John Healey should “stay the course” and continue repairing the UK’s public finances, the International Monetary Fund’s top economist has said, after the fund lifted its growth forecast for Britain.
asserted
fund → stay → Britain
Little more than a fortnight before Healey’s first budget, Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s economic counsellor, said the UK “stands out” among G7 countries in having a plan to narrow its deficit.
asserted
UK → say → deficit
“The UK has already started a consolidation process,” she said.
asserted
she → start → process
“The message for the UK is simply, stay the course.”
asserted
message → stay → course
Tenreyro, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, was speaking at the launch of the IMF’s twice-yearly World Economic Outlook (WEO) at the Fund’s annual meetings in Bangkok.
asserted
Tenreyro → speak → Bangkok
Healey is under pressure to announce a generous energy support package in the budget, before the sharp rise in energy bills expected in January.
asserted
Healey → announce → January
But in its WEO, the IMF advises member governments against across-the-board subsidies, saying any support should be “temporary, targeted and non-distortionary”.
asserted
support → advise → subsidies
In a fillip for the chancellor, who is poised to arrive in Bangkok later this week, the IMF has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK this year, but expects a modest slowdown in 2027 as higher energy prices take their toll.
asserted
prices → poise → toll
Responding, Healey said: “conflict in the Middle East and Europe is hitting people in the UK and around the world.
asserted
conflict → respond → world
But Britain’s economy is showing strong international resilience in the face of these challenges.”
asserted
economy → show → challenges
The IMF predicted GDP growth of 1.3% for the UK this year – up 0.3 percentage points from its most recent update in July.
asserted
IMF → predict → July
UK GDP growth has been stronger than expected in early 2026, at 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.5% in the second quarter.
asserted
growth → expect → quarter
The Office for National Statistics has pointed to the strong expansion of AI-related businesses as one factor behind the upside surprise.
asserted
Office → point → surprise
However, the IMF warned that prolonged high oil prices and rising interest rates meant growth was likely to “edge down” in 2027, “as higher energy prices and long-term interest rates weigh on consumption and investment”.
asserted
prices → warn → consumption
It cut its UK growth forecast for next year modestly to 1.2%, from 1.3%.
asserted
It → cut → %
Markets have been revising up their expectations of future inflation and interest rates across big economies, since the Middle East conflict re-escalated in the summer.
asserted
conflict → revise → summer
The Bank of England’s nine-member monetary policy committee is now widely expected to raise the policy rate at its November meeting – echoing similar moves by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.
asserted
committee → expect → Japan
Mortgage rates in the UK have already been rising in response to higher funding costs for banks in financial markets.
asserted
rates → rise → markets
BoE policymaker Megan Greene argued on Tuesday morning that the IMF’s growth upgrade was proof that UK interest rates should be higher.
asserted
rates → argue → morning
Speaking to the Atlantic Council at the International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok, Greene argued that interest rates were currently not very restrictive.
“There’s more recently been some labour market data that has also suggested that maybe slack in the labour market has peaked, so the labour market is loose,” Greene said.
uncertain
Greene → speak → market
The IMF singled out the UK as among the countries – also including Japan – where core inflation, which excludes volatile commodities such as energy, is not expected to return to the 2% target until late next year.
asserted
which → single → year
It expects average inflation in the UK to be 3.3% this year, and to remain at 2.8% in 2027 – a challenge for Healey and the prime minister, Andy Burnham, who are promising to offer voters a “breathing space” from rising costs.
asserted
who → expect → costs
Healey will spend little more than 24 hours in the Thai capital before flying home to put the finishing touches to his 28 October budget.
asserted
Healey → spend → budget
He is expected to focus on plans to devolve more tax revenues to mayoralties, alongside measures to help households cope with higher energy bills before the winter.
asserted
households → expect → winter
A string of other challenging decisions, including when the UK should be aiming to spend 3% of GDP on defence, is expected to be delayed until a big spending review at some point next year.
asserted
UK → include → point
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned this week that the budget would be a “work of fiction” unless Healey explained how he would deal with what it said were £35bn of future spending pressures.
asserted
it → warn → pressures
The Aporia
