This article analyzes contemporary global conflicts, drawing parallels with historical events like World War I and the Russian Revolution, emphasizing the complexity introduced by rapid technological advancements and interconnectedness. It discusses how modern wars, such as those in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and West Asia, are longer and more intertwined with economic and geopolitical dynamics, making them harder to resolve. The author notes that traditional theories about war struggle to explain these new realities, where decisive victories are rare and conflicts have far-reaching impacts beyond their immediate arenas of conflict.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-13,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Ejaz Haider, writing for Dawn, examines the current global climate and its potential to lead to a new era of warfare similar to the prelude to World War I. He references William Butler Yeats' poem *The Second Coming*, which was written against the backdrop of World War I, the flu pandemic, and the Russian Revolution, highlighting an inflection point in history marked by chaos and uncertainty.
Haider notes that contemporary conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and West Asia are driven by rapid technological advancements. In Ukraine, for instance, the pace of innovation on the battlefield is unprecedented, making traditional methods of containing technology like nuclear weapons nearly impossible. This digital interconnectedness means that the impacts of war extend far beyond the immediate combat zones.
The author argues that as global tensions rise with hypersonic weapons and threats of nuclear brinkmanship from leaders such as Trump and Putin, the post-World War II international order is deteriorating. He predicts an increased likelihood of a larger global conflict, where power dynamics shift towards Realist principles emphasizing anarchy and military strength.
Written for “New Age Of War” on 2026-10-13,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
“And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?”
*— William Butler Yeats, The Second Coming*
OPENING NOTEWilliam Butler Yeats’ chilling 1920 poem had a backdrop: World War I, the flu pandemic, the Russian Revolution and a sense of impending doom, an inflection point.
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poem → come → doom
The gyre is widening and turning again.
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gyre → widen → ?
As wars rage in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and West Asia, it is important to understand what’s happening and why.
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what → rage → Europe
Questions abound.
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Questions → abound → ?
The answers are not easy to come by, given the unknowns.
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answers → come → unknowns
Here I intend to analyse how we have got here and what lies ahead.
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what → intend → ?
In the final section I also discuss how we theorise about war and why.
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we → discuss → war
Wars bring death and destruction.
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Wars → bring → death
Technology helps.
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Technology → help → ?
In our era, the pace of technological innovation (the Ukraine frontline is an example) has put Moore’s law on steroids.
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frontline → put → steroids
As the ongoing wars show, sequestering digital tech (like states did with nuclear weapons) and denying it to the adversaries is becoming increasingly difficult.
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states → show → adversaries
Physical interconnectedness means the effects of war will spread beyond the spaces in which it is being fought; digital is non-spatial.
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digital → mean → which
Result: conflicts are creating ever more complex second- and third-order effects.
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conflicts → create → effects
War has become compounded.
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War → become → ?
Commanders no longer stand on a knoll and cast Napoleon’s coup d’œil, the glance to judge the raging battle, and dispatch runners with new instructions.
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Commanders → stand → instructions
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its cascading effects is a case in point, as are strikes by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refineries that, in conjunction with the war against Iran, have created an oil refineries crisis, forcing US President Donald Trump to ask Kyiv to go easy on those targets.
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that → cascade → targets
Attacking Russia’s oil refineries is great targeting for Ukraine.
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Attacking → attack → Ukraine
The war has also impacted US domestic politics and prices, not just the fuel price but also the bond market and its impact on mortgage payments.
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war → impact → payments
From the wars in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and West Asia and the changing balance between the United States, China and Russia, contemporary conflicts are becoming longer, more interconnected and harder to resolve.
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conflicts → change → States
Theories that once helped us understand war struggle to keep up.
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us → help → war
Attrition, technological disruption, economic warfare and geopolitical rivalry are producing conflicts with no obvious finish line and an international system increasingly incapable of containing them
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Attrition → produce → them
X starts a war.
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X → start → war
Y fights back.
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Y → fight → ?
Where in time and space does it end?
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it → end → time
Armies want decisive victories.
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Armies → want → victories
Wars, increasingly, remain indecisive.
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Wars → remain → ?
Victory becomes contested.
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Victory → become → ?
Since World War II there have been many cases of tactical successes failing to achieve a war’s political objectives.
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successes → fail → objectives
That has now become a near-consistent menace for the stronger parties.
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That → become → parties
Allied with it is what I call the ‘arena problem’, a direct outcome of compounding.
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call → ally → compounding
The clash percolates into ether (information war, influence operations, cyber-attacks), financial and commodities markets, shipping and insurance (resulting in energy volatility, food insecurity, shortages of raw materials in petrochemical industries, the list is long).
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list → percolate → industries
The kinetic embracing the non-kinetic in a new dialectic.
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kinetic → embrace → dialectic
The element of compounding and the absence of finish lines throw up another problem.
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element → throw → problem
War with its many battles is morphing into protracted conflicts that contain within them iterative wars and their battles, interspersed with pauses of uneasy, tenuous peace.
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that → morph → peace
As Nadia Schadlow, Trump’s former Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategy, has argued in a recent article for Foreign Affairs (‘America’s Attrition Trap’), belligerents increasingly have non-negotiable objectives.
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belligerents → argue → objectives
That leaves little room for compromise and makes conflicts intractable and wars within those conflicts attritional.
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wars → leave → conflicts
Gone are the days of short, decisive wars when “relatively small numbers of sophisticated and expensive weapons systems” could devastate the enemy.
uncertain
numbers → go → enemy
Conflicts are now long and grinding.
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Conflicts → grind → ?
The world has learnt that the US does not have the industrial base that can rapidly replace many of the sophisticated munitions it has expended attacking Iran.
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it → learn → Iran
Worse, it doesn’t have a strategy to create the political conditions required for victory.
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it → have → victory
…and 165 more, not listed.
The Aporia
