Beyond the ill-informed effort to demand an unnecessary salary cap in baseball, one of the primary points of discussion around the sport have been the decline in offensive production.
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one → inform → production
Strikeouts continue to increase, while league-wide batting averages have declined.
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averages → continue → ?
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page → contain → partners
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News → sign → wager
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that → create → newsroom
This "back in my day" thinking is wrong for any number of reasons, including the mountain of data we now have demonstrating it, but it ignores several key factors that have impacted the on-field product.
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that → include → product
Major League Baseball, though, realizes that the reduced run scoring environment doesn't always make for the most exciting viewing.
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environment → realize → viewing
One of their initial efforts to combat the surge in run prevention was to restrict infield shifting.
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One → combat → shifting
For years, infielders were allowed to stand virtually anywhere, including in some extreme cases, in the middle of the outfield.
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infielders → allow → outfield
Those shifts significantly reduced the likelihood of ground balls to the pull side turning into hits, as they had for most of baseball history.
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they → reduce → history
The league issued some specific guidelines about extreme positioning, essentially requiring shortstops and second basemen to remain on their side of second base, among other changes.
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league → issue → changes
Mostly, it worked.
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it → work → ?
League-wide, batting averages on ground balls surged after baseball instituted new rules.
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baseball → surge → rules
Here's how it's looked since 2018:
- 2018: .236
- 2019: .236
- 2020: .229
- 2021: .236
- 2022: .235
- 2023 (NEW RULES): .243
- 2024: .245
- 2025: .244
- 2026: .242
While still low, the mid-.240's represents a significant increase from the shift era.
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mid-.240 → look → era
Fans though, might not have noticed more ground ball hits, and the data bears that out.
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data → notice → that
For example, in 2018, there were nearly 54,000 at-bats that ended with a ground ball.
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that → be → ball
Ground ball batting average is up, but total overall hits haven't changed.
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hits → change → ?
Which is exactly what the league is hoping to address with its potential changes.
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league → hop → changes
Thanks to years of data analysis, baseball front offices know that the greatest likelihood of positive outcomes comes from hitting the ball in the air.
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likelihood → know → air
The best hitters in the league hit the ball hard, and hit in the air.
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hitters → hit → air
Thanks to the advent of pitch metrics, pitch shaping, and the endless parade of 100mph relievers, hitting in general has gotten harder than ever.
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hitting → hit → relievers
Front offices then, have prioritized finding players who might not make contact as frequently, but generate high-quality contact when they do.
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they → prioritize → contact
The data bears that out; outcomes on fly balls and line drives are significantly better than grounders.
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outcomes → bear → grounders
In 2018, for example, the league hit .402 with a .770 slugging percentage when hitting the ball in the air, compared to .236 with a .258 slugging percentage on ground balls.
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league → hit → balls
Here's the problem though, which is what MLB is hoping to address: thanks to the advent of Statcast and the limitless data now available to teams on hitter propensities, defensive positioning is now so good that teams are dramatically reducing success rates on fly balls and liners.
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teams → hop → balls
We'll get into the data in a minute, but here's a perfect example of this phenomenon from Monday night's NLCS game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers.
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example → get → Dodgers
To set the scene, the Dodgers had a rally going against Logan Henderson, putting runners at first and second base with nobody out in the top of the third inning in a 1-1 game.
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nobody → set → game
Henderson threw Freddie Freeman an awful 0-1 changeup that wound up right in the perfect hitting zone for a left-handed batter.
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that → throw → batter
Freeman crushed it, 106.4 mph with a 22 degree launch angle, straight to the right center field gap.
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Freeman → crush → gap
Balls put in play with those characteristics are hits 84% of the time, per the league's Statcast page.
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Balls → put → page
Instead, right fielder Sal Frelick was positioned perfectly, and ran the ball down without even needing to dive.
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Frelick → position → ball
Instead of a bases-clearing double that scores two runs and sets up a potential big inning, it's a fly ball out.
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it → clear → inning
Want to know why offense is down?
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offense → want → ?
Despite their reputation as a "play the game the right way" old-school, "back in my day" team, the Brewers use analytics as much, or more, than any team in baseball.
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Brewers → play → baseball
Their front office analyzes every single batted ball from Freddie Freeman against right-handed pitchers throwing exactly the type of pitches Logan Henderson throws, then tells their fielders to set up where he's most likely to hit the ball.
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he → analyze → ball
And it might have helped them win game two by preventing a big inning.
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them → help → inning
Sure enough, league-wide, teams have gotten increasingly good at limiting offense on fly balls and line drives thanks to defensive positioning.
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teams → get → positioning
- 2018 .402/.770
- 2019 .417/.837
- 2020 .409/.809
- 2021 .401/.784
- 2022 .389/.733
- 2023 .399/.773
- 2024 .383/.731
- 2025 .385/.735
- 2026 .382/.729
It's still significantly better to hit the ball in the air than on the ground, but as the data shows, league-wide batting averages on fly balls has dropped dramatically, a whopping 35 points from the "juiced ball" 2019 season, and roughly 20 points from 2018 or 2021.
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averages → hit → 2018
That's why offense is down; teams are increasingly good at positioning their fielders.
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teams → position → fielders
And MLB might be looking to stop it.
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MLB → look → it
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia
