College Still Has a Future, but It's No Longer the Default Choice

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Cite

Tuccille, J. (2026, October 14). College Still Has a Future, but It's No Longer the Default Choice. Reason. https://reason.com/2026/10/14/college-still-has-a-future-but-its-no-longer-the-default-choice/

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Reason · collected 2026-10-14 · by J.D. Tuccille

Quick Summary

Americans' perception of the importance of a college education has declined, with only 31% now considering it "very important," down from 70% in 2013. This shift is driven by concerns over rising tuition costs and political bias on campuses. For instance, some colleges now cost more than $100,000 annually, while studies highlight the politicization of academic scholarship, particularly from a progressive left perspective. These factors contribute to declining college applications despite an already shrinking applicant pool.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-14, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As concerns over soaring tuition costs and campus political intolerance grow, a decreasing number of Americans believe that higher education is worthwhile. According to recent Gallup polling, 31% of Americans now think a college education is "very important," marking a four-point drop from the previous year and reaching the lowest level since 1978 when Gallup first asked this question. Meanwhile, those who consider college "not too important" have risen from 6% in 2013 to 29% today. Academics are also acknowledging that they've lost goodwill over the years due to politicization and a shift toward scholarship serving political goals rather than advancing knowledge.

Written for “College Future In Question” on 2026-10-14, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.45, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 79074: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-14

Story

📰 College Future In Question
Education · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
39
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
2 of 39 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
66/100
Reason's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Education
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-14 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Reason · 714 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)

Who wrote this

J.D. Tuccille
11 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Academics themselves—the honest ones, anyway—acknowledge that they've squandered a lot of goodwill over the years.
🔮 "Democrats and Republicans both say that the other party's members are hypocritical, selfish, and closed-minded, and they are unwilling to socialize across party lines.
🔮 As I write, I have my virtual private network (VPN) set to show me as surfing the internet from Berlin, Germany, despite my location in Arizona, for no good reason other than that I can.
2026-10-07 · assertive framing · Federal Court Slaps Down Utah's VPN Restrictions
🔮 The problem for those of us who didn't already know is that, as detailed by Abhi Gupta of the Yale Budget Lab, legislators have almost totally abdicated their fiscal responsibilities: "Since 2004, Congress has generally enacted less deficit reduction than its pre-2004 predecessors would have in response to the budget outlooks it faced, even as federal debt has climbed past 100% of GDP."
🔮 Despite that equalizing power, gun ownership long remained a largely masculine pursuit for cultural reasons that might be worthy of research.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Women Are Better Armed Than Ever
🔮 Drawing on data from the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), Muresianu and Cardwell note that "Americans will spend almost 6.9 billion hours complying with IRS tax filing and reporting requirements in 2026.
2026-09-30 · assertive framing · Filing Taxes Will Cost Americans $544 Billion This Year
🔮 Federal Health Spending Is Twice the Size of the Defense Budget "The largest and fastest-growing category of federal spending is major healthcare programs, including Medicare, Medicaid, Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP)," William McBride and Guy Cardwell wrote last week for the Tax Foundation.
🔮 California's proposed "billionaire's tax" on the assets of wealthy state residents enjoys a slim lead in the polls leading up to the midterm elections, though so do two measures that, if they draw more votes, could render the scheme unenforceable.
🔮 The real question in the years to come is who will be more damaged by the escalating trade war between the U.S. and Canada.
🔮 It further points out that while the law makes exceptions for licensed security guards, it would be "prohibitively expensive" for the synagogue to hire armed guards.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Maryland Synagogue Challenges Restrictive Gun Law
Also by J.D. Tuccille
Women Are Better Armed Than Ever
2026-10-02 · Reason
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 11 articles by J.D. Tuccille →

Topics

Americans Gallup J.D. Reason U.S.

Subjects

Americans NORP · 7× Gallup ORG · 2× U.S. GPE · 2× America GPE · 1× Business Insider ORG · 1× J.D. ORG · 1× J.D. Tuccille PERSON · 1× Reason ORG · 1× Vanderbilt ORG · 1× Vanderbilt University ORG · 1×

Narrative

Almost at the same time, Vanderbilt released a report warning "there are several worrying tendencies in contemporary academic scholarship in the humanities and social sciences, all of which reflect, to varying degrees, a distinctive form of politicization in which the scholarly enterprise is taken to be subordinate to, or in the service of, political (social or moral) goals beyond the advancement of knowledge and understanding."
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-14
🔮 Academics themselves—the honest ones, anyway—acknowledge that they've squandered a lot of goodwill over the years.
2026-10-14 · Reason
College Still Has a Future, but It's No Longer the Default Choice · assertive framing

Claims (39 extracted, 2 hedged)

