an uptick in Liberal support correlating with negative U.S.-Canada relations and criticism from President Trump, particularly among older Canadians and those in British Columbia and Ontario.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-12,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
A new poll shows the Liberal Party maintaining a lead with 49% support among decided voters, up three points since August. The Conservatives follow at 33%, down one point. When relations between Canada and the U.S. deteriorate or President Trump attacks Canada, it benefits the Liberals and hinders the Conservatives, according to Andrew Enns from Leger. Support for the Liberal Party is particularly strong in British Columbia (59%), Ontario (53%), and among Canadians aged 55 and over (60%). The Conservatives have their strongest backing in Alberta (64%) and rural Canada (43%). Overall, 57% of Canadians are satisfied with the federal government's performance.
Written for “Canadian Election Polls” on 2026-09-12,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
The Liberals continue to lead nationally with 49 per cent support among decided voters and up three points since August.
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Liberals → continue → August
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are sitting at 33 per cent (down one point).
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Conservatives → sit → cent
“These results confirm once again that when Canada-U.S. relations take a downturn and/or President Trump starts attacking Canada, that’s good news for the Liberal Party, and it seems, bad news for Conservatives,” says Andrew Enns, executive vice-president, Central Canada for Leger.
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Enns → confirm → Leger
The poll results show the Conservatives are followed by the Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent (up one), the NDP at 6 per cent (down two), the Greens at 3 per cent (down one), and other parties at 2 per cent (unchanged).
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Conservatives → show → cent
Support for the Liberals is particularly strong in British Columbia (59 per cent), Ontario (53 per cent) and among Canadians aged 55 and over (60 per cent).
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Support → age → cent
Conservatives have their strongest support in Alberta (64 per cent), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (47 per cent), as well as rural Canada (43 per cent).
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Conservatives → have → Alberta
Canadians continue to express positive support for the federal government, with 57 per cent satisfied and 36 per cent dissatisfied with its current performance.
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cent → continue → performance
Satisfaction is highest in Quebec (65 per cent) and among Canadians aged 55 and over (64 per cent).
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Satisfaction → age → Canadians
It is lower in Alberta (37 per cent), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (46 per cent) and among those aged 35 to 54 (47 per cent).
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It → age → cent
Support for Prime Minister Carney’s performance is also positive, with an approval rating of 58 per cent, while 34 per cent disapprove.
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cent → disapprove → cent
His approval is highest in Quebec (68 per cent) and among Canadians aged 55 and over (67 per cent).
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approval → age → Canadians
It is lower in Alberta (38 per cent) and among those aged 35 to 54 (51 per cent).
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It → age → cent
“Younger adults are most anxious about their economic futures, so noise about a trade war and the PM warning to ‘expect difficult times ahead’ likely doesn’t sit particularly well with this generation,” says Enns.
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Enns → expect → generation
“They are already feeling nervous about the breakneck pace that AI integration is on and the implications that has for future jobs and careers.”
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that → feel → jobs
Opinion of the federal government and Carney continues to be strongly associated with federal voting intentions.
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Opinion → continue → intentions
Satisfaction with the government reaches 91 per cent among Liberal voters, compared with just 21 per cent among Conservative voters.
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Satisfaction → reach → voters
Approval of Prime Minister Carney’s performance stands at 92 per cent among Liberal voters and 23 per cent among Conservative voters.
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Approval → stand → voters
Given the Liberal wins in three recent byelections in Ontario, Quebec and B.C. and the general pro-Canada sentiment, the survey results are no great surprise, says Enns.
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Enns → give → Ontario
“The Liberals have increased their standing at the expense of Conservatives, NDP and Green.
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Liberals → increase → Conservatives
Support for the Liberals is particularly high in Quebec, which is interesting given the provincial Liberal party is struggling to make up ground in that province’s provincial election.
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party → give → election
It’s also high in B.C. and among voters age 55 and older.
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It → ’ → voters
This online survey was conducted among 1,538 respondents 18 years of age or older between Sept. 5 and 7, 2026.
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survey → conduct → Sept.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than ±2.5 per cent (19 times out of 20) for the sample.
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sample → yield → sample
