Forecasters predicted a below-average hurricane season due to El Niño, and so far they've been right: no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin despite it being peak season. This year's hurricane season will set a new record for the latest date without an Atlantic hurricane forming, surpassing the previous records of 11 September set in 2002 and 2013. Currently, there have only been five tropical storms this year, compared to the eight or nine that would typically develop by now. The still-strengthening El Niño is expected to continue causing quieter conditions over the next week.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-11,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
A new record will be set this week for the latest date without a hurricane forming in the Atlantic basin. According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest on record, peaking in November or December. This year's hurricane season has been remarkably quiet, with only five tropical storms having formed by mid-September - well below the average of eight named storms and three hurricanes by this point. In fact, no hurricanes have formed at all in the Atlantic basin so far, a phenomenon that is being attributed to the strong El Niño conditions. This record-breaking quiet spell is unprecedented in the satellite era, which began in the 1960s. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific has seen more activity, with 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, three of which were major. The unusual calm in the Atlantic highlights the significant impact that El Niño can have on hurricane patterns.
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- Published
A new hurricane season record will be set this week as a historic and still strengthening El Niño stifles tropical development in the Atlantic.
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Niño → publish → Atlantic
To date, no hurricanes have formed in the basin, despite this week marking the peak of the season on average - and there's no sign of development in the near future.
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week → form → future
It means a new record will be be set for the latest date in the satellite era (1960s onward) without an Atlantic hurricane forming.
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hurricane → mean → era
Currently, the record is 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013.
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record → set → 2002
With few indications that there will be any development in the next week, this will mean the longest stretch into in a season where no hurricane has formed in the modern satellite era.
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hurricane → mean → era
In the eastern Pacific, where El Nino tends to strengthen hurricane activity, it has been fairly active season so far.
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it → tend → activity
There have been 13 named storms including five hurricanes, three of which were major.
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three → name → which
This is close to the number that would typically develop in the whole of an average season.
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that → develop → season
The latest, major hurricane Lowell, hit Hawaii this week with damaging winds, flooding rain and high waves.
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latest → hit → winds
Super El Niño continues to strengthen
Forecasters predicted the Atlantic hurricane season would be quieter than average.
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season → continue → ?
In May, the National Hurricane Center forecast a total of eight to 14 named storms, three to six of which would become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes.
uncertain
six → forecast → hurricanes
While El Niño is the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe.
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it → disrupt → globe
As wind patterns shift during an El Niño, upper winds over the Atlantic increase and this leads to more wind shear, where wind changes rapidly with height.
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wind → shift → height
Increased wind shear rips apart thunderstorms, preventing them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes.
El Niño is already on track to be one of the strongest on record, expected to peak in November or December.
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has said this El Niño will most likely be 'historic', exceeding the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
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Niño → rip → 1950
In addition to El Niño, Saharan dust has also helped suppress activity.
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dust → help → activity
Over the last week, dust and sand whipped up by winds in the Sahara have been transported thousands of miles from Africa.
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dust → whip → Africa
When this dry, dusty layer of air is directed across the Atlantic, it prevents storms from growing.
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it → direct → storms
It is expected that this will continue to cause quieter conditions over the next week at least.
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this → expect → week
Atlantic hurricane season runs until 30 November.
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season → run → November
