For four days last week, more than a million Oregonians were warned about the perils of Troy Jackson.
asserted
Oregonians → warn → Jackson
They had reason to be puzzled.
asserted
They → have → reason
Jackson is running for the Senate in Maine.
asserted
Jackson → run → Maine
A Republican super PAC bought YouTube ads against him in Portland and its vendor picked the wrong Portland.
asserted
vendor → buy → Portland
An ad that misses its audience because of a scheduling error is an embarrassment.
asserted
that → miss → error
One that hits exactly the audience it was made for can also be.
asserted
it → hit → audience
Starting in late September, Homeland Security lined up $20 million to air spots glorifying Donald Trump during football games, morning shows and “Meet the Press.”
asserted
Security → start → Press
One sets his image to a song called “Love Me” by independent artist JMSN, who did not authorize its use.
asserted
who → set → use
Another lifts footage from his 2024 campaign.
asserted
Another → lift → campaign
Trump insists they are public service announcements.
asserted
they → insist → ?
“I’m not promoting myself because I’m not running for office,” he said.
asserted
he → promote → office
Then he offered to pay for them himself, with money raised for his super PAC.
asserted
he → offer → PAC
A government letting a political committee pick up the tab for its PSAs.
asserted
committee → let → PSAs
That would be like Premier Doug Ford having the Ontario PCs pick up the tab for his government’s “Protecting Ontario” ads.
asserted
PCs → have → ads
If a political party can run your public service announcement without changing a frame, it was never one.
asserted
it → run → frame
Would the ads have worked?
asserted
ads → work → ?
Late Saturday, facing three lawsuits, the administration told a federal judge the ads would stop after Sunday.
asserted
ads → face → Sunday
That leaves the question that interests me: would they have worked if they continued through voting day?
asserted
they → leave → day
It’s possible they could have boosted turnout, which decides midterms.
uncertain
which → ’ → midterms
Trump’s advisers say their job is to turn Trump voters into midterm voters.
asserted
job → say → voters
Football broadcasts are where you find people who avoid politics.
asserted
who → find → politics
We call this retention: keeping the customers you have rather than chasing new ones.
asserted
you → call → ones
It’s a respectable strategy.
asserted
It → ’ → ?
Midterms are won district by district.
asserted
Midterms → win → district
A national network buy spreads most of its money over safe seats and states with no race worth the name.
asserted
buy → spread → race
When groups linked to Trump’s super PAC want to win, they spend differently, targeting specific contests with ads that feature the president only sparingly.
asserted
that → link → president
Trump’s own strategists wanted ads about candidates and Trump overruled them.
asserted
Trump → want → them
Even Karl Rove warned in the Wall Street Journal that making the midterm about Trump only helps Democrats.
asserted
midterm → warn → Democrats
Trump’s approval sits in the mid-30s and almost nobody is undecided about him.
asserted
nobody → sit → him
Put him at the centre of a midterm and you hand Democrats the national referendum they want.
asserted
they → put → referendum
When The Bulwark showed one ad to Floridians who voted for Trump in 2024 but now disapprove of him, the very voters he needs back, one said it left him needing Pepto-Bismol.
asserted
it → show → Bismol
And then there’s the coverage, which reached far more people than the airtime ever did.
asserted
airtime → ’ → people
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 86 per cent of Americans, including 4-in-5 Republicans, think it inappropriate to spend public money on election ads featuring the president.
asserted
it → find → president
When the coverage of a campaign does more damage than the campaign does good, you pull it.
asserted
you → do → it
Trump didn’t.
asserted
Trump → do → ?
It took a lawsuit to get there.
asserted
It → take → lawsuit
The New York Times reports that in August, while advisers waited for him to release super PAC money to nervous candidates, Trump had his aide, Natalie Harp, pull up videos of himself on her tablet: crowds, Marine One, fighter jets.
asserted
aide → report → tablet
His presidency, he told the room, needed to be front and centre.
asserted
he → tell → room
Weeks later he told his budget director to find taxpayer money to put similar images on national television.
asserted
he → tell → television
In over 40 years in advertising agencies, I learned to spot the ad made for an audience of one: the client.
asserted
I → learn → one
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
