The article provides predictions and betting advice for fights at UFC Vegas 122, focusing on two key matchups in detail: Brendan Allen versus Christian Leroy Duncan and Matheus Camilo versus Jai Herbert. For the middleweight bout between Allen and Duncan, it suggests that despite Duncan’s five straight wins against lower-level competition, his decision line of +500 is too high given the competitiveness expected, recommending a bet on Duncan to win by decision at +500 and the fight going the distance at +138. In the lightweight division, Camilo's prospects are highlighted as he trains out of Xtreme Couture with strong support from his coach, leading to a prediction that Camilo will secure a knockout victory over Herbert at odds of +150.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-10,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
The UFC returns to APEX this weekend for just the second time in eight cards.
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UFC → return → cards
With it having been a while since we’ve been in the warehouse that’s located in the middle of the desert, and we’ll have another 12 fights to enjoy and bet on.
Of the 12 fights, a whopping eight of them are projected to end inside distance.
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eight → locate → distance
Last week’s card saw 11 of 14 fights end via knockout or submission, so you’re seeing plenty of violence early in his fights these days.
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you → see → fights
Below we break down the best bets for UFC Vegas 122 as we bet on the entire card.
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we → break → card
Christian Leroy Duncan has won five straight, having defeated a lower level of competition compared to his opponent Brendan Allen.
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Duncan → win → opponent
Allen has fought the peak level at the division and has proved a lot of people wrong in his career.
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lot → fight → career
You’ll remember Allen was a massive underdog to Reiner De Ridder before thoroughly dominating him and winning late in that fight.
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Allen → remember → fight
Leroy Duncan is a sick athlete and loves to show off his explosive movements where he should be able to land power shots.
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he → love → shots
Though, he does waste some energy doing that, which concerns me in a five-round fight against Allen who has been there before.
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who → waste → Allen
Having said all of that, I think Leroy Duncan’s decision line of +500 is too high, considering I think this fight will be extremely competitive on the feet.
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fight → say → feet
If Leroy Duncan doesn’t throw too many spinning kicks, which I consider just tactically foolish against higher-level opponents.
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I → throw → opponents
I think he’s the side to target.
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he → think → ?
As a sort of hedge for his potential stupidity in that sense, I’ll target the fight to go the distance, and a smaller bet on Leroy Duncan to win by decision.
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I → target → decision
PREDICTION: Fight goes the distance (+138, FanDuel) | Leroy Duncan wins by decision (+500, BetMGM)
Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
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Duncan → go → Herbert
In the lightweight division, Matheus Camilo faces off with Jai Herbert.
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Camilo → face → Herbert
Herbert, 38, has done a good job in his career as a volume striker with some power, but also has poor durability on the offensive side.
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Herbert → do → side
Herbert infamously knocked down Ilia Topuria in a fight that wound up being against the former champion in the division.
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that → knock → division
Topuria would go on to brutally knock Herbert out in that 2022 fight, where we had no idea how high-level Topuria would become.
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Topuria → go → idea
If you want to back Herbert, you’re hoping he doesn’t get clipped by Damilo, who is fighting at Xtreme Couture, one of the highest-level MMA gyms out there.
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who → want → gyms
Coach Eric Nicksick is very high on Camilo; I’ll take the 25-year-old prospect in this spot and do it brutally.
Target Camilo to win by knockout here, as he has some serious power in his hands.
PREDICTION: Camilo by KO/TKO (+150, DraftKings)
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UFC Vegas 122 full card picks
Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza: Fight goes the distance (-275, BetMGM) for parlays
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III: Kamaka III ML (+135, Novig)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi: Wellmaker by decision (+300, FanDuel)
Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert:
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Fight → take → Meerschaert
Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim: Prado wins and the fight starts round two (+110, DraftKings)
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fight → win → round
Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan: Either fighter to win by KO/TKO in round 1 (+300, FanDuel)
Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro: Under 1.5 rounds (-158, Polymarket)
Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris: Over 1.5 rounds (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook) | Fight goes the distance (+320, FanDuel)
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Fight → win → distance
Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova: Zhelezniakova by decision (+239, Kalshi)
Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto: Kareckaite by decision (+158, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.
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he → trust → betting
During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons.
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he → showcase → market
While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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return → bet → 2022
The Aporia