Amid concerns over soaring tuition costs and campus political intolerance, a growing share of Americans aren't convinced that higher education is worthwhile. asserted
education → soar → Americans
Academics themselves—the honest ones, anyway—acknowledge that they've squandered a lot of goodwill over the years. asserted
they → acknowledge → years
Fortunately, it's still possible to get an education that justifies the time and money—though the path doesn't necessarily go through college. asserted
path → get → college
You are reading The Rattler from J.D. Tuccille and Reason. asserted
You → read → Tuccille
High Costs and Political Bias Sour Americans on College "Three in 10 Americans (31%) think a college education is 'very important,' four percentage points below last year's reading, the previous low among the seven times Gallup has asked this question since 1978," the polling firm reported earlier this month. asserted
firm → sour → 1978
"As recently as 2013, more than twice as many U.S. adults (70%) said college was very important." asserted
college → say → 2013
Gallup adds that "the percentage of U.S. adults who say a college education is 'not too important' has risen from 6% in 2013 to 29% today, while the percentage saying it is 'fairly important' has increased from 23% to 39%." asserted
it → add → %
Higher education plummeted in public esteem for more than one reason. asserted
education → plummet → reason
For years, Americans have voiced concern about rising costs and political intolerance on campuses. asserted
Americans → voice → campuses
Last year, even as a Vanderbilt University poll found a slight rebound in favorability toward colleges and universities, the authors noted that "Americans across the political spectrum still are deeply concerned about the affordability of higher education" and "many Americans see political bias in higher education as a serious problem." asserted
Americans → find → problem
The problem was underlined this year when some colleges broke the $100,000 mark in annual costs. asserted
colleges → underline → costs
"Today, a bachelor's degree at some of America's top schools can cost upward of nearly half a million dollars over four years," reported Business Insider. asserted
Insider → cost → years
"And the trend doesn't seem to be slowing down." asserted
trend → seem → ?
Almost at the same time, Vanderbilt released a report warning "there are several worrying tendencies in contemporary academic scholarship in the humanities and social sciences, all of which reflect, to varying degrees, a distinctive form of politicization in which the scholarly enterprise is taken to be subordinate to, or in the service of, political (social or moral) goals beyond the advancement of knowledge and understanding." asserted
enterprise → release → knowledge
The goals of this politicization, the study added, "are generally though not exclusively associated with the progressive left. asserted
study → add → left
Unsurprisingly, many Americans balk at paying through the nose so they (or their kids) can spend four years at woke camp. asserted
they → balk → camp
That trepidation undoubtedly contributes to declining college applications at a time when the applicant pool is already shrinking. asserted
pool → contribute → time
Many students who do apply to college are applying very modern filters to the schools they'll consider. asserted
they → apply → schools
"The median student is willing to pay up to $2,617 (12.5%) more to attend a college where the share of students with opposing political views is 10 percentage points lower, suggesting that political identity plays a meaningful role in the college choice process," found a 2025 study from the Annenberg Institute at Brown University which documented "a steady increase in political sorting across American colleges." asserted
which → pay → colleges
This month, a survey from Art & Science Group, a higher education consultancy, found that among college applicants, "the share ruling out colleges solely because of politics in a state rose from 24% in 2023 to 31% in winter 2026 and 34% in summer 2026." Employers haven't stopped hiring from prestigious colleges and universities. asserted
Employers → find → colleges
But the definition of "elite" has changed, with some firms leery of traditional Ivy Leagues and preferring southern schools where costs are lower and ideological tolerance still has a place. asserted
tolerance → change → place
College Still Offers Value for Those Who Choose Wisely Higher education can still be worthwhile for students who apply due diligence to their selection of schools and fields of study. asserted
who → offer → study
College offers a good return on the investment of time and money for those who choose wisely. asserted
who → offer → those
According to the Education Data Initiative, "an average bachelor's degree has a 560.53% lifetime return on investment with a median lifetime return up to 1,040.14%." uncertain
degree → accord → %
"The most cost-efficient bachelor's degree is in management information systems and statistics, with a lifetime ROI of 1,758.59%," while "a Bachelor of Psychology offers the lowest lifetime ROI at -122.78%, representing a $54,188 loss in degree-based earnings (compared to median earnings with a high school diploma). asserted
Bachelor → offer → diploma
But return on investment also depends heavily on the cost of the degree; it's more difficult to get your money's worth when you pay top dollar. asserted
you → depend → dollar
Trade Schools Rise as Employer Demand for College Degrees Falls But college is not the only choice for young Americans planning their futures. asserted
college → rise → futures
According to a 2025 Harris survey for the American Staffing Association, more Americans now recommend that graduating high school seniors go to trade school (33 percent) than recommend college (28 percent). uncertain
seniors → accord → college
Trade schools cost a fraction of what four-year colleges cost. asserted
colleges → cost → what
And they satisfy a growing demand for skilled workers. asserted
they → satisfy → workers
"Of the 124 skilled trades occupations, 86 are projected to grow or hold steady, and more than 600,000 net new positions are projected through 2035," the Alliance for Skilled Trades, a coalition of companies that depend on trades people, notes in a recent report. asserted
that → project → report
"Employers will need to fill about 1.7 million openings each year." Note that new positions are opening even as the population of job-market entrants shrinks. asserted
population → need → entrants
And employers increasingly value experience and in-house training over college degrees of dubious value. asserted
employers → value → value
Last year, a quarter of employers reported that they were eliminating requirements for bachelor's degrees among new hires. asserted
they → report → hires
Higher education still has a role to play. asserted
education → have → role
But "education" doesn't have to mean four years of high tuition. asserted
education → have → tuition
It can be a certification program or trade school that launches graduates into a productive life. asserted
that → launch → life
After decades of being the default path for many Americans, colleges and universities have alienated people with high prices and intolerant ideological environments. asserted
colleges → alienate → prices
They still have a lot to offer, but now they have to compete with alternatives for the time and money of a skeptical public. asserted
they → have → public
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