A new Redfin analysis predicts that nationwide housing affordability will improve to pre-pandemic levels around 2031, assuming mortgage rates drop to 6% and home prices stabilize. However, in areas like Long Island and New York City, the recovery could take an additional decade due to rising home prices outpacing income growth. For instance, Nassau County on Long Island has seen a 5.3% annual increase in home prices compared to projected income growth of only 3.6%, making housing less affordable despite potential decreases in mortgage rates.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-12,
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Story summary
According to a new analysis by Redfin, America's housing affordability crisis could last until at least 2027, with some areas facing even longer challenges. In major cities like New York City and Long Island, the situation is particularly dire, with home prices rising faster than incomes. For example, in Nassau County on Long Island, which Redfin ranks as the strongest seller's market nationally, home prices have increased by 5.3% over the past year, outpacing projected income growth of 3.6%. Nationwide affordability could return to pre-pandemic levels—where typical buyers spent about 30% of their household income on housing costs—by 2031, assuming mortgage rates drop to 6% and home prices grow by only 2.1% annually. However, if mortgage rates stay around 7.5% but home price growth halts, affordability might improve as late as April 2032.
Written for “Housing Affordability Crisis” on 2026-10-12,
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America’s housing affordability crisis could drag on for at least another five years — and for New Yorkers, the wait could stretch well beyond a decade.
uncertain
wait → drag → decade
Housing costs nationwide could return to their 2018 levels relative to household income by 2031, according to a new Redfin analysis — but buyers in New York City, Long Island and roughly half of the major metropolitan areas studied could face another decade of financial pain.
uncertain
buyers → return → pain
That optimistic national scenario assumes mortgage rates fall to 6% while annual home-price growth holds steady at 2.1%.
asserted
growth → assume → %
If rates remain around 7.5% but home prices stop rising, affordability could recover by April 2032 instead.
And in an even rosier — though unlikely — scenario, where rates drop to 6% and prices flatten, housing costs could return to their pre-pandemic benchmark by February 2029.
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costs → remain → February
But the picture is considerably bleaker in the Northeast and Midwest, where stubbornly rising home prices continue to outpace wage growth.
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prices → rise → growth
Long Island is feeling the squeeze particularly hard.
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Island → feel → squeeze
Nassau County, ranked the nation’s strongest seller’s market by Redfin, has seen home prices climb 5.3% over the past year, outpacing projected annual income growth of 3.6%.
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prices → rank → %
That’s a 1.7-percentage-point gap between home-price appreciation and expected income gains, leaving prospective buyers struggling to keep up in an already fiercely competitive market — even if mortgage rates fall to 6%.
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rates → ’ → %
That imbalance means affordability could take at least 10 years to return to 2018 levels, even if mortgage rates fall to 6%.
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rates → mean → %
New York City, Newark, New Brunswick and Philadelphia face similarly lengthy recoveries, along with Chicago, Boston and several other major markets.
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City → face → Chicago
Chicago home prices, for example, have surged 5.5% year over year, compared with projected annual income growth of 3.9%.
“It may seem counterintuitive that housing costs could return to normal sooner in the country’s most expensive markets than in a place like Chicago or Philly, but it comes down to the direction of home prices and incomes,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said in the company’s published analysis.
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Khan → surge → analysis
Redfin defines “normal” as a return to August 2018, when the typical American homebuyer needed to spend about 30% of household income on monthly housing payments, including mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and insurance, assuming a 20% down payment.
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homebuyer → define → payment
“But in many Midwest and East Coast markets, home prices are still climbing faster than incomes — so even if rates were to drop meaningfully, a buyer’s monthly payment wouldn’t return to something that feels normal anytime soon,” he added in the report.
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he → climb → report
Ironically, some of America’s notoriously expensive West Coast markets could recover much faster.
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some → recover → markets
San Jose, California, is closest to returning to its 2018 affordability levels, thanks to a 3.2% annual decline in home prices and projected wage growth of 6.5%.
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Jose → return → %
Under a scenario with mortgage rates at 7.5%, San Jose could return to its previous benchmark by October 2027.
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Jose → return → October
Austin, Texas, could follow in February 2028, while Oakland could reach that point by April 2028.
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Oakland → follow → April
Seattle and Portland are also among the markets positioned for relatively quick recoveries.
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Seattle → position → recoveries
San Francisco presents an unusual case.
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Francisco → present → case
Its housing costs briefly returned to 2018 levels when mortgage rates were around 7.25% in September, but soaring home prices — up 9.7% annually amid an AI-fueled wealth boom — threaten to push affordability further out of reach.
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prices → return → reach
At 7.5% mortgage rates, San Francisco could face another decade before costs normalize.
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costs → face → decade
Crucially, that doesn’t mean homes would suddenly become cheap.
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homes → mean → ?
In expensive markets such as San Jose and San Francisco, returning to 2018 affordability levels could still leave homeownership beyond the reach of many residents.
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returning → return → residents
The analysis examined 46 major metropolitan areas and modeled different combinations of mortgage rates, home-price growth and projected income gains.
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analysis → examine → rates
And while the scenarios offer some hope for frustrated house hunters, they are hypothetical projections rather than forecasts of what will actually happen.
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what → offer → hunters
“Many house hunters feel stuck between two bad options: Stretch themselves to buy at today’s rates, or wait for lower rates only to see prices climb further out of reach,” Khan said in the published report.
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Khan → feel → report
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