The Free Press
· collected 2026-09-09 · by Simon Sebag Montefiore
analysis
Historian Simon Sebag Montefiore has written an essay on who will win in the "tournament of power" in the Middle East, which is marked by competing alliances and rivalries between various countries including Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. According to Montefiore, a new era in the region's history has begun with the October 7 Wars, a conflict sparked by Hamas's actions three years ago. The article mentions several recent defense agreements and alliances formed among Middle Eastern countries, as well as their involvement in conflicts such as the Sudan war. 12 Middle Eastern powers are participating in the Sudan war, which is one of the worst humanitarian crises of the last three years.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-09,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Simon Sebag Montefiore, a historian and author, has written an essay titled "Who Will Rule the Middle East?" as part of his forthcoming book "The Cauldron", which explores the modern history of the region from 1900 to today. According to Montefiore, the current era marked by conflicts between Israel and America, versus Iran and its proxies, is a new phase in the Middle East's turbulent history, known as "The October 7 Wars". This spasm of conflict was unleashed three years ago when Hamas committed a "slaughter spree". Montefiore's essay questions which power will emerge dominant in this landscape defined by competing powers. His book tour is set to begin on October 1, with an event featuring him and journalist Bari Weiss discussing the history that shaped the modern Middle East.
Written for “Middle East Power Struggle” on 2026-09-09,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted
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stored, so you can find it in the original.
Leaning score +0.35 for article 7372 (medium confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-09
Its wars, rivalries, and upheavals have shaped the world for millennia, and show no signs of abating.
asserted
wars → shape → abating
And few people are better equipped to explain them than historian Simon Sebag Montefiore.
asserted
people → equip → Montefiore
In 2011, Dr. Montefiore released his bestseller, “Jerusalem,” an epic, 3,000-year history of a city whose influence extends far beyond its walls.
asserted
influence → release → walls
And in his forthcoming book, “The Cauldron,” he turns to the modern Middle East, tracing its history from 1900 to today.
asserted
he → turn → today
Today’s essay, which he has written specifically for us, takes on the question at the core of the region’s turbulent history.
asserted
he → write → history
In a landscape defined by competing powers vying for dominance, who will win?
asserted
who → define → dominance
For anyone seeking to understand the forces reshaping the Middle East—and the world—this is essential reading.
asserted
this → seek → East
And that’s not all.
asserted
that → ’ → ?
On October 1, Free Press founder and CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss returns to the stage for her first live event in nearly a year, sitting down with Montefiore for the opening night of his U.S. book tour.
asserted
Weiss → return → tour
The two will meet in uptown Manhattan for a wide-ranging conversation about the history that made the modern Middle East, and the forces shaping it now.
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that → meet → it
A limited number of tickets include a signed copy of “The Cauldron.”
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number → include → Cauldron
(Paying subscribers get early access to tickets until Thursday at 12 p.m. ET.)
asserted
subscribers → pay → ET
You won’t want to miss this.
asserted
You → want → this
Every day, it becomes clearer that the tournament of power known as The October 7 Wars—the spasm of conflict between Israel and America versus Iran and its proxies unleashed by Hamas’s slaughter spree three years ago—marks a new era in the turbulent history of the Middle East.
asserted
tournament → become → East
While America’s armed blockade may be starting to make gains against Iran (which, in turn, is being quietly supported by the other megapowers, China and Russia), the powers of the region are realigning themselves in profound and once unimaginable ways, trying out new alignments and conjunctions.
uncertain
powers → start → alignments
A month ago, on August 7, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, a self-declared “Islamic NATO” in which “any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all.”
asserted
attack → sign → them
Israel, meanwhile, has signed a huge defense contract with Greece and intensified its cooperation with India.
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Israel → sign → India
Iran has continued to hit Arab states—some advised on their defenses by Ukraine, others by Israel, all by America—while its ally Russia furnishes it with new missile technology.
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ally → continue → technology
And across the region, large and small powers are promoting neo-imperial interests—particularly in a new arena of competition for rising Middle East powers, East Africa.
asserted
powers → promote → powers
According to U.S. African plenipotentiary Massad Boulos (whose son Michael is married to President Donald Trump’s daughter Tiffany), a total of 12 Middle Eastern powers are participating in the Sudan war, the site of the worst humanitarian catastrophe of the last three years.
uncertain
total → accord → years
Which leaves a natural question: Out of all this, who will emerge to rule the Middle East?
asserted
who → leave → East
