On May 13, 2022, then-White House Middle East envoy Brett McGurk asked his boss how he liked his job.
uncertain
he → ask → job
Joe Biden, he’d noticed, had been a chatty, expressive vice president, but had grown quieter in a way that wasn’t just about his age.
asserted
that → notice → age
“There’s no joy in it,” Biden responded.
asserted
Biden → ’ → it
“That’s the difference.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
McGurk’s new memoir cataloguing two grim years of trying to negotiate between American and regional officials is, among other things, a set of portraits of miserable world leaders:
- There’s the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who “seemed annoyed to be there” when the Americans showed up to ask for help with oil prices.
asserted
Americans → catalogue → prices
- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, pressed by Biden to negotiate, “seemed lost, used to meetings that started nowhere and ended there.”
asserted
that → press → meetings
- Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi “looked down at his shoes shuffling on the carpet” as “something was weighing on him.”
-
asserted
something → look → him
Biden took out his own irritation on the short-lived Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, telling him, “Don’t be a phony, man.”
asserted
Biden → take → him
Lapid, in turn, “recoiled.”
asserted
Lapid → recoil → turn
This narrative of the woes of leadership could serve as a cautionary tale for the few dozen men and women in both of America’s political parties currently searching their souls and consulting their spouses about whether to run for president.
uncertain
narrative → serve → president
Journalists typically treat these deliberations as theater.
asserted
Journalists → treat → theater
But even the people most obviously preparing to run take them more seriously than you’d imagine.
asserted
you → prepare → them
Win or lose, a candidate’s campaign will consume their life and their loved ones’; a victory guarantees their life will change forever.
asserted
life → win → life
So while Vice President JD Vance’s aides right now appear quite confident he’ll run, they also sincerely believe that he hasn’t yet — totally — decided.
asserted
he → appear → ?
Vice presidents are special: They have already paid the price of national office, getting far less in return than their bosses.
asserted
They → pay → bosses
But one Republican elder who likes Vance is advising against it: He suggests Vance return to Ohio, get to work reinventing trade education or some other worthy task, and run for president as the Hillbilly Elegy guy, rather than Donald Trump’s shadow.
uncertain
Vance → like → shadow
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s supporters, meanwhile, swear he hasn’t taken any steps toward running, much less decided on it.
asserted
he → swear → it
They also caution people against saying he’s not running, however: He hasn’t decided anything.
asserted
He → caution → anything
On the Democratic side, we assume they’re all running — California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Sens. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., and Cory Booker, D-N.J., and the rest.
asserted
they → assume → side
But they might want to read McGurk’s book and think about whether they really want the job.
uncertain
they → want → job
Because oddly, of all the distinguishing qualities of successful presidential candidates, ambition turns out to be perhaps the most salient.
asserted
ambition → distinguish → candidates
One former Biden administration official recently quipped that their money was on Maryland Gov. Wes Moore for the Democratic nomination, because he has the single quality you most need to become president: really, really wanting to be president.
asserted
you → quip → quality
The potential candidates will also hear more cynical arguments in favor of running no matter what.
asserted
candidates → hear → running
ABC News observed in 2024: “there are also a lot of benefits, even if you lose: better job opportunities, increased public profiles and the chance to build up a war chest for the next run.”
asserted
you → observe → run
The Aporia
