Le Pen and Melenchon gain momentum ahead of French 2027 election, poll shows

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The Straits Times. (2026, October 14). Le Pen and Melenchon gain momentum ahead of French 2027 election, poll shows. The Straits Times. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/le-pen-and-melenchon-gain-momentum-ahead-of-french-2027-election-poll-shows

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The Straits Times · collected 2026-10-14 · by The Straits Times

Quick Summary

A recent poll by Odoxa indicates that Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon are leading in pre-election sentiment for the French 2027 presidential race. Conducted between September 24 and October 7, the survey of 12,000 people shows Le Pen with either 37% or 38% support for the first round, followed by Melenchon at 18% or 18.5%. The poll highlights a polarized political landscape as Emmanuel Macron's tenure nears its end, with centrist candidates like Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal lagging significantly behind.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-14, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 14, 2026, a poll by Odoxa shows that French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon are gaining momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential election. In scenarios tested among 12,000 people between September 24 and October 7, Le Pen is projected to lead in the first round with either 37% or 38% of votes, while Mélenchon would secure 18% or 18.5%. This polarisation widens as Emmanuel Macron's presidency nears its end, with centrist candidates like Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal polling significantly lower at 17% and 11%, respectively. Le Pen is also predicted to easily win in a run-off against Mélenchon or Philippe, indicating the shrinking influence of France’s centrist political space.

Written for “French Election Polls Update” on 2026-10-14, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans right (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans right for article 79829 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-14

Story

📰 French Election Polls Update
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Le Pen, Melenchon head for run-off as France's political divide deepens, poll shows different event · 95%
The Straits Times · 0.88 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 10 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles describe different polls conducted by different pollsters over different time periods.”
French centre left must wage ‘existential battle’ to prevent far right winning presidency different event · 95%
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 22 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss different aspects of the French political landscape and election dynamics, rather than a single specific incident or occurrence.”
Presidential hopeful Melenchon joins France school protest march different event · 95%
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Centre further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles describe different aspects of Melenchon's political activities: one focuses on his participation in a school protest march, while the other reports poll results about his electoral standing.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
11
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 11 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
59/100
The Straits Times's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-14 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

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Publisher

The Straits Times · 2732 article(s) · 3 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 3 correction(s)
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🔮 • Le Pen would top the first-round vote with either 37% or 38% depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Odoxa in a survey carried out among 12,000 people between September 24 and October 7.
2026-10-14 · assertive framing · Le Pen and Melenchon gain momentum ahead of French 2027 election, poll shows
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 1801 articles by The Straits Times →

Topics

France French Odoxa PARIS REUTERS

Subjects

Le Pen PERSON · 4× Melenchon PERSON · 4× French NORP · 2× Macron PERSON · 2× Philippe PERSON · 2× Emmanuel Macron's PERSON · 1× Jean-Luc Melenchon PERSON · 1× Marine Le Pen PERSON · 1× Odoxa ORG · 1× PARIS GPE · 1×

Narrative

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon are gaining momentum ahead of next year's presidential election, a poll showed on Wednesday, with political polarisation widening as Emmanuel Macron's era draws to a close.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-14
🔮 • Le Pen would top the first-round vote with either 37% or 38% depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Odoxa in a survey carried out among 12,000 people between September 24 and October 7.
2026-10-14 · The Straits Times
Le Pen and Melenchon gain momentum ahead of French 2027 election, poll shows · assertive framing

Claims (11 extracted, 0 hedged)

Le Pen and Melenchon gain momentum ahead of French 2027 election, poll shows PARIS, Oct 14 - asserted
poll → gain → election
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon are gaining momentum ahead of next year's presidential election, a poll showed on Wednesday, with political polarisation widening as Emmanuel Macron's era draws to a close. asserted
era → gain → close
• Le Pen would top the first-round vote with either 37% or 38% depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Odoxa in a survey carried out among 12,000 people between September 24 and October 7. asserted
Pen → top → September
• Melenchon would come second with 18% or 18.5% in each of the two scenarios. asserted
Melenchon → come → scenarios
• Both were tested against one centrist candidate comprising either Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal, both of whom are former Prime Ministers of Emmanuel Macron. asserted
both → test → Macron
Philippe is seen getting 17% of the votes, while Attal would get only 11%. asserted
Attal → see → %
• Le Pen is seen beating Melenchon easily in a run-off and also winning, albeit with a more narrow margin, if she faced Philippe. asserted
she → see → Philippe
• The growing unpopularity of Macron, as he comes to the end of his two terms as president, has hollowed out France's centrist political ground. asserted
he → grow → ground
• Melenchon has already run three times for president in 2012, 2017 and 2022 but has never managed to reach the second round. asserted
Melenchon → run → round
Le Pen has also run these same three times. asserted
Pen → run → ?
She made it to the run-off in 2017 and 2022, but lost to Macron. asserted
She → make → Macron
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