As Israelis prepare to vote on October 27, African governments from Pretoria to Rabat are weighing what the result could mean for their own foreign and domestic policies.
uncertain
result → prepare → policies
The war on Gaza has exposed sharp differences across the continent, with some governments pursuing diplomatic measures against Israel while others maintain commercial and security ties.
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others → expose → ties
Recent polling has shown a closely contested race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and the far-right coalition it leads and a bloc of Jewish-led opposition parties.
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it → show → parties
Neither is projected to win the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, with a protracted period of coalition talks expected to follow the vote.
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period → project → vote
The next government’s approach to Gaza and the Palestinian question could influence Israel’s efforts to preserve and expand its partnerships across the continent.
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approach → influence → continent
Israel’s relationships across Africa are shaped by competing priorities.
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relationships → shape → priorities
While the Gaza war has intensified diplomatic pressure and public opposition in many countries, security needs, commercial interests and longstanding bilateral partnerships continue to influence government decisions.
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needs → intensify → decisions
Since the war began in October 2023, South Africa has emerged as one of Israel’s most vocal critics in Africa.
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Africa → begin → Africa
Its government brought a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), alleging violations of the 1948 Genocide Convention.
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government → bring → Convention
Israel rejects the allegations.
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Israel → reject → allegations
The court’s so-called provisional measures in 2024, including an order for Israel to take action to prevent acts of genocide, are not a final ruling on whether genocide has occurred.
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genocide → call → genocide
In November 2023, South Africa’s National Assembly adopted a motion calling on the government to close the Israeli embassy and suspend diplomatic relations.
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Assembly → adopt → relations
The motion did not itself implement those measures, but it underscored the strength of political opposition to Israel’s military campaign.
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it → implement → campaign
Other African governments have taken different approaches that reflect national political priorities and foreign policy calculations rather than a single continental position.
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that → take → priorities
Chad recalled its ambassador to Israel in November 2023, while some countries have maintained relations despite criticism of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
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countries → recall → Gaza
Morocco offers a contrasting example.
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Morocco → offer → example
It restored relations with Israel in 2020 under a US-backed arrangement linked to Washington’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
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It → restore → Sahara
Despite public demonstrations opposing normalisation, Rabat has continued to pursue closer ties.
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Rabat → oppose → ties
On September 16, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita met in New York at a trilateral summit hosted by US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz.
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Sa’ar → meet → Waltz
The three countries reaffirmed plans to upgrade diplomatic relations, elevate their respective missions to embassies and appoint ambassadors.
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countries → reaffirm → ambassadors
They also agreed to conclude investment protection and double taxation agreements by the end of this year, expand flights to include Moroccan airlines and arrange reciprocal high-level visits in the coming months.
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They → agree → months
These were announced commitments, rather than confirmation that the changes had already been implemented.
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changes → announce → confirmation
For Idowu Johnson, associate professor of international relations at the University of Ibadan, the diversity of African states makes it difficult to predict a uniform response to Israel’s election.
“Africa’s heterogeneity means individual states have handled relations with Israel separately.
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states → make → Israel
Since the October 7, 2023 attacks, African criticism has focused on Israel’s denial of Palestinian statehood.
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criticism → focus → statehood
“The October 27 election will therefore be pivotal, as a new government’s stance on the Palestinian cause will shape how far Africa cooperates on agriculture, trade, security and technology, guided by self-determination and international law as well as bilateral interests,” Johnson said.
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Johnson → shape → determination
Israel’s relationship with the African Union (AU) also reflects these divisions.
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relationship → reflect → divisions
In 2021, the AU Commission chairperson accredited Israel’s representative to the organisation, prompting objections from member states.
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chairperson → accredit → states
In February 2022, the AU Assembly established a committee of heads of state and government to consult on Israel’s observer status.
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Assembly → establish → status
The dispute continued into 2023, when the AU moved to suspend Israel’s accreditation pending further consideration.
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AU → continue → consideration
The disagreement has reflected wider divisions over Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and the organisation’s approach to the conflict.
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disagreement → reflect → conflict
A new Israeli government could seek to ease those tensions, but any change would depend on its policies as well as the positions of AU member states.
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change → seek → states
Security ties may outlast diplomatic tensions
Security cooperation has been a significant part of Israel’s relationships with some African governments.
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cooperation → outlast → governments
Israeli companies have pursued defence and security contracts involving equipment, surveillance technology and training.
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companies → pursue → equipment
But the nature and scale of those relationships vary by country and claims about particular agreements or technologies should be tied to documented cases rather than treated as evidence of a uniform Israeli security presence across the continent.
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claims → vary → continent
The Democratic Republic of the Congo offers a recent example of efforts to deepen cooperation.
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Republic → offer → cooperation
Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi visited Israel on August 31 and September 1, meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog.
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Tshisekedi → visit → Netanyahu
Discussions covered security, defence, agriculture, infrastructure, energy and high technology.
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Discussions → cover → security
Both sides expressed a desire to strengthen their strategic partnership and expand cooperation across several sectors.
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sides → express → sectors
The visit followed memorandums of understanding signed on July 27.
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visit → follow → July
Congolese officials said the visit would review those agreements and explore further Israeli investment, including opportunities linked to the Lobito Corridor.
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visit → say → Corridor
…and 33 more, not listed.
The Aporia
